PERT - Accounting
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Monte Carlo Analyses
Refer to the activities defined in the Unit II Assignment, and complete the following tasks.
Create a table of the activities, and identify logical relationships by identifying predecessors.
Estimate activity durations using three-point estimates.
Create a PERT schedule, and identify the project critical path.
Using the breakfast schedule spreadsheet as a guide (along with the Monte Carlo simulation supplement in Chapter 7 of the textbook), model your schedule using Monte Carlo analysis (10 trial runs minimum).
To assist as you create your assignment, watch the Backward Pass Simulation video.Also watch the Forward Pass Simulation video.A transcript and closed captioning are available once you access the videos. Submit your PERT and Monte Carlo analyses for grading along with a one-page written summary of the results and a brief discussion of how the results could be used to inform a project schedule risk plan. APA Style and outside sources are not a requirement for this assignment.
Breakfast schedule
Number Activity Predecessor Best-Case Likely Worst-Case Duration Var
1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator Start 0.25 0.5 1.5 0.63 0.04
2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 1 0.15 0.5 1 0.53 0.02
3 Place hash brown pan on stove 2 0.1 0.5 0.75 0.48 0.01
4 Place toast in toaster 7 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.03
5 Cook eggs 7 3 5 8 5.17 0.69
6 Cook bacon 7 2 5 9 5.17 1.36
7 Cook hash browns 3 4 10 15 9.83 3.36
8 Brew coffee 1 8 10 17 10.83 2.25
9 Make toast 4 3 4 7 4.33 0.44
10 Pour orange juice 7,12 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.03
11 Pour coffee 7 0.15 1 1.5 0.94 0.05
12 Plate breakfast food 7 1 2 3 2 0.11
13 Serve coffee 12, 8 0.25 1 1.5 0.96 0.04
14 Serve breakfast 13 0.5 1 2.5 1.17 0.11
Montesim
Task Duration Number Activity Predecessor Best-Case Likely Worst-Case Duration Variance Alpha Beta Random Path Length
Start 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Start-1-2-3-7-4-9-12-13-14 22.95
0.4222170332 1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator Start 0.25 0.5 1.5 0.63 0.04 1.97 4.59 1.2119453806 Start-1-2-3-7-5-12-13-14 23.35
0.6769830058 2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 1 0.15 0.5 1 0.53 0.02 3.47 4.40 0.6135447265 Start-1-8-13-14 14.40
0.4672271485 3 Place hash brown pan on stove 2 0.1 0.5 0.75 0.48 0.01 4.49 3.29 0.5519012756 Start-1-2-3-7-6-12,13,14 25.12
0.8910663783 4 Place toast in toaster 7 0.5 1 1.5 1.00 0.03 4.00 4.00 0.8696373594 Start-1-2-3-7-10-13-14 18.26
5.390282028 5 Cook eggs 7 3 5 8 5.17 0.69 3.40 4.44 4.686649307 Start-1-2-3-7-11-13-14 17.66
2.9362839974 6 Cook bacon 7 2 5 9 5.17 1.36 3.58 4.34 6.4528840491
9.7850473815 7 Cook hash browns 3 4 10 15 9.83 3.36 4.22 3.74 11.6100285506 Critical Path # 4
9.2181075497 8 Brew coffee 1 8 10 17 10.83 2.25 2.13 4.64 10.1933484745 Critical Path Start-1-2-3-7-6-12,13,14
3.7630771131 9 Make toast 4 3 4 7 4.33 0.44 2.33 4.67 3.419402797
1.2588603473 10 Pour orange juice 7,12 0.5 1 1.5 1.00 0.03 4.00 4.00 1.2829060646
0.8425246179 11 Pour coffee 7 0.15 1 1.5 0.94 0.05 4.53 3.20 0.6837473403 Trial Makespan Critical Path
1.9353738253 12 Plate breakfast food 7 1 2 3 2.00 0.11 4.00 4.00 1.6876766625 25.12 4
1.0646117484 13 Serve coffee 12, 8 0.25 1 1.5 0.96 0.04 4.44 3.40 0.9679059145 1 23.6450324413 4
0.7602949423 14 Serve breakfast 13 0.5 1 2.5 1.17 0.11 2.33 4.67 2.0226688964 2 18.9926192933 4
3 21.9178318135 2
4 19.5953349833 1
5 19.6338121236 2
Task Duration ES EF LS LF TS Critical Best Likely Worst 6 18.9220060358 4
Start 0 7 21.119853479 1
1 Retrieve ingredients from refrigerator 1.21 0 1.21 0.00 1.21 0.00 0.25 0.5 1.5 8 24.4865935314 4
2 Place egg and bacon pan on stove 0.61 1.21 1.83 1.21 1.83 0.00 TRUE 0.15 0.5 1 9 18.6410714108 2
3 Place hash brown pan on stove 0.55 1.83 2.38 1.83 2.38 0.00 TRUE 0.1 0.5 0.75 10 21.7883098832 2
4 Place toast in toaster 0.87 13.99 14.86 13.99 14.86 0.00 TRUE 0.5 1 1.5
5 Cook eggs 4.69 13.99 18.67 15.75 20.44 1.77 FALSE 3 5 8
6 Cook bacon 6.45 13.99 20.44 13.99 20.44 0.00 TRUE 2 5 9
7 Cook hash browns 11.61 2.38 13.99 2.38 13.99 0.00 TRUE 4 10 15
8 Brew coffee 10.19 1.21 11.41 11.93 22.13 10.72 FALSE 8 10 17
9 Make toast 3.42 14.86 18.28 17.02 20.44 2.16 FALSE 3 4 7
10 Pour orange juice 1.28 13.99 15.27 20.85 22.13 6.86 FALSE 0.5 1 1.5
11 Pour coffee 0.68 13.99 14.67 21.44 22.13 7.46 FALSE 0.15 1 1.5
12 Plate breakfast food 1.69 20.44 22.13 20.44 22.13 0.00 TRUE 1 2 3
13 Serve coffee 0.97 22.13 23.10 22.13 23.10 0.00 TRUE 0.25 1 1.5
14 Serve breakfast 2.02 23.10 25.12 23.10 25.12 0.00 TRUE 0.5 1 2.5
Duration chart
Trial CP Critical Path
0 23.0871724426 1
1 20.3963836741 4
2 21.3373924926 4
3 17.3076145502 1
4 23.7122478765 4
5 19.4734548334 1
6 20.2547083104 2
7 25.6512534416 1
8 24.6239616244 1
9 21.778658588 1
10 22.171363934 4
Schedule Duration
CP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 23.087172442587853 20.396383674087218 21.337392492578662 17.307614550234053 23.7122478765293 19.473454833375484 20.25470831038686 25.651253441649249 24.623961624415568 21.778658588040265 22.171363934040073
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