computer model - Business & Finance
Solve problem 12 of Chapter 7(Page 259. 7-12)
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Introduction to
Management
Science
A Modeling and Case Studies Approach with Spreadsheets
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The McGraw-Hill/Irwin Series
Operations and Decision Sciences
OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
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QUANTITATIVE METHODS AND
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
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Spreadsheets,
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Rev. Confirming Pages
Introduction to
Management
Science
A Modeling and Case Studies Approach
with Spreadsheets
Fifth Edition
Frederick S. Hillier
Stanford University
Mark S. Hillier
University of Washington
Cases developed by
Karl Schmedders
University of Zurich
Molly Stephens
Quinn, Emanuel, Urquhart & Sullivan, LLP
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Rev. Confirming Pages
INTRODUCTION TO MANAGEMENT SCIENCE: A MODELING AND CASE STUDIES
APPROACH WITH SPREADSHEETS, FIFTH EDITION
Published by McGraw-Hill/Irwin, a business unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1221 Avenue
of the Americas, New York, NY, 10020. Copyright © 2014 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Hillier, Frederick S.
Introduction to management science : modeling and case studies approach with spreadsheets / Frederick
S. Hillier, Stanford University, Mark S. Hillier, University of Washington ; cases developed by Karl
Schmedders, University of Zurich, Molly Stephens, Quinn, Emanuel, Urquhart, Sullivan LLP.—Fifth
edition.
pages cm
ISBN 978-0-07-802406-1 (alk. paper)
1. Management science. 2. Operations research—Data processing. 3. Electronic spreadsheets. I. Hillier,
Mark S. II. Title.
T56.H55 2014
005.54—dc23
2012035364
The Internet addresses listed in the text were accurate at the time of publication. The inclusion of a
website does not indicate an endorsement by the authors or McGraw-Hill, and McGraw-Hill does not
guarantee the accuracy of the information presented at these sites.
www.mhhe.com
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To the memory of
Christine Phillips Hillier
a beloved wife and daughter-in-law
Gerald J. Lieberman
an admired mentor and one of the true giants
of our field
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vi
About the Authors
Frederick S. Hillier is professor emeritus of operations research at Stanford University. Dr.
Hillier is especially known for his classic, award-winning text, Introduction to Operations
Research, co-authored with the late Gerald J. Lieberman, which has been translated into well
over a dozen languages and is currently in its 9th edition. The 6th edition won honorable men-
tion for the 1995 Lanchester Prize (best English-language publication of any kind in the field)
and Dr. Hillier also was awarded the 2004 INFORMS Expository Writing Award for the 8th
edition. His other books include The Evaluation of Risky Interrelated Investments, Queueing
Tables and Graphs, Introduction to Stochastic Models in Operations Research, and Introduc-
tion to Mathematical Programming. He received his BS in industrial engineering and doctorate
specializing in operations research and management science from Stanford University. The
winner of many awards in high school and college for writing, mathematics, debate, and music,
he ranked first in his undergraduate engineering class and was awarded three national fel-
lowships (National Science Foundation, Tau Beta Pi, and Danforth) for graduate study. After
receiving his PhD degree, he joined the faculty of Stanford University, where he earned tenure
at the age of 28 and the rank of full professor at 32. Dr. Hillier’s research has extended into a
variety of areas, including integer programming, queueing theory and its application, statistical
quality control, and production and operations management. He also has won a major prize for
research in capital budgeting. Twice elected a national officer of professional societies, he has
served in many important professional and editorial capacities. For example, he served The
Institute of Management Sciences as vice president for meetings, chairman of the publications
committee, associate editor of Management Science, and co-general chairman of an interna-
tional conference in Japan. He also is a Fellow of the Institute for Operations Research and the
Management Sciences (INFORMS). He currently is continuing to serve as the founding series
editor for a prominent book series, the International Series in Operations Research and Man-
agement Science, for Springer Science 1 Business Media. He has had visiting appointments at
Cornell University, the Graduate School of Industrial Administration of Carnegie-Mellon Uni-
versity, the Technical University of Denmark, the University of Canterbury (New Zealand),
and the Judge Institute of Management Studies at the University of Cambridge (England).
Mark S. Hillier, son of Fred Hillier, is associate professor of quantitative methods at the
Michael G. Foster School of Business at the University of Washington. Dr. Hillier received
his BS in engineering (plus a concentration in computer science) from Swarthmore College.
He then received his MS with distinction in operations research and PhD in industrial engi-
neering and engineering management from Stanford University. As an undergraduate, he won
the McCabe Award for ranking first in his engineering class, won election to Phi Beta Kappa
based on his work in mathematics, set school records on the men’s swim team, and was
awarded two national fellowships (National Science Foundation and Tau Beta Pi) for gradu-
ate study. During that time, he also developed a comprehensive software tutorial package,
OR Courseware, for the Hillier–Lieberman textbook, Introduction to Operations Research.
As a graduate student, he taught a PhD-level seminar in operations management at Stanford
and won a national prize for work based on his PhD dissertation. At the University of Wash-
ington, he currently teaches courses in management science and spreadsheet modeling. He
has won several MBA teaching awards for the core course in management science and his
elective course in spreadsheet modeling, as well as a universitywide teaching award for his
work in teaching undergraduate classes in operations management. He was chosen by MBA
students in 2007 as the winner of the prestigious PACCAR award for Teacher of the Year
(reputed to provide the largest monetary award for MBA teaching in the nation). He also
has been awarded an appointment to the Evert McCabe Endowed Faculty Fellowship. His
research interests include issues in component commonality, inventory, manufacturing, and
the design of production systems. A paper by Dr. Hillier on component commonality won an
award for best paper of 2000–2001 in IIE Transactions. He currently is principal investigator
on a grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to lead student research projects that
apply spreadsheet modeling to various issues in global health being studied by the foundation.
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vii
About the Case Writers
Karl Schmedders is professor of quantitative business administration at the University
of Zurich in Switzerland and a visiting associate professor at the Kellogg School of Man-
agement of Northwestern University. His research interests include management science,
financial economics, and computational economics and finance. In 2003, a paper by Dr.
Schmedders received a nomination for the Smith-Breeden Prize for the best paper in the Jour-
nal of Finance. He received his PhD in operations research from Stanford University, where
he taught both undergraduate and graduate classes in management science, including a case
studies course. He received several teaching awards at Stanford, including the university-
wide Walter J. Gores Teaching Award. After a post-doc at the Hoover Institution, a think tank
on the Stanford campus, he became assistant professor of managerial economics and decision
sciences at the Kellogg School. He was promoted to associate professor in 2001 and received
tenure in 2005. In 2008 he joined the University of Zurich, where he currently teaches courses
in management science, spreadsheet modeling, and computational economics and finance. At
Kellogg he received several teaching awards, including the L. G. Lavengood Professor of the
Year Award. Most recently he won the best professor award of the Kellogg School’s Euro-
pean EMBA program (2008, 2009, and 2011) and its Miami EMBA program (2011).
Molly Stephens is a partner in the Los Angeles office of Quinn, Emanuel, Urquhart &
Sullivan, LLP. She graduated from Stanford with a BS in industrial engineering and an MS in
operations research. Ms. Stephens taught public speaking in Stanford’s School of Engineer-
ing and served as a teaching assistant for a case studies course in management science. As a
teaching assistant, she analyzed management science problems encountered in the real world
and transformed these into classroom case studies. Her research was rewarded when she won
an undergraduate research grant from Stanford to continue her work and was invited to speak
at INFORMS to present her conclusions regarding successful classroom case studies. Follow-
ing graduation, Ms. Stephens worked at Andersen Consulting as a systems integrator, expe-
riencing real cases from the inside, before resuming her graduate studies to earn a JD degree
with honors from the University of Texas School of Law at Austin. She is a partner in the
largest law firm in the United States devoted solely to business litigation, where her practice
focuses on complex financial and securities litigation.
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viii
Preface
We have long been concerned that traditional management science textbooks have not taken
the best approach in introducing business students to this exciting field. Our goal when ini-
tially developing this book during the late 1990s was to break out of the old mold and present
new and innovative ways of teaching management science more effectively. We have been
gratified by the favorable response to our efforts. Many reviewers and other users of the first
four editions of the book have expressed appreciation for its various distinctive features, as
well as for its clear presentation at just the right level for their business students.
Our goal for this fifth edition has been to build on the strengths of the first four editions.
Co-author Mark Hillier has won several schoolwide teaching awards for his spreadsheet mod-
eling and management science courses at the University of Washington while using the first
four editions, and this experience has led to many improvements in the current edition. We
also incorporated many user comments and suggestions. Throughout this process, we took
painstaking care to enhance the quality of the preceding edition while maintaining the distinc-
tive orientation of the book.
This distinctive orientation is one that closely follows the recommendations in the 1996
report of the operating subcommittee of the INFORMS Business School Education Task
Force, including the following extract.
There is clear evidence that there must be a major change in the character of the (introductory
management science) course in this environment. There is little patience with courses centered
on algorithms. Instead, the demand is for courses that focus on business situations, include
prominent non-mathematical issues, use spreadsheets, and involve model formulation and
assessment more than model structuring. Such a course requires new teaching materials.
This book is designed to provide the teaching materials for such a course.
In line with the recommendations of this task force, we believe that a modern introductory
management science textbook should have three key elements. As summarized in the subtitle
of this book, these elements are a modeling and case studies approach with spreadsheets.
SPREADSHEETS
The modern approach to the teaching of management science clearly is to use spreadsheets
as a primary medium of instruction. Both business students and managers now live with
spreadsheets, so they provide a comfortable and enjoyable learning environment. Modern
spreadsheet software, including Microsoft Excel used in this book, now can be used to do
real management science. For student-scale models (which include many practical real-world
models), spreadsheets are a much better way of implementing management science models
than traditional algebraic solvers. This means that the algebraic curtain that was so prevalent
in traditional management science courses and textbooks now can be lifted.
However, with the new enthusiasm for spreadsheets, there is a danger of going over-
board. Spreadsheets are not the only useful tool for performing management science analy-
ses. Occasional modest use of algebraic and graphical analyses still have their place and
we would be doing a disservice to the students by not developing their skills in these areas
when appropriate. Furthermore, the book should not be mainly a spreadsheet cookbook that
focuses largely on spreadsheet mechanics. Spreadsheets are a means to an end, not an end
in themselves.
A MODELING APPROACH
This brings us to the second key feature of the book, a modeling approach. Model formula-
tion lies at the heart of management science methodology. Therefore, we heavily emphasize
the art of model formulation, the role of a model, and the analysis of model results. We pri-
marily (but not exclusively) use a spreadsheet format rather than algebra for formulating and
presenting a model.
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Preface ix
Some instructors have many years of experience in teaching modeling in terms of for-
mulating algebraic models (or what the INFORMS Task Force called “model structuring”).
Some of these instructors feel that students should do their modeling in this way and then
transfer the model to a spreadsheet simply to use the Excel Solver to solve the model. We dis-
agree with this approach. Our experience (and the experience reported by many others) is that
most business students find it more natural and comfortable to do their modeling directly in
a spreadsheet. Furthermore, by using the best spreadsheet modeling techniques (as presented
in this edition), formulating a spreadsheet model tends to be considerably more efficient
and transparent than formulating an algebraic model. Another benefit is that the spreadsheet
model includes all the relationships that can be expressed in an algebraic form and we often
will summarize the model in this format as well.
Another break from tradition in this book (and several contemporary textbooks) is to virtually
ignore the algorithms that are used to solve the models. We feel that there is no good reason why
typical business students should learn the details of algorithms executed by computers. Within
the time constraints of a one-term management science course, there are far more important
lessons to be learned. Therefore, the focus in this book is on what we believe are these far more
important lessons. High on this list is the art of modeling managerial problems on a spreadsheet.
Formulating a spreadsheet model of a real problem typically involves much more than
designing the spreadsheet and entering the data. Therefore, we work through the process
step by step: understand the unstructured problem, verbally develop some structure for the
problem, gather the data, express the relationships in quantitative terms, and then lay out the
spreadsheet model. The structured approach highlights the typical components of the model
(the data, the decisions to be made, the constraints, and the measure of performance) and the
different types of spreadsheet cells used for each. Consequently, the emphasis is on the mod-
eling rather than spreadsheet mechanics.
A CASE STUDIES APPROACH
However, all this still would be quite sterile if we simply presented a long series of brief
examples with their spreadsheet formulations. This leads to the third key feature of this
book—a case studies approach. In addition to examples, nearly every chapter includes one or
two case studies patterned after actual applications to convey the whole process of applying
management science. In a few instances, the entire chapter revolves around a case study. By
drawing the student into the story, we have designed each case study to bring that chapter’s
technique to life in a context that vividly illustrates the relevance of the technique for aiding
managerial decision making. This storytelling, case-centered approach should make the mate-
rial more enjoyable and stimulating while also conveying the practical considerations that are
key factors in applying management science.
We have been pleased to have several reviewers of the first four editions express particular
appreciation for our case study approach. Even though this approach has received little use
in other management science textbooks, we feel that it is a real key to preparing students for
the practical application of management science in all its aspects. Some of the reviewers have
highlighted the effectiveness of the dialogue/scenario enactment approach used in some of
the case studies. Although unconventional, this approach provides a way of demonstrating the
process of managerial decision making with the help of management science. It also enables
previewing some key concepts in the language of management.
Every chapter also contains full-fledged cases following the problems at the end of the
chapter. These cases usually continue to employ a stimulating storytelling approach, so they
can be assigned as interesting and challenging projects. Most of these cases were developed
jointly by two talented case writers, Karl Schmedders (a faculty member at the University
of Zurich in Switzerland) and Molly Stephens (formerly a management science consultant
with Andersen Consulting). The authors also have added some cases, including several
shorter ones. In addition, the University of Western Ontario Ivey School of Business (the
second-largest producer of teaching cases in the world) has specially selected cases from
their case collection that match the chapters in this textbook. These cases are available on
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Rev. Confirming Pages
x Preface
the Ivey website, cases.ivey.uwo.ca/cases , in the segment of the CaseMate area designated
for this book. This website address is provided at the end of each chapter as well.
We are, of course, not the first to incorporate any of these key features into a management
science textbook. However, we believe that the book currently is unique in the way that it
fully incorporates all three key features together.
OTHER SPECIAL FEATURES
We also should mention some additional special features of the book that are continued from
the fourth edition.
• Diverse examples, problems, and cases convey the pervasive relevance of management
science.
• A strong managerial perspective.
• Learning objectives at the beginning of each chapter.
• Numerous margin notes that clarify and highlight key points.
• Excel tips interspersed among the margin notes.
• Review questions at the end of each section.
• A glossary at the end of each chapter.
• Partial answers to selected problems in the back of the book.
• Supplementary text material on the CD-ROM (as identified in the table of contents).
• An Excel-based software package (MS Courseware) on the CD-ROM and website that
includes many add-ins, templates, and files (described below).
• Other helpful supplements on the CD-ROM and website (described later).
A NEW SOFTWARE PACKAGE
This edition continues to integrate Excel 2010 and its Solver (a product of Frontline Systems)
throughout the book. However, we are excited to also add to this edition an impressive more
recent product of Frontline Systems called Risk Solver Platform for Education (or RSPE
for short). RSPE also is an Excel add-in and its Solver shares some of the features of the Excel
Solver. However, in addition to providing all the key capabilities of the Excel Solver, RSPE
adds some major new functionalities as outlined below:
• A more interactive user interface, with the model parameters always visible alongside the
main spreadsheet, rather than only in the Solver dialog box.
• Parameter analysis reports that provide an easy way to see the effect of varying data in a
model in a systematic way.
• A model analysis tool that reveals the characteristics of a model (e.g., whether it is linear
or nonlinear, smooth or nonsmooth).
• Tools to build and solve decision trees within a spreadsheet.
• The ability to build and run sophisticated Monte Carlo simulation models.
• An interactive simulation mode that allows simulation results to be shown instantly when-
ever a change is made to a simulation model.
• The RSPE Solver can be used in combination with computer simulation to perform simu-
lation optimization.
A CONTINUING FOCUS ON EXCEL AND ITS SOLVER
As with all the preceding editions, this edition continues to focus on spreadsheet modeling
in an Excel format. Although it lacks some of the functionalities of RSPE, the Excel Solver
continues to provide a completely satisfactory way of solving most of the spreadsheet models
encountered in this book. This edition continues to feature this use of the Excel Solver when-
ever either it or the RSPE Solver could be used.
Many instructors prefer this focus because it avoids introducing other complications that
might confuse their students. We agree.
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Rev. Confirming Pages
Preface xi
However, the key advantage of introducing RSPE in this edition is that it provides an all-in-
one complement to the Excel Solver. There are some important topics in the book (including
decision analysis and computer simulation) where the Excel Solver lacks the functionalities
needed to deal with these kinds of problems. Multiple Excel add-ins—Solver Table, Tree-
Plan, SensIt, RiskSim, Crystal Ball, and OptQuest (a module of Crystal Ball)—were intro-
duced in previous editions to provide the needed functionalities. RSPE alone now replaces all
of these add-ins.
OTHER SOFTWARE
Each edition of this book has provided a comprehensive Excel-based software package called
MS Courseware on the CD-ROM and website. RSPE replaces various Excel add-ins in this
package. Otherwise, the remainder of this package is being provided again with the current
edition.
This package includes Excel files that provide the live spreadsheets for all the various
examples and case studies throughout the book. In addition to further investigating the exam-
ples and case studies, these spreadsheets can be used by either the student or instructor as tem-
plates to formulate and solve similar problems. The package also includes dozens of Excel
templates for solving various models in the book.
MS Courseware includes additional software as well.
• Interactive Management Science Modules for interactively exploring certain manage-
ment science techniques in depth (including techniques presented in Chapters 1, 2, 5, 10,
11, 12, and 18).
• Queueing Simulator for performing computer simulations of queueing systems (used in
Chapter 12).
NEW FEATURES IN THIS EDITION
We have made some important enhancements to the fifth edition.
• A Substantial Revision of Chapter 1. In addition to some updates and a new end-of-
chapter case, the example at the heart of the chapter has been modernized to better attract
the interest of the students. The example now deals with iWatches instead of grandfather
clocks.
• A New Section Introduces …
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Next year the $2.8 trillion U.S. healthcare industry will finally begin to look and feel more like the rest of the business wo
evidence-based primary care curriculum. Throughout your nurse practitioner program
Vignette
Understanding Gender Fluidity
Providing Inclusive Quality Care
Affirming Clinical Encounters
Conclusion
References
Nurse Practitioner Knowledge
Mechanics
and word limit is unit as a guide only.
The assessment may be re-attempted on two further occasions (maximum three attempts in total). All assessments must be resubmitted 3 days within receiving your unsatisfactory grade. You must clearly indicate “Re-su
Trigonometry
Article writing
Other
5. June 29
After the components sending to the manufacturing house
1. In 1972 the Furman v. Georgia case resulted in a decision that would put action into motion. Furman was originally sentenced to death because of a murder he committed in Georgia but the court debated whether or not this was a violation of his 8th amend
One of the first conflicts that would need to be investigated would be whether the human service professional followed the responsibility to client ethical standard. While developing a relationship with client it is important to clarify that if danger or
Ethical behavior is a critical topic in the workplace because the impact of it can make or break a business
No matter which type of health care organization
With a direct sale
During the pandemic
Computers are being used to monitor the spread of outbreaks in different areas of the world and with this record
3. Furman v. Georgia is a U.S Supreme Court case that resolves around the Eighth Amendments ban on cruel and unsual punishment in death penalty cases. The Furman v. Georgia case was based on Furman being convicted of murder in Georgia. Furman was caught i
One major ethical conflict that may arise in my investigation is the Responsibility to Client in both Standard 3 and Standard 4 of the Ethical Standards for Human Service Professionals (2015). Making sure we do not disclose information without consent ev
4. Identify two examples of real world problems that you have observed in your personal
Summary & Evaluation: Reference & 188. Academic Search Ultimate
Ethics
We can mention at least one example of how the violation of ethical standards can be prevented. Many organizations promote ethical self-regulation by creating moral codes to help direct their business activities
*DDB is used for the first three years
For example
The inbound logistics for William Instrument refer to purchase components from various electronic firms. During the purchase process William need to consider the quality and price of the components. In this case
4. A U.S. Supreme Court case known as Furman v. Georgia (1972) is a landmark case that involved Eighth Amendment’s ban of unusual and cruel punishment in death penalty cases (Furman v. Georgia (1972)
With covid coming into place
In my opinion
with
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The ability to view ourselves from an unbiased perspective allows us to critically assess our personal strengths and weaknesses. This is an important step in the process of finding the right resources for our personal learning style. Ego and pride can be
· By Day 1 of this week
While you must form your answers to the questions below from our assigned reading material
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5 The family dynamic is awkward at first since the most outgoing and straight forward person in the family in Linda
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The most important benefit of my statistical analysis would be the accuracy with which I interpret the data. The greatest obstacle
From a similar but larger point of view
4 In order to get the entire family to come back for another session I would suggest coming in on a day the restaurant is not open
When seeking to identify a patient’s health condition
After viewing the you tube videos on prayer
Your paper must be at least two pages in length (not counting the title and reference pages)
The word assimilate is negative to me. I believe everyone should learn about a country that they are going to live in. It doesnt mean that they have to believe that everything in America is better than where they came from. It means that they care enough
Data collection
Single Subject Chris is a social worker in a geriatric case management program located in a midsize Northeastern town. She has an MSW and is part of a team of case managers that likes to continuously improve on its practice. The team is currently using an
I would start off with Linda on repeating her options for the child and going over what she is feeling with each option. I would want to find out what she is afraid of. I would avoid asking her any “why” questions because I want her to be in the here an
Summarize the advantages and disadvantages of using an Internet site as means of collecting data for psychological research (Comp 2.1) 25.0\% Summarization of the advantages and disadvantages of using an Internet site as means of collecting data for psych
Identify the type of research used in a chosen study
Compose a 1
Optics
effect relationship becomes more difficult—as the researcher cannot enact total control of another person even in an experimental environment. Social workers serve clients in highly complex real-world environments. Clients often implement recommended inte
I think knowing more about you will allow you to be able to choose the right resources
Be 4 pages in length
soft MB-920 dumps review and documentation and high-quality listing pdf MB-920 braindumps also recommended and approved by Microsoft experts. The practical test
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One thing you will need to do in college is learn how to find and use references. References support your ideas. College-level work must be supported by research. You are expected to do that for this paper. You will research
Elaborate on any potential confounds or ethical concerns while participating in the psychological study 20.0\% Elaboration on any potential confounds or ethical concerns while participating in the psychological study is missing. Elaboration on any potenti
3 The first thing I would do in the family’s first session is develop a genogram of the family to get an idea of all the individuals who play a major role in Linda’s life. After establishing where each member is in relation to the family
A Health in All Policies approach
Note: The requirements outlined below correspond to the grading criteria in the scoring guide. At a minimum
Chen
Read Connecting Communities and Complexity: A Case Study in Creating the Conditions for Transformational Change
Read Reflections on Cultural Humility
Read A Basic Guide to ABCD Community Organizing
Use the bolded black section and sub-section titles below to organize your paper. For each section
Losinski forwarded the article on a priority basis to Mary Scott
Losinksi wanted details on use of the ED at CGH. He asked the administrative resident