Managing in a Global Economy - Management
In the powerpoint page 3 and 4 every points
take care instruction page 2 and 5
300-400 words
Managing in a Global Economy Fall 2021
Comparative Analysis of the BRICS
1
2
Assignments Structure
Structure assignments as follows:
Introduction – What is the question?
Introduction – Why is it relevant ?
Introduction - State your conclusion
Discussion -
Conclusion -
Identify and discuss the major issues
State your conclusion + summarize arguments
3
Comparative Analysis of the BRICS
We have studied the BRICS
We have seen that this has been one of the key concepts
We have seen that the BRICS are very different in terms of:
Economic structure
Political organization
Culture
4
What do they have in common ?
What are the differences ?
What do the BRICS have in common ?
What are the differences?
Are the BRICS becoming more like each other?
Are the BRICS becoming more different from each other ?
5
What I am looking for
A clear and precise introduction
A discussion:
Major differences
Major similarities
A conclusion:
Two major differences
Two major similarities
MANAGING IN A GLOBAL
ECONOMY
FALL 2021
Lesson 1
Jean Ergas
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1
RISKY BUSINESS
Debt restructuring
Euro-zone bailouts! Who’s next?
Is the Eurozone crisis over ?
Is the best outcome scenario for the Eurozone
stagnation ?
Central banks diversifying their reserves - is
this the end of the US Dollar’s primacy ?
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EUROPEAN UNION
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EURO-ZONE
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DOES IT SOUND CONFUSING?
IT IS!
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IN THIS COURSE WE SHALL REVIEW
Major risks facing companies - to name a
few!
Foreign exchange
Interest rate
Credit risk
Political risk
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FINANCING STRATEGIES
We shall review some basic financing
strategies
How can we raise finance ?
Short term – long term
Secured – unsecured
US Dollars – Foreign Currency
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CHANGING RISKS
How are the risks facing companies changing?
Have the challenges facing companies changed
with globalization?
What are the pluses and minuses of globalization?
Has the rise of an IT driven economy removed the size
requirement for having a global presence ?
Are we starting to see a move away from outsourcing and
towards on – shoring ?
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EMERGING MARKETS – YESTERDAY’S
PAPERS ?
Emerging economy currencies plummeting
Emerging economy massive:
Domestic
Foreign
Capital flight
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EMERGING MARKETS – TIME FOR A
RE-THINK ?
Emerging economies are facing both:
External - Shift in monetary policy
Internal - Lack of infrastructure - inflation
Challenges
Do we need to rethink the role of the
emerging economies ?
Is the pendulum moving back to the
developed nations ?
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“TOP DOWN” ECONOMY
Are we in a “top down “ economy ?
Will we need to focus more on government
policy?
Will the central banks and supra-nationals
save the world again ?
Will purely commercial considerations count
for less ?
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WHAT INSTRUMENTS ARE AVAILABLE
TO MANAGE THE RISK
We shall look at the different instruments to
manage risk
We shall learn their advantages and
disadvantages
We shall above all learn to identify risk
exposures!
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TWO LEVELS OF RISK MANAGEMENT
- TOP DOWN
We shall look at a two tiered approach to risk
management:
Medium to long term – “top down “
Risk mitigation - strategic response
We change inputs - reduce raw material
price risk
We change clients - reduce credit risk
We change markets -reduce country risk
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COMMODITY INDEX
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COPPER PRICE
2/
18
/2
01
1
1/
5/
20
11
11
/2
2/
20
10
10
/8
/2
01
0
8/
25
/2
01
0
7/
12
/2
01
0
5/
28
/2
01
0
4/
13
/2
01
0
2/
25
/2
01
0
1/
12
/2
01
0
11
/2
7/
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09
10
/1
4/
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09
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
copper price 2009-2010
copper price
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OIL PRICE
Ja
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08
Ap
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08
Ju
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8
O
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-0
8
Ja
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Ap
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Ju
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O
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9
Ja
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Ap
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Ju
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O
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-1
0
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Oil price 2008-2010
Oil price
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TWO LEVELS OF RISK MANAGEMENT -
BOTTOM UP
SHORT TERM
We work with the situation “as is”!
Contracted and projected cash flows
Expenses
Revenues
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FOREIGN INVESTMENT
Why are FDI exposures different from commercial
exposures ?
What measures can companies take to protect
themselves from the risks of foreign direct investment
?
What is changing in the directional flows of foreign
direct investment
Is trade liberalization deterring or encouraging
foreign direct investment ?
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FOREIGN INVESTMENT
Financing strategies for multinationals
Advantages and disadvantages
Availability of capital - depth of capital
markets
Cost of capital - interest rate differentials
Cost of capital - stricter covenants
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ALTERNATIVE FINANCING STRATEGIES
Project finance
Buyer finance
Seller finance
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ALTERNATIVE FINANCING STRATEGIES
These strategies are often supported by:
Government agencies - Export Credit Agencies
Export – Import Bank of the United States
OPIC - Overseas Private Investment
Corporation
Supranational institutions
World Bank Group
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ALTERNATIVE FINANCING STRATEGIES
How does the relative availability of ECA
financing drive off-shoring decisions ?
How can companies minimize their costs and
increase their capital availability via these
vehicles ?
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TRANSFORMATION OF THE WORLD
ECONOMY
The Global Economy has since 1945 gone
through an Extensive Transformation
We can distinguish 3 phases
1. The domestic economy
2. The multi-national economy
3. The global economy
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THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY 1945-1960
US companies produce and sell primarily in
the USA
Foreign markets seen primarily as sources for
raw materials
There are two convertible currencies
- The US Dollar and the Swiss Franc
- The US Dollar replaces the pound Sterling
UK
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THE WORLD SITUATION
Large gap between the US economy and
ROW
Europe recovering from the Second World
War
Large part of the world controlled by
Communist regimes
Large part of the world still controlled by
colonialist powers
Resources are channeled through the
colonialist power
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COMMUNIST WORLD IN 1950
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TRANSFORMATION OF THE GLOBAL
ECONOMY
Following extensive aid from the Marshall Plan
Marshall Plan 1947-1951
US Dollars 13 Billion – US GDP US Dollars 258
billion
By 1951 all recipients had surpassed their pre-
war economic level
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TRANSFORMATION OF THE GLOBAL
ECONOMY
German economy leads the European
recovery
Foundation of the European Common Market
Six members - now it is called the European
Union
Inter European trade explodes!
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MARSHALL PLAN
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COMMON MARKET FOUNDING MEMBERS
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TRANSFORMATION OF THE GLOBAL
ECONOMY
While Europe re-asserts itself in
Asia , Japan becomes the dominant
economic power focus is on low cost
production and export
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THE MULTI-NATIONAL ECONOMY
1960 – 1980
Rapid growth of the European domestic
economies
Strong increase in internal consumption
US business moves abroad
US business establishes production sites in
each market
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GDP EXPANSION OF EU 1960-1980
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
GDP growth
(annual %)
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THE MULTI-NATIONAL ECONOMY
1960 – 1980
Europeans see themselves under attack by
US companies
Publication in France of the book “The
American Challenge”
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THE MULTI-NATIONAL ECONOMY
1960 – 1980
US goes off the gold standard 1971
End of Bretton Woods
Move towards floating exchange rates
Emergence of a foreign exchange market
Currency fluctuations become a major
concern
Founding of the G-6, later G- 7, in France
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GOLD PRICES
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THE MULTI-NATIONAL ECONOMY
1960 – 1980
A new player enters the global economy
The Middle East and the oil exporting nations
following two sharp oil price increases in the
1970’s
The balance of financial power shifts
Oil producers control a growing share of
currency flows
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OIL PRICE 1960-1980
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
Nominal
Inflation Adjusted
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THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 1980 – 1990
ACT 1
Move towards the opening of the Chinese
economy
Rapid development of the Asian economies
“Tigers”
Move towards liberalization “Perestroika” in the
Soviet Union
Fall in the price of crude oil
Allows developed economies to gradually emerge
from recession
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CHINA GDP 1980-1990
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
GDP growth (annual %)
GDP growth
(annual %)
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OIL PRICES 1980-1990
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
Nominal
Inflation Adjusted
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THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 1980 –
1990
ACT 1
First major international currency
agreements
Plaza Agreement 1985
Louvre Agreement 1987
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THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 1990– 2000
ACT 2
Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe
End of the Soviet Union
Founding of the European Union
From economic community to political
organization
Creation of the framework and introduction
of the Euro - the single currency
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EUROPEAN UNION IN 1992
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ORIGINAL EURO-ZONE
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THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 1990– 2000
ACT 2
Founding of NAFTA – North American Free
Trade Agreement
Rise of the BRICS
Reforms in Brazil and India positioning to
emerge as major economic powers
China growing rapidly – but still 10th
economic power
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NAFTA COUNTRIES
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INDIA GDP 1990-2000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
GDP growth (annual %)
GDP growth
(annual %)
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CHINA GDP 1990-2000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
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00
0
2
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8
10
12
14
16
GDP growth (annual %)
GDP growth
(annual %)
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THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 2000-2010
ACT 3
Rapid development of the financial markets
First speculative collapse - technology 2000
Loose monetary policy - creation of massive
bubbles
Explosion of BRIC growth
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THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 2000-2010
ACT 3
Financial Collapse
Collapse of global trade
Extraordinary measures by governments
acting together
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THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 2000-2010
ACT 3
Where are we now ?
Crisis in the developed economies
Rise of the BRICS
Rise of the commodity currencies
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GLOBAL GDP 2008-2010
2008 2009 2010
-1
0
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2
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4
5
6
GDP growth (annual %)
GDP growth
(annual %)
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BRICS GDP (% CHANGE) 2008-2010
2008 2009 2010
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Brazil
China
India
Russia
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AUSTALIAN DOLLAR VERSUS US
DOLLAR
2008-2010
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BRAZILIAN REAL VERSUS US DOLLAR
2008-2010
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CONSEQUENCES FOR GLOBAL
BUSINESSES
Macro - Increase focus on the government
role in the economy
Sovereign intervention key
Principal support for several developed
economies
In major emerging markets - state ‘s role in
economy fundamental
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MACRO – CHANGING STRUCTURE OF
THE CREDIT SYSTEM
Changed structure of the credit system
Strong government support for credit
institutions
Critical in assessment of counterparty risk
Have central banks evolved from being the
lenders of last resort to being the takers of
the last risk?
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MACRO - INCREASE FOCUS ON THE
GOVERNMENT ROLE IN THE ECONOMY
Dual demand stream in emerging markets
Consumption - retail consumers
Investment - government entities
Government investment in the emerging
economies:
Fueled demand for raw materials
And
pushed large infrastructure investment.
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MICRO – RISKS INCREASE - RISK
MANAGEMENT ESSENTIAL!
Companies seek to minimize production
costs
Supply chain grows longer - production
segmented in different countries
Quality control issues increase
Counterparty risk issues increase
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DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL
TRADE
Increasing liberalization
Reduction of tariff barriers
Opening of former socialist economies
Increased access to better transportation
Lower costs of communications
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ADVANTAGES OF INTERNATIONAL
TRADE
Allows each country to focus on its specific
advantage
Law of Comparative Advantage
Economies of scale = lower production costs
Lower production costs + bigger markets =
bigger profits
Increased international investment flows - +
capital for economic development
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NEW TRADE INITIATIVES !
Sovereign finances massively impacted by
the crisis
Sovereigns are now reducing spending
Sovereigns no longer able to stimulate
economy
Sovereigns are now seeking to grow
economies
via:
Bilateral trade agreements
Multi lateral trade agreements 67
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TRADE INITIATIVES COVER THE
WORLD ?
Free trade agreement between the US and the
EU
Free trade agreement between countries both
sides of the Pacific
Free trade agreement – Pacific Alliance:
Colombia
Mexico
Chile
Peru
Free trade discussions for Africa – from Cairo to
Cape Town !
68
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FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK
Effect of FX risk on company profits can be
substantial
If currency fluctuations cannot be offset by
price increases !
Volatility of foreign exchange rates – can
make planning difficult!
What factors might allow an exporter to raise
prices to offset a devaluation of the currency
of the sale?
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COUNTRY RISK
Insolvency of government entity
Who is your trade counterparty
Transfer risk – counterpart cannot remit
payment
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CEN – DIRECT INVESTMENT
Confiscation
Expropriation
Nationalization
Strategic Risk
Subsidization of local competitors
Import tariffs or restrictions
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THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL
SYSTEM
THE GOLD STANDARD
Gold standard basis for international financial
system in the 19th and 20th centuries
Rise of gold standard closely linked to
expansion of international trade in the 19th
century
Progressive adoption by the major economies
of the gold standard prior to World War 1
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THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL
SYSTEM
THE GOLD STANDARD
The gold standard underwent numerous modifications
Use of gold coins as medium of exchange - gold species
100 % gold backing of currency with gold and guarantee of
convertibility by each central bank -
Convertibility of US Dollar into gold – other currencies pegged to the US
Dollar = de –facto convertibility
This was the system designed in 1944 – Bretton Woods
This lasted until 1971 with conversion into gold
Smithsonian agreements December 1971 last attempt at reestablishing
fixed parities to US Dollar of major currencies
This agreements collapsed rapidly !
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THE GOLD STANDARD
Key arguments for the gold standard
Governments are limited to the amount of
money
that they can issue
Governments cannot print their way out of
debt!
What would have happened if in 2008
we had been on the Gold standard ?
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TRADE IMBALANCES BETWEEN
COUNTRIES ARE SETTLED BY
TRANSFERS OF GOLD
Deficit country ships gold to surplus country
Less gold = less money = lower internal price level
Lower price level = deficit country products cheaper
Products cheaper = + exports
But import prices higher due to lower wages
Consumers in deficit countries buy local products
Cheaper export products + buy local = deficit closes
What are the parallels to today’s situation – China vs.
US ?
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THE GOLD STANDARD COLLAPSES!
However this did not always work!
See in this instance the Great Depression
Much discussion about its causes!
Stock market speculation
Shrinking of the money supply
US tariff increases
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THE GOLD STANDARD COLLAPSES!
However, many countries abandoned the Gold Standard
to reflate their economies - notably the UK in 1931
US in 1933 / 1934 modifies currency relationship to gold
– dollar is devalued
The interwar years were the years of “beggar thy
neighbor”
These were the grim years of competitive devaluations
What parallels with today’s currency wars
following the Great Recession?
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THE GOLD STANDARD COLLAPSES!
The grim experience of the inter – war period
Competitive devaluations seen prolonging
the Great Depression and hastening the
outbreak of The Second World War
Led to decision to enhance economic
cooperation
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BRETTON WOODS AND FOUNDATION
OF THE IMF
In 1944 Bretton Woods agreements
Bretton Woods - avoid use of competitive devaluations
Founding of the IMF in 1945
IMF founded to administer Bretton Woods system
IMF also empowered to provide finance to member
countries to cover deficits and emergency balance of
payments financing
For example, during the oil shocks
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BRETTON WOODS AND FOUNDATION
OF THE IMF
Bretton Woods agreements start to weaken in the early
1960’s
Rise of US deficits
Loss of confidence in the US Dollar
+ sale of US Dollars for gold
Pressure on US to maintain FX rate
US ends convertibility into gold in 1968
US ends fixed exchange rates in 1971
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FLOATING EXCHANGE RATES
World moves towards floating exchange rates
European nations form ERM – Exchange Rate Mechanism
European nations form EMS – “the snake” European
Monetary System
European currencies linked to each other within
fluctuation bands
US Dollar floats vs. European currencies
Foreign exchange market booms!
Foreign exchange volatility very high!
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THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL
SYSTEM
US Dollar rises dramatically in the early 1980’s US fiscal
deficit +
Needs foreign financing US sells bonds
= + demand for US Dollars
This leads to Plaza Agreements in 1985
= concerted action by 5 governments
= reduction in US Dollar value
= boost to US economy in recession
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THE LOUVRE AGREEMENTS 1987
Aim of the Louvre Agreements was to stop
collapse in the
US Dollar - which created difficulties for non
US exporters
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COLLAPSE OF THE EMS
EMS collapses in 1992
German reunification
Germany needs to attract capital
Germany raises interest rates
Weaker European economies under pressure to maintain their
parities within EMS
Pressure greatest on Italy and UK
UK currency object of massive speculation!
UK and Italy exit!
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COLLAPSE OF THE EMS AND BIRTH OF
EURO PROJECT
From the ashes of the EMS rises the Euro
European Common Currency in Maastricht
Agreeement
Maastricht agreement cornerstone for
transformation of European Common Market
from economic to political entity
Europe would speak both politically and
financially with one voice!
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COLLAPSE OF THE EMS AND BIRTH OF
EURO PROJECT
There was fierce competition among the EU
countries to qualify for the Euro!
Strict criteria to accede to the Euro
GDP/Debt – Deficit/GDP but these were
waived!
Euro was above all a political priority!
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THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL
SYSTEM
Euro – no thanks !
Some countries did not join
Most notably – the United Kingdom, Sweden and Danmark
UK did not join for fear of loss of sovereignty
Also concern that Sterling value would suffer with inclusion
of traditionally high debt and high inflation currencies –
“Club Med” !
Lack of fiscal discipline seen as a major concern
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DO YOU THINK THAT THE UK WAS
RIGHT ?
UK deficit exceeded 12 % in 2010
UK now facing a drastic austerity program
Sterling era is over – UK no longer has the
power to print a reserve currency
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COLLAPSE OF THE EMS AND
BIRTH OF EURO PROJECT
Can the single currency work ?
Will the Euro survive – arguments for and
against ?
Euro zone countries are now managing their
economies within a fixed exchange rate
system
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COLLAPSE OF THE EMS AND BIRTH
OF EURO PROJECT
You cannot devalue your way out of a crisis
This is what Italy and France did …
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w or quality improvement; it was just all part of good nursing care. The goal for quality improvement is to monitor patient outcomes using statistics for comparison to standards of care for different diseases
e a 1 to 2 slide Microsoft PowerPoint presentation on the different models of case management. Include speaker notes... .....Describe three different models of case management.
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and word limit is unit as a guide only.
The assessment may be re-attempted on two further occasions (maximum three attempts in total). All assessments must be resubmitted 3 days within receiving your unsatisfactory grade. You must clearly indicate “Re-su
Trigonometry
Article writing
Other
5. June 29
After the components sending to the manufacturing house
1. In 1972 the Furman v. Georgia case resulted in a decision that would put action into motion. Furman was originally sentenced to death because of a murder he committed in Georgia but the court debated whether or not this was a violation of his 8th amend
One of the first conflicts that would need to be investigated would be whether the human service professional followed the responsibility to client ethical standard. While developing a relationship with client it is important to clarify that if danger or
Ethical behavior is a critical topic in the workplace because the impact of it can make or break a business
No matter which type of health care organization
With a direct sale
During the pandemic
Computers are being used to monitor the spread of outbreaks in different areas of the world and with this record
3. Furman v. Georgia is a U.S Supreme Court case that resolves around the Eighth Amendments ban on cruel and unsual punishment in death penalty cases. The Furman v. Georgia case was based on Furman being convicted of murder in Georgia. Furman was caught i
One major ethical conflict that may arise in my investigation is the Responsibility to Client in both Standard 3 and Standard 4 of the Ethical Standards for Human Service Professionals (2015). Making sure we do not disclose information without consent ev
4. Identify two examples of real world problems that you have observed in your personal
Summary & Evaluation: Reference & 188. Academic Search Ultimate
Ethics
We can mention at least one example of how the violation of ethical standards can be prevented. Many organizations promote ethical self-regulation by creating moral codes to help direct their business activities
*DDB is used for the first three years
For example
The inbound logistics for William Instrument refer to purchase components from various electronic firms. During the purchase process William need to consider the quality and price of the components. In this case
4. A U.S. Supreme Court case known as Furman v. Georgia (1972) is a landmark case that involved Eighth Amendment’s ban of unusual and cruel punishment in death penalty cases (Furman v. Georgia (1972)
With covid coming into place
In my opinion
with
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The ability to view ourselves from an unbiased perspective allows us to critically assess our personal strengths and weaknesses. This is an important step in the process of finding the right resources for our personal learning style. Ego and pride can be
· By Day 1 of this week
While you must form your answers to the questions below from our assigned reading material
CliftonLarsonAllen LLP (2013)
5 The family dynamic is awkward at first since the most outgoing and straight forward person in the family in Linda
Urien
The most important benefit of my statistical analysis would be the accuracy with which I interpret the data. The greatest obstacle
From a similar but larger point of view
4 In order to get the entire family to come back for another session I would suggest coming in on a day the restaurant is not open
When seeking to identify a patient’s health condition
After viewing the you tube videos on prayer
Your paper must be at least two pages in length (not counting the title and reference pages)
The word assimilate is negative to me. I believe everyone should learn about a country that they are going to live in. It doesnt mean that they have to believe that everything in America is better than where they came from. It means that they care enough
Data collection
Single Subject Chris is a social worker in a geriatric case management program located in a midsize Northeastern town. She has an MSW and is part of a team of case managers that likes to continuously improve on its practice. The team is currently using an
I would start off with Linda on repeating her options for the child and going over what she is feeling with each option. I would want to find out what she is afraid of. I would avoid asking her any “why” questions because I want her to be in the here an
Summarize the advantages and disadvantages of using an Internet site as means of collecting data for psychological research (Comp 2.1) 25.0\% Summarization of the advantages and disadvantages of using an Internet site as means of collecting data for psych
Identify the type of research used in a chosen study
Compose a 1
Optics
effect relationship becomes more difficult—as the researcher cannot enact total control of another person even in an experimental environment. Social workers serve clients in highly complex real-world environments. Clients often implement recommended inte
I think knowing more about you will allow you to be able to choose the right resources
Be 4 pages in length
soft MB-920 dumps review and documentation and high-quality listing pdf MB-920 braindumps also recommended and approved by Microsoft experts. The practical test
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One thing you will need to do in college is learn how to find and use references. References support your ideas. College-level work must be supported by research. You are expected to do that for this paper. You will research
Elaborate on any potential confounds or ethical concerns while participating in the psychological study 20.0\% Elaboration on any potential confounds or ethical concerns while participating in the psychological study is missing. Elaboration on any potenti
3 The first thing I would do in the family’s first session is develop a genogram of the family to get an idea of all the individuals who play a major role in Linda’s life. After establishing where each member is in relation to the family
A Health in All Policies approach
Note: The requirements outlined below correspond to the grading criteria in the scoring guide. At a minimum
Chen
Read Connecting Communities and Complexity: A Case Study in Creating the Conditions for Transformational Change
Read Reflections on Cultural Humility
Read A Basic Guide to ABCD Community Organizing
Use the bolded black section and sub-section titles below to organize your paper. For each section
Losinski forwarded the article on a priority basis to Mary Scott
Losinksi wanted details on use of the ED at CGH. He asked the administrative resident