Assignment 6 - Business & Finance
Please check the attachment below Instruction: 1. According to these documents named “Assignment 6 data”, “Chapter 6” and “Chapter 7” 2. Complete the multiple questions in the “Assignment 6 questions” documents. 3. Please calculate the problem and write out the full steps and explanations. Due on Tuesday, October 26th , Before 10 PM, US central time. (Chicago) Assignment 6 1. Do Chapter 10 Problem 6 in BKM [Assume aA = 0 and aB = 0] 2. Do Chapter 10 Problem 7 in BKM 3. A mean-variance investor has relative risk aversion of 5. The investor chooses between a US stock market index and Treasury bills. Assume that the risk premium for the stock market is 6\% and the standard deviation for the stock market is 20\%. a) What fraction of financial wealth should be allocated to the US stock market for a person at retirement with no human capital? b) If the individual is an employee of the government (ph s = 0 and rrh = 0 05) and the present value of all future wages is 80\% of the persons total wealth portfolio at their current age. What fraction of financial wealth should be allocated to the US stock market currently? c) If the individual is an investment banker (ph s = 0 6 and rrh = 0 15) and the present value of all future wages is 80\% of the persons total wealth portfolio at their current age. What fraction of financial wealth should be allocated to the US stock market currently? d) Assume that there is no human capital remaining upon retirement. Should the fraction of financial wealth allocated to the stock market rise or fall as a government employee approaches retirement? Does this answer to this question change if the person is an investment banker instead? Briefly explain your answers. 4. Compare 10 test portfolios using the CAPM model and 3-factor model. Please do not include the raw data in your solutions. a) Download assignment6data.xls from the compass2g website. b) Create a variable for the excess return of each portfolio as the difference between the return on the portfolio and the risk free rate (labeled rf). c) Regress the portfolio excess return on the excess return of the market (labeled mkt_rf). There should be regression results for ten separate regressions. d) What is the interpretation of the estimated constant (intercept) in the ten regressions? e) For which portfolios (portid) is the constant statistically different from zero at a 5\% level of significance and positive? For which of portfolios is the constant statistically different zero at a 5\% level of significance and negative? ( 1 ) f) According to the constants from the regressions of the excess return of the portfolio on the excess return of the market, does it appear that the constants are increasing or decreasing with the portfolio identifier (portid)? What trading strategy, if any, would you adopt to exploit this pattern? g) Given your answer to part f), would you conclude that the market is efficient with regard to the information used to create these portfolios? h) Regress the portfolio excess return on the excess return of the market, the SMB fac- tor, and the HML factor. Again, there should be regression results for another ten separate regressions. i) For which portfolios (portid) is the constant statistically different from zero at a 5\% level of significance and positive? For which of these portfolios (portid) is the constant statistically different from zero at a 5\% level of significance and negative? What trading strategy, if any, would you adopt to exploit this pattern? j) Assume that SMB and HML represent for systematic risk factors. Given your answer to part i) would you conclude that the market is efficient with regard to the information used to create these portfolios? k) According to the other coefficients from the regressions of the excess return of the portfolio on the excess return of the market, SMB, and HML, which portfolios (portid) have a statistically significant loading (different from zero) on the value factor? ret10 portid portid portid portid portid portid portid portid portid portid 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 rf mkt_rf smb hml 3.363749907 1.8373846339 2.4238167044 2.7717240712 4.4352622425 1.6371196715 2.1505142123 2.1967469137 2.6080115079 2.5342801257 0.3 2.28 -0.17 1.54 2.0758052629 1.2308992591 1.6981292047 0.2822848284 1.3624425159 2.3612695121 2.9527271646 4.365338316 4.9362599875 4.4953748297 0.26 1.46 0.08 2.84 1.1990847488 1.2340837871 1.5438168097 0.2256250126 3.2333360395 3.9939669953 5.188726817 4.0423422292 2.9938557741 3.2814619342 0.31 1.45 0.95 3.43 -2.610619048 2.2382514367 1.6519498895 1.6678177586 0.401413309 -0.2321228375 3.5179636814 0.3711317384 1.5880308795 0.1208978867 0.29 0.17 -1.37 -0.52 2.2956055922 2.7743039733 0.5810235998 0.0758713787 1.3826156983 0.965150015 2.3090682892 3.235157098 2.1399884312 3.3317420318 0.26 1.48 -0.89 1.91 0.158714865 1.8207980874 1.7262901293 3.7218746833 1.0195323934 0.9949191131 0.3764660192 0.9332000585 1.7551874712 4.1887772152 0.3 1.21 -0.3 0.75 0.7079028279 4.3912850391 1.0937957095 2.3670776447 1.8695772225 4.7455235658 1.0763464088 2.2292410688 1.5218268597 1.1383728943 0.3 1.71 0.23 0.69 -2.0727978668 -0.2554871669 -1.3951845037 -1.1516654216 0.4931486505 -0.7584641956 -1.318638448 0.0280594066 -0.1600288143 -2.0972417078 0.28 -1.41 0.09 0.12 3.2301227615 3.7347851162 0.7570008154 3.9651365025 3.4409623444 4.4826588028 3.9794999624 4.3166763238 6.3883782689 6.3087899202 0.28 2.77 -0.51 1.65 -0.8266447475 0.6117391775 1.4949963465 2.4994120461 0.2585157805 0.8243141406 1.5595514143 1.3601261391 2.3742339674 2.291238744 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6.138343502 5.3311840043 0.53 2.87 3.42 1.28 11.8825929096 10.392470123 8.3333276238 7.3657163329 4.8245641584 4.8046745722 5.7164954934 6.6504253999 6.4269259159 6.4599314712 0.54 7.74 0.4 -3.46 2.6032794779 2.0178833014 2.9288773706 2.3986678642 0.8011043327 2.303796156 1.5275946721 3.9646582345 4.3357392993 5.1817216155 0.51 1.81 4.6 -0.61 -0.2358391079 -2.0844445585 -2.1404647711 -2.2756605455 -1.1313886753 0.0536022334 -0.8508210901 0.1152085481 -0.3651680395 -0.6530059314 0.54 -1.62 1.73 0.59 7.4834201262 7.5014211397 6.2383944758 4.4978701263 5.2418305878 3.2508441303 4.7258907677 6.1704488252 4.3676905142 8.2833501969 0.56 5.11 0.28 -1.08 3.9474724476 3.4848316116 4.0088985901 4.8693400713 5.1417056475 4.7084116043 3.2037297207 3.2194081099 4.8884711392 5.8901813611 0.55 3.69 5.08 -0.5 -3.6857139914 -2.1334435809 -0.7773797087 -0.7250108137 1.1407831695 1.3708803138 0.676839415 -0.1304319949 -0.3186699654 0.2183468682 0.62 -1.31 -0.4 1.9 -9.408519304 -12.336053068 -12.0902647337 -11.9209185171 -10.5974754722 -8.5588614743 -10.3711913242 -12.4452872729 -15.1732366951 -19.1779879843 0.68 -11.78 -9.91 1.41 3.9674988927 2.4503974584 3.412661812 3.3101674645 4.2364881082 3.398069055 3.4798753182 2.4894598759 3.2260237776 4.0742190903 0.7 2.68 3.05 -2.25 5.8218546183 1.4803236405 0.9403154985 1.1136370385 1.4318324453 0.3479515917 0.4072150718 0.7636180871 1.7858414293 -0.0395246672 0.78 0.99 1.27 -2.24 2.1356164122 4.2691419146 5.3004523509 6.003483562 5.0798438454 4.682526504 6.2932431498 7.9312669933 6.7292003934 9.642373411 0.77 4.18 3.69 2.28 -3.7548431507 -3.3219027728 -2.8738449029 -2.9596733089 -2.7391559239 -1.5217913815 -2.0797076611 -2.4072740321 -2.0082494162 -2.3119467025 0.73 -3.41 0.47 1.17 5.4023240594 7.3780731966 6.948686851 6.7907334483 7.4355056376 4.421220464 6.3566961452 7.5443537811 9.4251773247 10.5235076288 0.81 5.75 3.19 -0.67 0.8767151192 0.2090296593 0.3137687728 1.5396188671 1.0115350492 -0.3684053591 1.9603240125 1.5057935495 2.4299645034 0.4182201834 0.8 0.05 2.18 1.06 -2.5373478302 -1.4384437708 -1.2994329037 -0.9833610814 -1.0322712698 -0.9833850682 -1.3209937319 -1.3575297812 -1.5215969233 -0.2715216871 0.82 -2.18 0.34 1.62 1.7414106926 4.9549976736 4.2660633626 5.7719323669 6.5851735737 4.4878687845 6.0302518614 4.6948154042 6.3766995742 5.2899835248 0.81 3.88 1.17 1.42 -1.3310024176 1.0744725268 2.0450242192 2.245247066 1.750170315 1.8993634384 1.4508400986 1.8424695985 3.6896780496 3.4311577672 0.77 0.73 1.31 1.75 6.3400271059 7.9845003609 7.6563662051 6.9953438529 7.1482853476 4.1114216397 6.3757730402 5.6423505635 7.5965916564 6.6419896948 0.77 5.7 2.07 -1.53 -1.7153569087 -0.4349291563 -0.0691347189 1.1485992479 1.6205537878 0.6108302162 0.6423706985 -1.1179504914 0.0732663458 -0.5497522873 0.83 -0.69 -0.29 -0.91 -6.5217401516 -6.9607475617 -7.0403674082 -5.8930836486 -7.0783569538 -6.8242214487 -8.2463886637 -8.8603558937 -8.2859625821 … !# P A R T I I I Equilibrium in Capital Markets bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 318 03/27/17 03:29 PM that the SML of the CAPM must also apply to well-diversified portfolios simply by virtue of the “no-arbitrage” requirement of the APT. Individual Assets and the APT We have demonstrated that if arbitrage opportuni- ties are to be ruled out, each well-diversified portfolio’s expected excess return must be proportional to its beta. The question is whether this relationship tells us anything about the expected returns on the component stocks. The answer is that if this relationship is to be satisfied by all well-diversified portfolios, it must be satisfied by almost all individual securities, although a full proof of this proposition is somewhat difficult. We can illustrate the argument less formally. Suppose that the expected return–beta relationship is violated for all single assets. Now create a pair of well-diversified portfolios from these assets. What are the chances that in spite of the fact that for any pair of assets the relationship does not hold, the relationship will hold for both well-diversified portfolios? The chances are small, but it is perhaps possible that the relationships among the single securities are violated in offsetting ways so that somehow it holds for the pair of well-diversified portfolios. Now construct yet a third well-diversified portfolio. What are the chances that the violations of the relationships for single securities are such that the third portfolio also will fulfill the no-arbitrage expected return–beta relationship? Obviously, the chances are smaller still, but the relationship is possible. Continue with a fourth well-diversified portfolio, and so on. If the no-arbitrage expected return–beta relationship has to hold for each of these different, well-diversified portfolios, it must be virtually certain that the relationship holds for all but a small number of individual securities. We use the term virtually certain advisedly because we must distinguish this conclusion from the statement that all securities surely fulfill this relationship. The reason we cannot make the latter statement has to do with a property of well-diversified portfolios. Recall that to qualify as well diversified, a portfolio must have very small positions in all securities. If, for example, only one security violates the expected return–beta rela- tionship, then the effect of this violation on a well-diversified portfolio will be too small to be of importance for any practical purpose, and meaningful arbitrage opportunities will not arise. But if many securities violate the expected return–beta relationship, the relationship will no longer hold for well-diversified portfolios, and arbitrage opportuni- ties will be available. Consequently, we conclude that imposing the no-arbitrage condi- tion on a single-factor security market implies maintenance of the expected return–beta relationship for all well-diversified portfolios and for all but possibly a small number of individual securities. Well-Diversified Portfolios in Practice What is the effect of diversification on portfolio standard deviation in practice, where portfolio size is not unlimited? To illustrate, we work out the residual standard deviation (SD) of portfolios of different size under ideal conditions, with equal weights on each com- ponent stock. These calculations appear in Table 10.1. The table shows portfolio residual SD as a function of the number of stocks. Equally weighted, 1,000-stock portfolios achieve small but not negligible standard deviations of 1.58\% when residual risk is 50\% and 3.16\% when residual risk is 100\%.!For 10,000-stock portfolios, the SDs are close to negligible, verifying that diversification can eliminate residual risk, at least in principle, if the invest- ment universe is large enough. What is a “large” portfolio? Many widely held ETFs or mutual funds hold hundreds of shares, and some funds and indexes such as the Wilshire 5000 contain thousands. Thus, a portfolio of 1,000 stocks is not unheard of, but a portfolio of 10,000 shares is. Therefore, for plausible portfolios, the standard deviations in Table 10.1 make it clear that even broad Final PDF to printer !# P A R T I I I Equilibrium in Capital Markets bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 320 03/27/17 03:29 PM a small number of securities. Because it focuses on the no-arbitrage condition, without the further assumptions of the market or index model, the APT cannot rule out a violation of the expected return–beta relationship for any particular asset. For this, we need the CAPM assumptions and its mean-variance dominance arguments. Moreover, while the APT is built on the foundation of well-diversified portfolios, we’ve seen, for example in Table 10.1, that even large portfolios may have non-negligible residual risk. Some indexed portfolios may have hundreds or thousands of stocks, but active portfolios generally cannot, as there is a limit to how many stocks can be actively analyzed in search of alpha.! Despite these shortcomings, the APT is valuable. First, recall that the CAPM requires that almost all investors be mean-variance optimizers. The APT frees us of this assump- tion. It is sufficient that a small number of sophisticated arbitrageurs scour the market for arbitrage opportunities.! Moreover, when we replace the unobserved market portfolio of the CAPM with an observed, broad index portfolio that may not be efficient, we no longer can be sure that the CAPM predicts risk premiums of all assets with no bias. Therefore, neither model is free of limitations.! In the end, however, it is noteworthy and comforting that despite the very different paths they take to get there, both models arrive at the same security market line. Most important, they both highlight the distinction between firm-specific and systematic risk, which is at the heart of all modern models of risk and return. The APT and Portfolio Optimization in a Single-Index Market The APT is couched in a single-factor market3 and applies with perfect accuracy to well-diversified portfolios. It shows arbitrageurs how to generate infinite profits if the risk premium of a well-diversified portfolio deviates from Equation 10.6. The trades executed by these arbitrageurs are the enforcers of the accuracy of this equation. In effect, the APT shows how to take advantage of security mispricing when diversi- fication opportunities are abundant. When you lock in and scale up an arbitrage oppor- tunity you’re sure to be rich as Croesus regardless of the composition of the rest of your portfolio—but only if the arbitrage portfolio is truly risk-free! However, if the arbitrage position is not perfectly well diversified, an increase in its scale (borrowing cash, or borrowing shares to go short) will increase the risk of the arbitrage position, potentially without bound. The APT ignores this complication. Now consider an investor who confronts this single-factor market, and whose security analysis reveals an underpriced asset (or portfolio), that is, one whose risk premium implies a positive alpha. This investor can follow the advice woven throughout Chapters 6, 7, and 8 to construct an optimal risky portfolio. The optimization process will consider both the potential profit from a position in the mispriced asset, as well as the risk of the overall portfolio and efficient diversification. As we saw in Chapter 8, the Treynor- Black (T-B) procedure can be summarized as follows.4 1. Estimate the risk premium and standard deviation of the benchmark (index) portfolio, RPM and M. 3The APT is easily extended to a multifactor market, as we show later. 4The tediousness of some of the expressions involved in the T-B method should not deter anyone. The calcula- tions are straightforward using a spreadsheet. The estimation of the risk parameters also is a relatively straight- forward statistical task. The real difficulty is to uncover security alphas and the macro-factor risk premium, RPM. Final PDF to printer C H A P T E R ! Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Multifactor Models of Risk and Return #$! bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 321 03/27/17 03:29 PM 2. Place all the assets that are mispriced into an active portfolio. Call the alpha of the active portfolio !A, its systematic-risk coefficient A, and its residual risk #(eA). Your optimal risky portfolio will allocate to the active portfolio a weight, w A *: w A 0 = ! A $ # 2 ( e A ) __________ E( R M )$ # M 2 ; w A * \%=\% w A 0 _____________ 1\%+\% w A 0 (1\%&\%A) The allocation to the passive portfolio is then\% w A * \%=\%1\%&\% w A * . With this allocation, the increase in the Sharpe ratio of the optimal portfolio, SP, over that of the passive portfolio, SM, depends on the information ratio of the active portfolio, IRA = !A/#(eA). 3. To maximize the Sharpe ratio of the risky portfolio, you maximize the information ratio of the active portfolio. This is achieved by allocating to each asset in the active portfolio a portfolio weight proportional to: wAi = !i /#2(ei ). Now see what happens in the T-B model when the residual risk of the active portfolio is zero. This is essentially the assumption of the APT, that a well-diversified portfolio (with zero residual risk) can be formed. When the residual risk of the active portfolio goes to zero, the position in it goes to infinity. This is precisely the same implication as the APT: When portfolios are well-diversified, you will scale up an arbitrage position without bound. Similarly, when the residual risk of an asset in the active T-B portfolio is zero, it will displace all other assets from that portfolio, and thus the residual risk of the active portfolio will be zero and will elicit the same extreme portfolio response. However, we have seen that, in practice, it is unlikely that residual risk can be driven all the way to zero. When residual risk is not zero, the T-B procedure produces the optimal risky portfolio, which is a compromise between seeking alpha and shunning potentially diversifiable risk. In contrast, by assuming residual risk can be diversified away, the APT ignores it altogether. When residual risk can be made small through diversification, the T-B model prescribes very aggressive (large) positions in mispriced securities that exert great pressure on equilibrium risk premiums to eliminate nonzero alpha values. The T-B model does what the APT is meant to do, but with more flexibility in terms of accommo- dating the practical limits to diversification. In this sense, Treynor and Black anticipated the development of the APT. We have assumed so far that only one systematic factor affects stock returns. This simpli- fying assumption is in fact too simplistic. We’ve noted that it is easy to think of several factors driven by the business cycle that might affect stock returns: interest rate fluctua- tions, inflation rates, and so on. Presumably, exposure to any of these factors will affect a stock’s risk and hence its expected return. We can derive a multifactor version of the APT to accommodate these multiple sources of risk. Suppose that we generalize the single-factor model expressed in Equation 10.1 to a two- factor model: Ri\%=\%E(Ri )\%+\%i1 F1\%+\%i 2 F2\%+\%ei (10.7) In Example 10.2, factor 1 was the departure of GDP growth from expectations, and factor 2 was the unanticipated change in interest rates. Each factor has zero expected value because each measures the surprise in the systematic variable rather than the level of the variable. 10.4 A Multifactor APT Final PDF to printer ! P A R T I I I Equilibrium in Capital Markets bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 322 03/27/17 03:29 PM Similarly, the firm-specific component of unexpected return, ei, also has zero expected value. Extending such a two-factor model to any number of factors is straightforward. The benchmark portfolios in the APT are!factor portfolios, which are well-diversified portfolios constructed to have a beta of 1 on one of the factors and a beta of zero on any other factor. We can think of each factor portfolio as a tracking portfolio. That is, the returns on such a portfolio track the evolution of one particular source of macroeco- nomic risk but are uncorrelated with other sources of risk. It is possible to form such factor portfolios because we have a large number of securities to choose from, and a relatively small number of factors. The multidimensional SML predicts that the contribution of each source of risk to the security’s total risk premium equals the factor beta times the risk premium of the factor portfolio tracking that source of risk. We illustrate with an example. Suppose that the two factor portfolios, portfolios ! and , have expected returns E(r!) = !#\% and E(r) = !\% and that the risk-free rate is $\%. The risk premium on the first factor portfolio is !#\% $\% = \%\%, and that on the second factor portfolio is !\% $\% = &\%. Now consider a well-diversified portfolio, portfolio A, with beta on the first factor portfolio, #A! = ., and beta on the second factor portfolio, #A = .(. The multifactor APT states that the overall risk premium on this portfolio must equal the sum of the risk premiums required as compensation for each source of systematic risk. The risk premium attributable to risk factor ! is the portfolio’s exposure to factor !, #A!, multiplied by the risk premium earned on the first factor portfolio, E(r!) rf. Therefore, the portion of portfolio A’s risk premium that is com- pensation for its exposure to the first factor is #A!)[E(r!) rf!!] = .(!#\% $\%) = *\%. Similarly, the risk premium attributable to risk factor is #A)[E(r) rf!!] = .((!\% $\%) = \%\%. The total risk premium on the portfolio is *\% + \%\% = +\% and the total expected return on the portfolio should be $\% + +\% = !*\%. Example 10.3 Multifactor SML Using the numbers in Example !#.*: E(rQ))!=!$,+,.!$!(!#!!$),+,.(!$!(!!!$)!=!!*\% Suppose the expected return on portfolio A from Example !#.* were !\% rather than !*\%. This return would give rise to an arbitrage opportunity. Form a portfolio from the factor Example 10.4 Mispricing and Arbitrage To generalize Example 10.3, note that the factor exposures of any portfolio, P, are given by its betas, #P1 and #P2. A competing portfolio, Q, can be formed by investing in factor portfolios with the following weights: #P1 in the first factor portfolio, #P2 in the second factor portfolio, and 1 #P1 #P2 in T-bills. By construction, portfolio Q will have betas equal to those of portfolio P and expected return of E(rQ )!=!#P1 E(r1)!+!#P2 E(r2)!+!(1!!#P1!!#P2)rf =!rf! +!#P1 [ E(r1)!!rf ] +!#P2 [ E(r2)!!rf ] (10.8) This is a two-factor SML, and, as Example 10.4 shows, any well-diversified portfolio with the same betas must have the same expected return as long as capital markets do not allow for easy arbitrage opportunities. Final PDF to printer !# bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 324 03/27/17 03:29 PM Using the APT to Find Cost of Capital W O R D S F R O M T H E S T R E E T Elton, Gruber, and Mei* use the APT to derive the cost of capital for electric utilities. They consider five potential systematic risk factors: unanticipated developments in the term structure of interest rates, the level of interest rates, inflation rates, the business cycle (measured by GDP), foreign exchange rates, and a summary measure they devise to measure other macro factors. Their first step is to estimate the risk premium associated with exposure to each risk source. They accomplish this in a two-step strategy (which we will describe in considerable detail in Chapter $!): $. Estimate “factor loadings” (i.e., betas) of a large sample of firms. Regress returns of $\%\% randomly selected stocks against the five systematic factors. They use a time-series regression for each stock (e.g., &\% months of data), there- fore estimating $\%\% regressions, one for each stock. . Estimate the reward earned per unit of exposure to each risk factor. For each month, regress the return of each stock against the five betas estimated. The coefficient on each beta is the extra average return earned as beta increases (i.e., it is an estimate of the risk premium for that risk factor from that month’s data). These estimates are of course sub- ject to sampling error. Therefore, average the risk premium estimates across the $ months in each year. The average response of return to risk is less subject to sampling error. The risk premiums are in the middle column of the table in the next column. Notice that some risk premiums are negative. The interpre- tation of this result is that risk premium should be positive for risk factors you don’t want exposure to, but negative for factors you do want exposure to. For example, you should desire secu- rities that have higher returns when inflation increases and be willing to accept lower expected returns on such securities; this shows up as a negative risk premium. The study finds that average returns are related to factor betas as follows: rf+.#( !term struc#.\%($ !int rate # .\%#) !ex rate+.\%#$ !bus cycle#.\%&) !inflation+.(!\% !other Finally, to obtain the cost of capital for a particular firm, the authors estimate the firm’s betas against each source of risk, multiply each factor beta by the “cost of factor risk” from the table above, sum over all risk sources to obtain the total risk premium, and add the risk-free rate. For example, the beta estimates for Niagara Mohawk appear in the last column of the table above. Therefore, its cost of capital is Costofcapital=rf+.#($$.\%&$(#\%.($(# .#$&*) # .\%#)($.!!()+.\%#$(.$)) # .\%&)(# .(\%)+.(!\%(.!\%#&) =rf+.* In other words, the monthly cost of capital for Niagara Mohawk is .*\% above the monthly risk-free rate. Its annualized risk premium is therefore .*\% $ $ = +.&#\%. *Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber, and Jianping Mei, “Cost of Capital Using Arbitrage Pricing Theory: A Case Study of Nine New York Utilities,” Finan- cial Markets, Institutions, and Instruments ! (August $))#), pp. #&–&+. Factor Factor Risk Premium Factor Betas for Niagara Mohawk Term structure !.#$ \%.!&\%$ Interest rates #!.!$\% ##.\%& Exchange rates #!.!( \%.)#)$ Business cycle !.!\% !.\%#(# Inflation #!.!&( #!.$##! Other macro factors !.$)!* !.)!& The APT shows us how multiple risk factors can result in a multifactor SML. But how can we identify the most likely sources of systematic risk? One approach comes from Merton’s multifactor CAPM, discussed in Chapter 9, in which the extra-market risk factors are due to hedging demands against a range of risks associated with either consumption or investment opportunities. Another approach, which is more pervasive today, uses firm characteristics that seem on empirical grounds to proxy for exposure to systematic risk. The factors chosen are variables that on past evidence have predicted average returns well and therefore may be capturing risk premiums. One example of this approach is the Fama 10.5 The Fama-French (FF) Three-Factor Model Final PDF to printer C H A P T E R ! Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Multifactor Models of Risk and Return #$\% bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 325 03/27/17 03:29 PM and French three-factor model and its variants, which have come to dominate empirical research in security returns:6 Rit!=!i!+!#iM RMt!+!#iSMB SMBt!+!#iHML HMLt!+!eit (10.9) where SMB = Small Minus Big (i.e., the return of a portfolio of small stocks in excess of the return on a portfolio of large stocks). HML = High Minus Low (i.e., the return of a portfolio of stocks with a high book-to-market ratio in excess of the return on a portfolio of stocks with a low book-to-market ratio). Note that in this model the market index does play a role and is expected to capture systematic risk originating from macroeconomic factors. These two extra-market factors are chosen because of long-standing observations that firm size, measured by market capitalization (the market value of outstanding equity), and the book-to-market ratio (book value per share divided by stock price) predict devia- tions of average stock returns from levels consistent with the CAPM. Fama and French justify this model on empirical grounds: While SMB and HML are not themselves obvious candidates for relevant risk factors, the argument is that these variables may proxy for hard-to-measure more-fundamental variables. For example, Fama and French point out that firms with high book-to-market ratios are more likely to be in financial distress and that small stocks may be more sensitive to changes in business conditions. Thus, these variables may capture sensitivity to risk factors in the macroeconomy. More evidence on the Fama-French model appears in Chapter 13. The problem with empirical approaches such as the Fama-French model is that the extra-market factors in these models cannot be clearly identified with a source of risk that is of obvious concern to a significant group of investors. Black7 points out that when researchers scan and rescan the database of security returns in search of explanatory fac- tors (an activity often called data-snooping), they may eventually uncover past “patterns” that are due purely to chance. However, Fama and French have shown that size and book- to-market ratios have predicted average returns in different time periods and in markets all over the world, thus mitigating potential effects of data-snooping. The risk premiums associated with Fama-French factors raise the question of whether they reflect a multi-index ICAPM based on extra-market hedging demands or just represent yet-unexplained anomalies, where firm characteristics are correlated with alpha values. This is an important distinction for the debate over the proper interpreta- tion of the model, because the validity of FF-style models may signify either a devia- tion from rational equilibrium (as there is no rational reason to prefer one or another of these firm characteristics per se) or indicate that firm characteristics identified as empirically associated with average returns are correlated with other (harder to specify) risk factors. The issue is still unresolved and is revisited in Chapter 13. 6Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, “Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies,” Journal of Finance 51 (1996), pp. 55–84. 7Fischer Black, “Beta and Return,” Journal of Portfolio Management 20 (1993), pp. 8–18. Final PDF to printer bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 326 03/27/17 03:29 PM !# P A R T I I I Equilibrium in Capital Markets single-factor model multifactor model factor loading factor beta KEY TERMS arbitrage pricing theory (APT) arbitrage Law of One Price risk arbitrage well-diversified portfolio factor portfolio Single-factor model: Ri = E(Ri ) + !i F + ei Multifactor model (here, 2 factors, F1 and F2): Ri = E(Ri ) + !i1F1 + !i2 F2 + ei Single-index model: Ri = i + !i RM + ei KEY EQUATIONS 1. Multifactor models seek to improve the explanatory power of single-factor models by explicitly accounting for the various components of systematic risk. These models use indicators intended to capture a wide range of macroeconomic risk factors. 2. Once we allow for multiple risk factors, we conclude that the security market line also ought to be multidimensional, with exposure to each risk factor contributing to the total risk premium of the security. 3. A (risk-free) arbitrage opportunity arises when two or more security prices enable investors to construct a zero-net-investment portfolio that will yield a sure profit. The presence of arbi- trage opportunities will generate a large volume of trades that puts pressure on security prices. This pressure will continue until prices reach levels that preclude such arbitrage. 4. When securities are priced so that there are no risk-free arbitrage opportunities, we say that they satisfy the no-arbitrage condition. Price relationships that satisfy the no-arbitrage condition are important because we expect them to hold in real-world markets. 5. Portfolios are called “well diversified” if they include a large number of securities and the invest- ment proportion in each is sufficiently small. The proportion of a security in a well-diversified portfolio is small enough so that for all practical purposes a reasonable change in that security’s rate of return will have a negligible effect on the portfolio’s rate of return. 6. In a single-factor security market, all well-diversified portfolios have to satisfy the expected return–beta relationship of the CAPM to satisfy the no-arbitrage condition. If all well-diversified portfolios satisfy the expected return–beta relationship, then individual securities also must satisfy this relationship, at least approximately. 7. The APT does not require the restrictive assumptions of the CAPM and its (unobservable) market portfolio. The price of this generality is that the APT does not guarantee this relationship for all securities at all times. 8. A multifactor APT generalizes the single-factor model to accommodate several sources of systematic risk. The multidimensional security market line predicts that exposure to each risk factor contributes to the security’s total risk premium by an amount equal to the factor beta times the risk premium of the factor portfolio that tracks that source of risk. 9. The multifactor extension of the single-factor CAPM, the ICAPM, predicts the same multidimen- sional security market line as the APT. The ICAPM suggests that priced extra-market risk factors will be the ones that lead to significant hedging demand by a substantial fraction of investors. Other approaches to the multifactor APT are more empirically based, where the extra-market factors are selected based on past ability to predict risk premiums. SUMMARY Final PDF to printer C H A P T E R ! Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Multifactor Models of Risk and Return #$\% bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 327 03/27/17 03:29 PM 1. Suppose that two factors have been identified for the U.S. economy: the growth rate of industrial production, IP, and the inflation rate, IR. IP is expected to be 3\%, and IR 5\%. A stock with a beta of 1 on IP and .5 on IR currently is expected to provide a rate of return of 12\%. If industrial production actually grows by 5\%, while the inflation rate turns out to be 8\%, what is your revised estimate of the expected rate of return on the stock? 2. The APT itself does not provide guidance concerning the factors that one might expect to determine risk premiums. How should researchers decide which factors to investigate? Why, for example, is industrial production a reasonable factor to test for a risk premium? 3. If the APT is to be a useful theory, the number of systematic factors in the economy must be small. Why? 4. Suppose that there are two independent economic factors, F1 and F2. The risk-free rate is 6\%, and all stocks have independent firm-specific components with a standard deviation of 45\%. Portfolios A and B are both well-diversified with the following properties: Portfolio Beta on F! Beta on F$ Expected Return A !. #.$ \%!\% B #.# !$.# #&\% What is the expected return–beta relationship in this economy? 5. Consider the following data for a one-factor economy. Both portfolios are well diversified. Portfolio E(r!) Beta A !#\% !.# F \% $.$ Suppose that another portfolio, portfolio E, is well diversified with a beta of .6 and expected return of 8\%. Would an arbitrage opportunity exist? If so, what would be the arbitrage strategy? 6. Assume that both portfolios A and B are well diversified, that E(rA) = 12\%, and E(rB) = 9\%. If the economy has only one factor, and A = 1.2, whereas B = .8, what must be the risk-free rate? 7. Assume that stock market returns have the market index as a common factor, and that all stocks in the economy have a beta of 1 on the market index. Firm-specific returns all have a standard deviation of 30\%. Suppose that an analyst studies 20 stocks and finds that one-half of them have an alpha of +2\%, and the other half have an alpha of !2\%. Suppose the analyst invests $1 million in an equally weighted portfolio of the positive alpha stocks, and shorts $1 million of an equally weighted portfolio of the negative alpha stocks. a. What is the expected profit (in dollars) and standard deviation of the analyst’s profit? b. How does your answer change if the analyst examines 50 stocks instead of 20 stocks? 100 stocks? PROBLEM SETS Multifactor SML (here, 2 factors, labeled 1 and 2): E(ri )#=#rf#+#i1 [ E(r1)#!#rf ] +#i2 [ E(r2)#!#rf ] =#rf#+#i1 E(R1)#+#i2 E(R2) where i1 and i2#measure the stock’s typical response to returns on each factor portfolio and the risk premiums on the two factor portfolios are E(R1) and E(R2). Final PDF to printer C H A P T E R ! Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Multifactor Models of Risk and Return #$\% bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 329 03/27/17 03:29 PM b. Suppose that the market expects the values for the three macro factors given in column 1 below, but that the actual values turn out as given in column 2. Calculate the revised expec- tations for the rate of return on the stock once the “surprises” become known. Factor Expected Value Actual Value Inflation !\% \% Industrial production # $ Oil prices \% & 11. Suppose that the market can be described by the following three sources of systematic risk with associated risk premiums. Factor Risk Premium Industrial production (I!) $\% Interest rates (R) \% Consumer confidence (C!) The return on a particular stock is generated according to the following equation: r!=!15\%!+!1.0I!+!.5R!+!.75C!+!e Find the equilibrium rate of return on this stock using the APT. The T-bill rate is 6\%. Is the stock over- or underpriced? Explain. 12. As a finance intern at Pork Products, Jennifer Wainwright’s assignment is to come up with fresh insights concerning the firm’s cost of capital. She decides that this would be a good opportunity to try out the new material on the APT that she learned last semester. She decides that three promising factors would be (a) the return on a broad-based index such as the S&P 500; (b) the level of interest rates, as represented by the yield to maturity on 10-year Treasury bonds; and (c) the price of hogs, which is particularly important to her firm. Her plan is to find the beta of Pork Products against each of these factors by using a multiple regression and to estimate the risk premium associated with each exposure factor. Comment on Jennifer’s choice of factors. Which are most promising with respect to the likely impact on her firm’s cost of capital? Can you suggest improvements to her specification? Use the following information to answer Problems 13 through 16: Orb Trust (Orb) has historically leaned toward a passive management style of its portfolios. The only model that Orb’s senior management has promoted in the past is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Now Orb’s management has asked one of its analysts, Kevin McCracken, CFA, to investigate the use of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) model. McCracken believes that a two-factor APT model is adequate, where the factors are the sensitivity to changes in real GDP and changes in inflation. McCracken has concluded that the factor risk premium for real GDP is 8\% while the factor risk premium for inflation is 2\%. He estimates for Orb’s High Growth Fund that the sensitivities to these two factors are 1.25 and 1.5, respectively. Using his APT results, he computes the equilibrium expected return of the fund. For comparison purposes, he then uses fundamental analysis to compute the actually expected return of Orb’s High Growth Fund. McCracken finds that the two estimates of the Orb High Growth Fund’s expected return are equal. McCracken asks a fellow analyst, Sue Kwon, to provide an estimate of the expected return of Orb’s Large Cap Fund based on fundamental analysis. Kwon, who manages the fund, says that the expected return is 8.5\% above the risk-free rate. McCracken then applies the APT model to the Large Cap Fund. He finds that the sensitivities to real GDP and inflation are .75 and 1.25, respectively. McCracken’s manager at Orb, Jay Stiles, asks McCracken to construct a portfolio that has a unit sensitivity to real GDP growth but is not affected by inflation. McCracken is confident in his APT estimates for the High Growth Fund and the Large Cap Fund. He then computes the Final PDF to printer bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 330 03/27/17 03:29 PM !! P A R T I I I Equilibrium in Capital Markets sensitivities for a third fund, Orb’s Utility Fund, which has sensitivities equal to 1.0 and 2.0, respectively. McCracken will use his APT results for these three funds to accomplish the task of creating a portfolio with a unit exposure to real GDP and no exposure to inflation. He calls the fund the “GDP Fund.” Stiles says such a GDP Fund would be good for clients who are retirees who live off the steady income of their investments. McCracken does not agree with Stiles, but says that the fund would be a good choice if upcoming supply side macroeconomic policies of the government are successful. 13. According to the APT, if the risk-free rate is 4\%, what should be McCracken’s estimate of the expected return of Orb’s High Growth Fund? 14. With respect to McCracken’s APT model estimate of Orb’s Large Cap Fund and the information Kwon provides, is an arbitrage opportunity available? 15. If the GDP Fund is constructed from the other three funds, which of the following would be its weight in the Utility Fund? (a) !2.2; (b) !3.2; or (c) .3. 16. With respect to the comments of Stiles and McCracken concerning for whom the GDP Fund would be appropriate: a. McCracken is correct and Stiles is wrong. b. Both are correct. c. Stiles is correct and McCracken is wrong. 17. Assume a universe of n (large) securities for which the largest residual variance is not larger than n M 2 . Construct as many different weighting schemes as you can that generate well- diversified portfolios. 18. Derive a more general (than the numerical example in the chapter) demonstration of the APT security market line: a. For a single-factor market. b. For a multifactor market. 19. Small firms generally have relatively high loadings (high betas) on the SMB (small minus big) factor. a. Explain why this is not surprising. b. Now suppose two unrelated small firms merge. Each will be operated as an independent unit of the merged company. Would you expect the stock market behavior of the merged firm to differ from that of a portfolio of the two previously independent firms? c. How does the merger affect market capitalization? d. What is the prediction of the Fama-French model for the risk premium on the merged firm compared to the weighted average of the two component companies?# e. Do we see here a problem in applying the FF model? 1. Jeffrey Bruner, CFA, uses the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to help identify mispriced securities. A consultant suggests Bruner use arbitrage pricing theory (APT) instead. In compar- ing CAPM and APT, the consultant makes the following arguments: a. Both the CAPM and APT require a mean-variance efficient market portfolio. b. Neither the CAPM nor the APT assumes normally distributed security returns. c. The CAPM assumes that one specific factor explains security returns but APT does not. State whether each of the consultant’s arguments is correct or incorrect. Indicate, for each incorrect argument, why the argument is incorrect. 2. Assume that both X and Y are well-diversified portfolios and the risk-free rate is 8\%. Portfolio Expected Return Beta X !\% !.## Y !$ #.$\% Final PDF to printer bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 330 03/27/17 03:29 PM 330 PART III Equilibrium in Capital Markets sensitivities for a third fund, Orb’s Utility Fund, which has sensitivities equal to 1.0 and 2.0, respectively. McCracken will use his APT results for these three funds to accomplish the task of creating a portfolio with a unit exposure to real GDP and no exposure to inflation. He calls the fund the “GDP Fund.” Stiles says such a GDP Fund would be good for clients who are retirees who live off the steady income of their investments. McCracken does not agree with Stiles, but says that the fund would be a good choice if upcoming supply side macroeconomic policies of the government are successful. 13. According to the APT, if the risk-free rate is 4\%, what should be McCracken’s estimate of the expected return of Orb’s High Growth Fund? 14. With respect to McCracken’s APT model estimate of Orb’s Large Cap Fund and the information Kwon provides, is an arbitrage opportunity available? 15. If the GDP Fund is constructed from the other three funds, which of the following would be its weight in the Utility Fund? (a) −2.2; (b) −3.2; or (c) .3. 16. With respect to the comments of Stiles and McCracken concerning for whom the GDP Fund would be appropriate: a. McCracken is correct and Stiles is wrong. b. Both are correct. c. Stiles is correct and McCracken is wrong. 17. Assume a universe of n (large) securities for which the largest residual variance is not larger than n M 2 . Construct as many different weighting schemes as you can that generate well- diversified portfolios. 18. Derive a more general (than the numerical example in the chapter) demonstration of the APT security market line: a. For a single-factor market. b. For a multifactor market. 19. Small firms generally have relatively high loadings (high betas) on the SMB (small minus big) factor. a. Explain why this is not surprising. b. Now suppose two unrelated small firms merge. Each will be operated as an independent unit of the merged company. Would you expect the stock market behavior of the merged firm to differ from that of a portfolio of the two previously independent firms? c. How does the merger affect market capitalization? d. What is the prediction of the Fama-French model for the risk premium on the merged firm compared to the weighted average of the two component companies? e. Do we see here a problem in applying the FF model? 1. Jeffrey Bruner, CFA, uses the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to help identify mispriced securities. A consultant suggests Bruner use arbitrage pricing theory (APT) instead. In compar- ing CAPM and APT, the consultant makes the following arguments: a. Both the CAPM and APT require a mean-variance efficient market portfolio. b. Neither the CAPM nor the APT assumes normally distributed security returns. c. The CAPM assumes that one specific factor explains security returns but APT does not. State whether each of the consultant’s arguments is correct or incorrect. Indicate, for each incorrect argument, why the argument is incorrect. 2. Assume that both X and Y are well-diversified portfolios and the risk-free rate is 8\%. PortfolioExpected ReturnBeta X16\%1.00 Y120.25 Final PDF to printer C H A P T E R ! Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Multifactor Models of Risk and Return ##! bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 331 03/27/17 03:29 PM In this situation you would conclude that portfolios X and Y: a. Are in equilibrium. b. Offer an arbitrage opportunity. c. Are both underpriced. d. Are both fairly priced. 3. A zero-investment portfolio with a positive alpha could arise if: a. The expected return of the portfolio equals zero. b. The capital market line is tangent to the opportunity set. c. The Law of One Price remains unviolated. d. A risk-free arbitrage opportunity exists. 4. According to the theory of arbitrage: a. High-beta stocks are consistently overpriced. b. Low-beta stocks are consistently overpriced. c. Positive alpha investment opportunities will quickly disappear. d. Rational investors will pursue arbitrage opportunities consistent with their risk tolerance. 5. The general arbitrage pricing theory (APT) differs from the single-factor capital asset pricing model (CAPM) because the APT: a. Places more emphasis on market risk. b. Minimizes the importance of diversification. c. Recognizes multiple unsystematic risk factors. d. Recognizes multiple systematic risk factors. 6. An investor takes as large a position as possible when an equilibrium price relationship is vio- lated. This is an example of: a. A dominance argument. b. The mean-variance efficient frontier. c. Arbitrage activity. d. The capital asset pricing model. 7. The feature of the general version of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) that offers the greatest potential advantage over the simple CAPM is the: a. Identification of anticipated changes in production, inflation, and term structure of interest rates as key factors explaining the risk–return relationship. b. Superior measurement of the risk-free rate of return over historical time periods. c. Variability of coefficients of sensitivity to the APT factors for a given asset over time. d. Use of several factors instead of a single market index to explain the risk–return relationship. 8. In contrast to the capital asset pricing model, arbitrage pricing theory: a. Requires that markets be in equilibrium. b. Uses risk premiums based on micro variables. c. Specifies the number and identifies specific factors that determine expected returns. d. Does not require the restrictive assumptions concerning the market portfolio. E$INVESTMENTS EXERCISES One of the factors in the APT model specified in an influential paper by Chen, Roll, and Ross*\%is the percent change in unanticipated inflation. Who gains and who loses when inflation changes? Go to http://hussmanfunds.com/rsi/infsurprises.htm to see a graph of the Inflation Surprise Index and Economists’ Inflation Forecasts. *See Nai-Fu Chen, Richard Roll, and Stephen Ross, “Economic Forces and the Stock Market,” Journal of Business\%59 (1986). Final PDF to printer bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 332 03/27/17 03:29 PM !! P A R T I I I Equilibrium in Capital Markets SOLUTIONS TO CONCEPT CHECKS 1. The GDP beta is 1.2 and GDP growth is 1\% better than previously expected. So you will increase your forecast for the stock return by 1.2 ! 1\% = 1.2\%. The revised forecast is for an 11.2\% return. 2. a. This portfolio is not well diversified. The weight on the first security does not decline as n increases. Regardless of how much diversification there is in the rest of the portfolio, you will not shed the firm-specific risk of this security. b. This portfolio is well diversified. Even though some stocks have three times the weight of other stocks (1.5/n versus .5/n), the weight on all stocks approaches zero as n increases. The impact of any individual stock’s firm-specific risk will approach zero as n becomes ever larger. 3. The equilibrium return is E(r) = rf + P1 [ E(r1) # rf ] + P2 [ E(r2) # rf ] . Using the data in Example 10.4: E(r)$=$4$+$.2$ !$(10$#$4)$+$1.4$!$(12$#$4)$=$16.4\% Final PDF to printer !# P A R T I I I Equilibrium in Capital Markets bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 310 03/27/17 03:29 PM The index model introduced in Chapter 8 gave us a way of decomposing stock variability into market or systematic risk, due largely to macroeconomic events, versus firm-specific or idiosyncratic effects that can be diversified in large portfolios. In the single-index model, the return on a broad market-index portfolio summarized the impact of the macro factor. In Chapter 9 we introduced the possibility that risk premiums may also depend on cor- relations with extra-market risk factors, such as inflation, or changes in the parameters describing future investment opportunities: interest rates, volatility, market-risk premi- ums, and betas. For example, returns on an asset whose return increases when inflation increases can be used to hedge uncertainty in the future inflation rate. Its price may rise and its risk premium may fall as a result of investors’ extra demand for this asset. Risk premiums of individual securities should reflect their sensitivities to changes in extra-market risk factors just as their betas on the market index determine their risk premiums in the simple CAPM. When securities can be used to hedge these factors, the resulting hedging demands will turn the SML into a multifactor model, with each significant risk source generating an additional factor. Risk factors can be represented either by returns on these hedge portfolios (just as the index portfolio represents the market factor), or more directly by changes in the risk factors themselves, for example, changes in interest rates or inflation. Factor Models of Security Returns We begin with a familiar single-factor model like the one introduced in Chapter 8. Uncer- tainty in asset returns has two sources: a common or macroeconomic factor and firm- specific events. By construction, the common factor has zero expected value because it measures!new information concerning the macroeconomy; new information implies a revi- sion to current expectations, and if initial expectations are rational, then such revisions should average out to zero. If we call F the deviation of the common factor from its expected value, i the sensi- tivity of firm i to that factor, and ei the firm-specific disturbance, the factor model states that the actual excess return on firm i will equal its initially expected value plus a (zero expected value) random amount attributable to unanticipated economywide events, plus another (zero expected value) random amount attributable to firm-specific events. Formally, the single-factor model of excess returns is described by Equation 10.1: Ri!=!E(Ri )!+!i F!+!ei (10.1) where E(Ri ) is the expected excess return on stock i. Notice that if the macro factor has a value of 0 in any particular period (i.e., no macro surprises), the excess return on the secu- rity will equal its previously expected value, E(Ri ), plus the effect of firm-specific events only. The nonsystematic components of returns, the ei s, are assumed to be uncorrelated across stocks and with the factor F. 10.1 Multifactor Models: A Preview To illustrate the factor model, suppose that the macro factor, F,!represents!news about the state of the business cycle, which we will measure by the unexpected percentage change in gross domestic product (GDP). The consensus is that GDP will increase by \% this year. Suppose also that a stock’s value is #.$. If GDP increases by only \%\%, then the value Example 10.1 Factor Models Final PDF to printer !# P A R T I I I Equilibrium in Capital Markets bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 312 03/27/17 03:29 PM beta on GDP. But the utility’s stock price may have a relatively high sensitivity to interest rates. Because the cash flow generated by the utility is relatively stable, its present value behaves much like that of a bond, varying inversely with interest rates. Conversely, the per- formance of the airline is very sensitive to economic activity but is less sensitive to interest rates. It will have a high GDP beta and a lower interest rate beta. Suppose that on a particu- lar day, a news item suggests that the economy will expand. GDP is expected to increase, but so are interest rates. Is the “macro news” on this day good or bad? For the utility, this is bad news: Its dominant sensitivity is to rates. But for the airline, which responds more to GDP, this is good news. Clearly a one-factor or single-index model cannot capture such differential responses to varying sources of macroeconomic uncertainty. Factor betas can provide a framework for a hedging strategy. The idea for an investor who wishes to hedge a source of risk is to establish an opposite factor exposure to offset that particular source of risk. Often, futures contracts can be used to hedge particular factor exposures. We explore this application in Chapter 22. As it stands, however, the multifactor model is no more than a description of the fac- tors that affect security returns. There is no “theory” in the equation. The obvious question left unanswered by a factor model like Equation 10.2 is where E(R) comes from, in other words, what determines a security’s expected excess rate of return. This is where we need a theoretical model of equilibrium security returns. We therefore now turn to arbitrage pricing theory to help determine the expected value, E(R), in Equations 10.1 and 10.2. Stephen Ross developed the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) in 1976.1 Like the CAPM, the APT predicts a security market line linking expected returns to risk, but the path it takes to the SML is quite different. Ross’s APT relies on three key propositions: (1) Secu- rity returns can be described by a factor model; (2) there are sufficient securities to diver- sify away idiosyncratic risk; and (3) well-functioning security markets do not allow for the persistence of arbitrage opportunities. We begin with a simple version of Ross’s model, which assumes that only one systematic factor affects security returns. Once we under- stand how the model works, it will be much easier to see how it can be generalized to accommodate more than one factor. 10.2 Arbitrage Pricing Theory 1Stephen A. Ross, “Return, Risk and Arbitrage,” in I. Friend and J. Bicksler, eds., Risk and Return in Finance (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1976). Suppose we estimate the two-factor model in Equation !.# for Northeast Airlines and find the following result: R!=!.!$$\%+\%!.#(GDP)!!.$(IR)\%+\%e This tells us that, based on currently available information, the expected excess rate of return for Northeast is !$.$\%, but that for every percentage point increase in GDP beyond current expectations, the return on Northeast’s shares increases on average by !.#\%, while for every unanticipated percentage point that interest rates increase, Northeast’s shares fall on average by .$\%. Example 10.2 Risk Assessment Using Multifactor Models Final PDF to printer C H A P T E R ! Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Multifactor Models of Risk and Return #!# bod77178_ch10_309-332.indd 313 03/27/17 03:29 PM Arbitrage, Risk Arbitrage, and Equilibrium An arbitrage opportunity arises when an investor can earn riskless profits without making a net investment. A trivial example of an arbitrage opportunity would arise if shares of a stock sold for different prices on two different exchanges. For example, suppose IBM sold for $165 on the NYSE but only $163 on NASDAQ. Then you could buy the shares on NASDAQ and simultaneously sell them on the NYSE, clearing a riskless profit of $2 per share without tying up any of your own capital. The Law of One Price states that if two assets are equivalent in all economically relevant respects, then they should have the same market price. The Law of One Price is enforced by arbitrageurs: If they observe a violation of the law, they will engage in arbitrage activity—simultaneously buying the asset where it is cheap and selling where it is expensive. In the process, they will bid up the price where it is low and force it down where it is high until the arbitrage opportunity is eliminated. Strategies that exploit violations of the Law of One Price all involve long–short positions. You buy the relatively cheap asset and sell the relatively overpriced one. The net investment, therefore, is zero. Moreover, the position is riskless. Therefore, any investor, regardless of risk aversion or wealth, will want to take an infinite position in it. Because those large positions will quickly force prices up or down until the opportunity vanishes, security prices should satisfy a “no-arbitrage condition,” that is, a condition that rules out the existence of arbitrage opportunities. The idea that market prices will move to rule out arbitrage opportunities is perhaps the most fundamental concept in capital market theory. Violation of this restriction would indicate the grossest form of market irrationality. There is an important difference between arbitrage and risk–return dominance argu- ments in support of equilibrium price relationships. A dominance argument holds that when an equilibrium price relationship is violated, many investors will make limited portfolio changes, depending on their degree of risk aversion. Aggregation of these limited portfolio changes is required to create a large volume of buying and selling, which in turn restores equilibrium prices. By contrast, when arbitrage opportunities exist, each inves- tor wants to take as large a position as possible; hence it will not take many investors to bring about the price pressures necessary to restore equilibrium. Therefore, implications for prices derived from no-arbitrage arguments are stronger than implications derived from a risk–return dominance argument. The CAPM is an example of a dominance argument, implying that all investors hold mean-variance efficient portfolios. If a security is mispriced, then investors will tilt their portfolios toward the underpriced and away from the overpriced securities. Pressure on equilibrium prices results from many investors shifting their portfolios, each by a relatively small dollar amount. The assumption that a large number of investors are mean-variance optimizers is critical. In contrast, the implication of a no-arbitrage condition is that a few investors who identify an arbitrage opportunity will mobilize large dollar amounts and quickly restore equilibrium. Practitioners often use the terms arbitrage and arbitrageurs more loosely than our strict definition. Arbitrageur often refers to a professional searching for mispriced securities in specific areas such as merger-target stocks, rather than to one who seeks strict (risk-free) arbitrage opportunities. Such activity is sometimes called risk arbitrage to distinguish it from pure arbitrage. Well-Diversified Portfolios We begin by considering the risk of a portfolio of stocks in a single-factor market. We first show that if a portfolio is well diversified, its firm-specific or nonfactor risk becomes Final PDF to printer
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Discuss how two-way communication on social media channels impacts businesses both positively and negatively. Provide any personal examples from your experience od pressure and hypertension via a community-wide intervention that targets the problem across the lifespan (i.e. includes all ages). Develop a community-wide intervention to reduce elevated blood pressure and hypertension in the State of Alabama that in in body of the report Conclusions References (8 References Minimum) *** Words count = 2000 words. *** In-Text Citations and References using Harvard style. *** In Task section I’ve chose (Economic issues in overseas contracting)" Electromagnetism w or quality improvement; it was just all part of good nursing care.  The goal for quality improvement is to monitor patient outcomes using statistics for comparison to standards of care for different diseases e a 1 to 2 slide Microsoft PowerPoint presentation on the different models of case management.  Include speaker notes... .....Describe three different models of case management. visual representations of information. They can include numbers SSAY ame workbook for all 3 milestones. You do not need to download a new copy for Milestones 2 or 3. When you submit Milestone 3 pages): Provide a description of an existing intervention in Canada making the appropriate buying decisions in an ethical and professional manner. Topic: Purchasing and Technology You read about blockchain ledger technology. Now do some additional research out on the Internet and share your URL with the rest of the class be aware of which features their competitors are opting to include so the product development teams can design similar or enhanced features to attract more of the market. The more unique low (The Top Health Industry Trends to Watch in 2015) to assist you with this discussion.         https://youtu.be/fRym_jyuBc0 Next year the $2.8 trillion U.S. healthcare industry will   finally begin to look and feel more like the rest of the business wo evidence-based primary care curriculum. Throughout your nurse practitioner program Vignette Understanding Gender Fluidity Providing Inclusive Quality Care Affirming Clinical Encounters Conclusion References Nurse Practitioner Knowledge Mechanics and word limit is unit as a guide only. The assessment may be re-attempted on two further occasions (maximum three attempts in total). All assessments must be resubmitted 3 days within receiving your unsatisfactory grade. You must clearly indicate “Re-su Trigonometry Article writing Other 5. June 29 After the components sending to the manufacturing house 1. In 1972 the Furman v. Georgia case resulted in a decision that would put action into motion. Furman was originally sentenced to death because of a murder he committed in Georgia but the court debated whether or not this was a violation of his 8th amend One of the first conflicts that would need to be investigated would be whether the human service professional followed the responsibility to client ethical standard.  While developing a relationship with client it is important to clarify that if danger or Ethical behavior is a critical topic in the workplace because the impact of it can make or break a business No matter which type of health care organization With a direct sale During the pandemic Computers are being used to monitor the spread of outbreaks in different areas of the world and with this record 3. Furman v. Georgia is a U.S Supreme Court case that resolves around the Eighth Amendments ban on cruel and unsual punishment in death penalty cases. The Furman v. Georgia case was based on Furman being convicted of murder in Georgia. Furman was caught i One major ethical conflict that may arise in my investigation is the Responsibility to Client in both Standard 3 and Standard 4 of the Ethical Standards for Human Service Professionals (2015).  Making sure we do not disclose information without consent ev 4. Identify two examples of real world problems that you have observed in your personal Summary & Evaluation: Reference & 188. Academic Search Ultimate Ethics We can mention at least one example of how the violation of ethical standards can be prevented. Many organizations promote ethical self-regulation by creating moral codes to help direct their business activities *DDB is used for the first three years For example The inbound logistics for William Instrument refer to purchase components from various electronic firms. During the purchase process William need to consider the quality and price of the components. In this case 4. A U.S. Supreme Court case known as Furman v. Georgia (1972) is a landmark case that involved Eighth Amendment’s ban of unusual and cruel punishment in death penalty cases (Furman v. Georgia (1972) With covid coming into place In my opinion with Not necessarily all home buyers are the same! When you choose to work with we buy ugly houses Baltimore & nationwide USA The ability to view ourselves from an unbiased perspective allows us to critically assess our personal strengths and weaknesses. This is an important step in the process of finding the right resources for our personal learning style. Ego and pride can be · By Day 1 of this week While you must form your answers to the questions below from our assigned reading material CliftonLarsonAllen LLP (2013) 5 The family dynamic is awkward at first since the most outgoing and straight forward person in the family in Linda Urien The most important benefit of my statistical analysis would be the accuracy with which I interpret the data. The greatest obstacle From a similar but larger point of view 4 In order to get the entire family to come back for another session I would suggest coming in on a day the restaurant is not open When seeking to identify a patient’s health condition After viewing the you tube videos on prayer Your paper must be at least two pages in length (not counting the title and reference pages) The word assimilate is negative to me. I believe everyone should learn about a country that they are going to live in. It doesnt mean that they have to believe that everything in America is better than where they came from. It means that they care enough Data collection Single Subject Chris is a social worker in a geriatric case management program located in a midsize Northeastern town. She has an MSW and is part of a team of case managers that likes to continuously improve on its practice. The team is currently using an I would start off with Linda on repeating her options for the child and going over what she is feeling with each option.  I would want to find out what she is afraid of.  I would avoid asking her any “why” questions because I want her to be in the here an Summarize the advantages and disadvantages of using an Internet site as means of collecting data for psychological research (Comp 2.1) 25.0\% Summarization of the advantages and disadvantages of using an Internet site as means of collecting data for psych Identify the type of research used in a chosen study Compose a 1 Optics effect relationship becomes more difficult—as the researcher cannot enact total control of another person even in an experimental environment. Social workers serve clients in highly complex real-world environments. Clients often implement recommended inte I think knowing more about you will allow you to be able to choose the right resources Be 4 pages in length soft MB-920 dumps review and documentation and high-quality listing pdf MB-920 braindumps also recommended and approved by Microsoft experts. The practical test g One thing you will need to do in college is learn how to find and use references. References support your ideas. College-level work must be supported by research. You are expected to do that for this paper. You will research Elaborate on any potential confounds or ethical concerns while participating in the psychological study 20.0\% Elaboration on any potential confounds or ethical concerns while participating in the psychological study is missing. Elaboration on any potenti 3 The first thing I would do in the family’s first session is develop a genogram of the family to get an idea of all the individuals who play a major role in Linda’s life. After establishing where each member is in relation to the family A Health in All Policies approach Note: The requirements outlined below correspond to the grading criteria in the scoring guide. At a minimum Chen Read Connecting Communities and Complexity: A Case Study in Creating the Conditions for Transformational Change Read Reflections on Cultural Humility Read A Basic Guide to ABCD Community Organizing Use the bolded black section and sub-section titles below to organize your paper. For each section Losinski forwarded the article on a priority basis to Mary Scott Losinksi wanted details on use of the ED at CGH. He asked the administrative resident