Fluent Essays

Assignment info under CriminalBassignment Please follow rubrics and the instruction at the bottom. - APA Style Topic: Evaluate the claim “we can predict who will become a criminal”. Maximum word length: 1500 words not including reference list or table of contents. To start you off on this topic you should look at the following 3 articles. You will then need to source an additional 15 articles from peer-reviewed journals. Additional information and guidance of literature searching will be given in workshops and online. Herrenkohl, T. I., Jung, H. J., & Lee, J. O. (2017). Effects of child maltreatment, cumulative victimization experiences, and proximal life stress on adult crime and antisocial behavior. Summary Report for US Department of Justice. Keatley, D. A., Golightly, H., Shephard, R., Yaksic, E., & Reid, S. (2018). Using behavior sequence analysis to map serial killers’ life histories. Journal of interpersonal violence, 0886260518759655. Monahan, J. (1984). The prediction of violent behavior. American Journal of Psychiatry, 141(1), 10-15. Using these articles and other research to justify your position, you will need to draw a conclusion about the predictive accuracy of tools and methods that predict the likelihood of offending., My Expectations: · You can choose any crime behaviour you like. Articles listed above are for example purposes. You can look at other areas covered in the course. · I want to distinguish between your own opinion and your conclusion. You will be aware that we do not want your opinion about a topic. An opinion is your subjective belief about a topic. A conclusion is your position based a review and interpretation of academic literature. I am interested in your ability to read and synthesise academic literature and come to a conclusion based on an integration the relevant material. · Structure your paper. Use informative headings and sub-headings to guide the reader through your paper. Create a table of contents from these headings and subheadings at the beginning of your paper. There is a function for this in WORD and if you are not familiar with it, now is the time to learn to use it. The table of contents does not comprise part of the word limit. · In order to write this paper you will need to do research, i.e. find empirical and theoretical research from peer reviewed journals. Analyse this research and demonstrate how it is relevant to the topic. · You are expected to use your critical and analytical skills in this essay. Avoid mere description or regurgitation. Both your observations and your use of other peoples writing should reflect this critical/analytical dimension. In sum, your intellectual input should be clearly discernible in the paper. Remember the 5 Cs: cite, compare, contrast, connect, critique (See https://intranet.ecu.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/20621/literature_review.pdf ) · You are not marked for your political or social views or opinions, but rather for your ability to present coherent, rational and logical arguments, properly supported by research. · You are also assessed on your ability to express yourself clearly, logically and succinctly. Poor expression, grammar, punctuation and spelling will detract from your overall mark. · Do not directly quote form sources. Instead, you must paraphrase: put the ideas expressed in the literature in your own words. You must provide a reference every time you paraphrase words, facts and ideas found in the literature. The in-text references (required by APA style) are included in the word limit. Include a reference list at the end of your assignment. The reference list should be a separate page at the end of the essay and is not included in the word limit. Use the APA referencing style – see http://libguides.murdoch.edu.au/APA for more information. · Please note that your research effort, demonstrated by your engagement with the material you have found, analysed and implemented into your own writing (and properly referenced) will be the central pillar for the mark you will receive. General instructions for completing assignments in this unit Before you submit any work for this unit, please ensure it conforms to the following parameters: 1. Submit your paper as a WORD document only. 1. You may not use direct quotes in your work. Restate and rework key points from published research into your own words. 1. You may not use secondary citations. Go and find the original source or find another way to substantiate your claims. 1. Do not include a cover page. A title above the start of your work is all that is required. 1. Only put your student number in the header or footer, not your name. I blind mark and this helps ensure impartiality. 1. The word limit is the longest your essay can be (excluding the reference list). Your work may be under the word limit if you feel that you can sufficiently answer the question in less, but it may not be over. There is no + or – 10\%. 1 mark will be deducted for every 50 words that you are over the word limit (e.g. 2001 words = 1 mark deducted, 2051 words = 2 marks deducted). 1. Include a word count at the end of the essay (excluding the reference list). I will check the word count before I start marking. 1. Please note that when you submit your essay for marking, your assignment will be automatically submitted for scanning by the university electronic plagiarism detection software, Urkund (see below, for more detail). All cases of academic misconduct will be reported without exception in accordance with the University’s policies: (https://policy.murdoch.edu.au/dotNet/documents/?docid=1353&LinkedFromInsertedLink=true&public=true) Urkund is a pattern-matching system designed to compare work submitted by students with other sources from the internet, journals/periodicals, and previous submissions that have been made to Urkund. Its primary purpose is to detect any submitted work that is not original and provide a thorough comparison between the submitted document and the original sources. More information about Urkund is available at: http://our.murdoch.edu.au/Student-life/Study-successfully/Referencing-and-citing/Using-Urkund/ 1. Familiarise yourself with the “What I need to know” link on the Murdoch website. This includes links relating to: 8. Links to the Assessment Policy; 8. A description of Academic Integrity; 8. Examinations; 8. Non-discriminatory language; 8. Student appeals; 8. Student complaints; 8. Conscientious objection and assessment policy; 8. Determination of grades from components/marks; and 8. Information for equity students 1. As to ease of comprehension, I suggest you ask a student/friend/parent/sibling not enrolled in this unit to read your work and ask them if it is easy to understand. Even reading your essay out aloud will assist in detecting minor grammatical and/or punctuation errors that are easily overlooked when proofreading. Marking criteria for essay The essay will be marked according to the following rubric. The marks are out of 100\%. The essay is worth 30\% of the unit mark. Objective/criteria (Total 100\%) Performance indicators Less than 50\% Around 65\% Over 80\% Research skills and knowledge of subject matter (35\%) (less than 17\%) Refers to a limited range of materials (less than that recommended) and/or references to dubious sources (e.g., Wikipedia) and/or overreliance on certain sources. ( ≈ 22\%) Adequate number of sources consulted, and good/accurate comprehension of the broad issues. ( ≤ 28\%) Excellent range and quality of resources consulted; excellent understanding and grasp of subject matter displayed. Excellent comprehension of both the broader picture and the nuances of the topic. Grammar, punctuation and spelling (15\%) (less than 8\%) Contains many errors. ( ≈ 10\%) Contains a few of errors. ( ≤ 12\%) Contains almost no errors. Persuasive and cogently written (20\%) (less than 10\%) Relies only on available material without attempting own analysis. May be overly colloquial, or too flowery. ( ≈ 13\%) Sufficiently detailed analysis given word limit, displays some critical thinking and original viewpoint. Writes in plain English most of the time. ( ≤ 16\%) Balances narrative and analysis, makes valuable contribution to debate with novel or original viewpoint; supports arguments with material from the litrerature. Writes in plain English. Structure (20\%) (less than 10\%) Does not keep on track. Does not contain clear structure. ( ≈ 13\%) Intro, body and conclusion linked and effectively explained. Issues separated but interaction explained. ( ≤ 16\%) Exceptionally well thought out structure, which aids the overall persuasiveness of the paper. Appropriately referenced within and at end of essay and within word limit (10\%) (less than 5\%) No reference section OR over word limit. ( ≈ 7\%) Incomplete reference section (missing information or incorrect format). ( ≤ 8\%) Complete reference section appropriately laid out. A timeline toolkit for cold case investigations David Keatley and David D. Clarke Abstract Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to outline a variety of related methods for helping with criminal (cold) case investigations. Despite the best efforts of police investigations, many cases around the world run out of leads and go cold. While many police departments around the world have developed specialist groups and task forces, academics have also been developing new methods that can assist with investigations. Design/methodology/approach – Cold cases, by their very nature, typically comprise incomplete data sets that many traditional statistical methods are not suited to. Groups of researchers have therefore developed temporal, dynamic analysis methods to offer new insights into criminal investigations. These methods are combined into a timeline toolkit and are outlined in the current paper. Findings – Methods from the timeline toolkit have already been successfully applied to many cold cases, turning them back into current cases. In this paper, two real-world cold cases are analysed with methods from the timeline toolkit to provide examples of how these methods can be applied in further cold cases. Originality/value – Methods from the timeline toolkit provide a novel approach to investigating current and cold cases. This review provides academics and practitioners with a guide to begin using and developing these methods and forming successful collaborations with police departments and cold case task forces. The methods are also suitable for wider groups and to use in their investigations. Keywords Methods, Cold case, Investigations, Temporal analysis, Sequence analysis, Timeline toolkit Paper type Case study Every crime occurs across varying periods of time. One task facing investigators is to determine the chain of events that occurred during the commission of a crime. Sometimes this is relatively simple, based on forensic evidence or eyewitness testimony, other times it may come down to judgement and heuristics. Despite the best efforts of investigators, criminal cases may run out of leads or evidence to test, and go “cold”. Such cold cases have gained widespread media interest in recent years, leading to the development of specialised Cold Case Task Forces, which typically involve groups of specialists from police detectives to forensic odontologists. These task forces review cases and consider what new methods or technology may be used to assist with solving or closing a cold case. Alongside the advancements made in forensic sciences, academics in the social sciences, such as psychology and criminology, have also developed new methods and processes that can assist with police investigations and cold cases. However, from the outset it should be made clear: these methods do not solve cases. They are provided as a means for academics to understand how temporal methods can be applied to cold cases, as well as for detectives to approach their cases from a new angle. The timeline toolkit does not provide a “magic bullet” to solving cases, but it can be used to bridge the gap between academics in criminology and psychology, and detectives. Traditional approaches to research in disciplines such as psychology have focussed on individual risk factors that are “tested” in statistical approaches such as (hierarchical) David Keatley is based at Researchers in Behaviour Sequence Analysis (ReBSA), Nottingham, UK and School of Law, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia. David D. Clarke is based at the Researchers in Behaviour Sequence Analysis (ReBSA) and School of Psychology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK. Received 16 September 2019 Revised 8 November 2019 Accepted 13 November 2019 DOI 10.1108/JCP-09-2019-0039 VOL. 10 NO. 2 2020, pp. 47-63, © Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 2009-3829j JOURNAL OF CRIMINAL PSYCHOLOGYj PAGE 47 http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/JCP-09-2019-0039 regression models or multilevel modelling, for example, in forensic psychology, research into attitudes and perceptions are commonly conducted. While this provides some interesting information on the cognitions of students (used as a proxy for offenders), it has limited applied value. Furthermore, the statistics underpinning such studies (e.g. regression analyses) posit a number of predictor variables on a single outcome behaviour[1]. Therefore, groups of researchers have turned to novel approaches to understand criminal behaviours (Keatley, 2018; Taylor et al., 2008) as well as investigating cold cases or crime scene behaviours (Ferguson, 2015, 2019). The focus of this paper is to outline a series of methods that academics have been using in the area of forensics and criminology, collectively termed the Timeline Toolkit, as they share a commonality in focussing on temporal episodes of behaviours. Each method will be listed and explained in this paper. Finally, two real-world cold cases will be investigated through two of the “tools” in the timeline toolkit, crime script analysis (CSA; Cornish, 1994; Leclerc and Wortley, 2013) and Behaviour Sequence Analysis (BSA; Clarke and Crossland, 1985; Ivanouw, 2007; Keatley, 2018), to show investigators how such approaches may assist with their investigations. The aim is to bridge the gap between cold case detectives and academics. Data collected in most controlled, laboratory studies in academia are typically complete and relatively well-structured. While the researcher may not know the outcome of the study, they likely know what the data will look like, and missing data are purposefully kept to a minimum. This makes for clearer data from which results can be seen and conclusions drawn; however, such methods are less useful in real-world contexts and cases, wherein the data or evidence are typically unstructured, competing, missing and/or chaotic. Many cold cases have significant gaps in knowledge or evidence, and attempting to run conventional statistical techniques would not only be unwise, but in many cases would not even be possible. While many detectives are open to any additional input and advice available for their cold cases, they are under intense pressure to solve their cases in a way that is defensible in court. Many cases that have gone cold lack the forensic evidence necessary to solve them. It is at this stage, in particular, that methods from the timeline toolkit can be of most use: providing fresh insight or novel understanding. It should be made clear, however, that while the methods have proven useful in a number of cold cases already, they are not a magical remedy to fix or solve all cases. Sound detective work and expertise is, and will always be, central to solving crimes. The timeline toolkit, however, offers several methods that can help investigations along the way. Timeline Toolkit Everything we do happens over the course of episodes in time. These episodes may span from a few seconds to many years, but the process for analysing them remains similar. Timelines are like maps, in the same way that a map can be zoomed-in on for street-level detail, or zoomed-out of to global scales, maps and directions still follow the same principles. Within temporal analyses, there are a number of techniques for analysing the progression of behaviours and events across time. For investigative purposes, this allows academics to analyse either life histories of potential suspects or victims (Keatley, Golightly, Shephard, Yaksic and Reid, 2018), or crime-scene-specific behaviours (Fossi et al., 2005; Keatley et al., 2017; Lawrence et al., 2010). The scale may change, but the directions or methods remain the same. Recently, a group of academics have formed an international network of specialists in methods for temporal analyses: Researchers in Behaviour Sequence Analysis (ReBSA; www.ReBSA.co.uk). The “timeline toolkit” refers to a number of methods for temporal analyses that members of ReBSA have either developed or used. Across most of the methods used in the timeline toolkit, the underlying principle is to analyse the progression of behaviours or events. To do this, an episode first needs to be broken down, or parsed, into discrete parts. These parts may refer to behaviours (e.g. stabs victim, moves body), or PAGE 48j JOURNAL OF CRIMINAL PSYCHOLOGYjVOL. 10 NO. 2 2020 http://www.ReBSA.co.uk events (e.g. graduates school, loses job and divorce), or “chunks of time” in which a count of how many behaviours occur is measured (e.g. number of burglaries between 10 p.m. and midnight; number of attacks reported from 2012 to 2013). The parsing process is typically straightforward; however, it is sometimes not necessarily clear when a behaviour starts and ends. For example, “shoots a gun” is a relatively discrete behaviour that is clearly marked in time as beginning (pulling the trigger) and ending (gun fires); however, cognitive states (e.g. depression) or diffuse, prolonged behaviours (e.g. physical abuse) may occur over an extended period with start-and-end points less clearly defined. Researchers, however, have developed the tools to account for and analyse all of these types of behaviour. The focus of researchers working with timeline toolkit methods is to make the methods fit the data, not vice versa. Therefore, an aim of the present research is to bridge the gap between cold case detective work and academic methodology (see Table I, for examples). Many of the methods in the timeline toolkit are newly developed (e.g. behaviour fingerprinting; behaviour tracking) and clearly need to be re-tested over multiple cases – as is made clear by the authors of those methods. However, the underpinning metrics in those papers is based on well-researched approaches (e.g. Markov modelling). Again, these methods are not like forensic tests – hence they are not “solving” a case, but the methods do allow for novel ways of understanding or investigating a crime – perhaps opening a new line of enquiry for police to explore. Of course, academics should continue developing these methods and exploring their reliability across different cases[2]. Once behaviours have been parsed or split into separate parts, the next stage is to categorise or code them. This allows a “dictionary” of sorts to be built so that other investigators and researchers can immediately see what each behaviour entailed, with a description, as well as allowing future cases to be added to the database or compared to existing, known cases. The categorisation stage does typically take longer than the parsing stage. It is important that behaviours are categorised appropriately so that they are meaningful in a legal context, as well as for research purposes. For example, if a crime is classified as “burglary” it may not be immediately clear in legal terms what specific behaviours have been performed. In the UK, for example, burglary is defined as several different types or categories, each with specific behaviours. In the USA, “breaking and entering” defines a similar type of crime to burglary, but with some key differences in the individual behaviours being performed (Keatley, 2018). This is also why the creation of a code book is particularly useful, so that future researchers, analysts or officers know exactly what is meant by each category. There has been a trend in research to use sophisticated terms to explain concepts, which can sometimes alienate end-users, who either do not have the time to understand what is meant by the new term, or who may feel underwhelmed when they realise the sophisticated term relates to something they already knew. Simple category terms are therefore best in timeline analyses. Once a criminal episode has been parsed and categorised, there are a number of analyses, depending on which method has been used. The main underlying principle of all analyses is: what is the order of behaviours and events across time. An overarching benefit of most of the methods in the timeline toolkit is that they have been developed with end-users in mind and outputs are typically shown in a way that non-expert audiences can understand and interpret results. While the methods are all underpinned by scientific principles and in some cases advanced statistical analyses (e.g. T-pattern analysis; Magnusson, 2000), the output is simplified for wider audiences. Alongside the intuitive appeal of a method that takes the experience and expertise of the detectives involved and builds on it, the presentation of complex results in clear outputs is a benefit of these methods. Criminology and the timeline toolkit All of the methods in the timeline toolkit can be applied to any area of human behaviour; however, there has been a recent surge in the temporal analyses of crime VOL. 10 NO. 2 2020 j JOURNAL OF CRIMINAL PSYCHOLOGYj PAGE 49 T a b le I T im e lin e to o lk it m e th o d s, d e sc ri p tio n s, a n d a ss o ci a te d a u th o rs N a m e o f m e th o d D e s c ri p ti o n A p p lic a ti o n /E x a m p le R e fe re n c e s /A u th o rs a s s o c ia te d B e h a v io u r s e q u e n c e a n a ly s is (B S A ) T h is is o n e o f th e m o s t p re v a le n t m e th o d s o f s e q u e n c e a n a ly s is . It is a v e ry d a ta -d ri v e n , b o tt o m -u p a p p ro a c h in w h ic h in d iv id u a l, d is c re te b e h a v io u rs a re p a rs e d , c a te g o ri s e d , a n d a n a ly s e d . It is th e fo u n d a ti o n o n w h ic h o th e r te c h n iq u e s a re b a s e d /i n te g ra te d (i .e . c a rd s o rt in g , b e h a v io u r tr a c k in g , b e h a v io u ra lf in g e rp ri n ti n g , h id d e n M a rk o v m o d e lli n g ) U s e d to o u tl in e th e p o s s ib le p ro g re s s io n o f e v e n ts , c o n n e c ti n g e v id e n c e s e e n a t c ri m e s c e n e . C a n a ls o b e u s e d to a n a ly s e v e rb a lu tt e ra n c e s (e .g . 9 1 1 c a lls , th re a ts a n d d e m a n d s ) C la rk e a n d C ro s s la n d (1 9 8 5 ), K e a tl e y (2 0 1 8 ), K e a tl e y , M a ro n o a n d C la rk e (2 0 1 8 ), M a ro n o e t a l. (2 0 1 7 ), (R e B S A .c o . u k ) C a rd s o rt in g A s e ri e s o f c a rd s a re u s e d to d is p la y th e te m p o ra l p ro g re s s io n o f e v e n ts a n d b e h a v io u rs . T h is h a s b e e n u s e d in s e lf -h a rm re s e a rc h p re v io u s ly , th o u g h th e in te rv ie w in g o f w it n e s s e s c o u ld b e n e fi t fr o m th is te c h n iq u e , w h ic h c a n im p ro v e re c a ll a n d a c t a s p ro m p ts fo r fu rt h e r q u e s ti o n in g U s e fu lf o r w it n e s s /r e la ti v e s w h o m a y fi n d it h a rd e r to s p e a k a b o u t th e e v e n ts . A n o v e lw a y o f e lic it in g in fo rm a ti o n T o w n s e n d e t a l. (2 0 1 6 ), W a d m a n e t a l. (2 0 1 7 ) O rd e rs o f a p p ro x im a ti o n T h e s im p le s t s e q u e n c e is a “c h a in re a c ti o n ” – e a c h e v e n t d e p e n d s o n ly o n th e o n e b e fo re . B u t th in g s c a n b e m o re c o m p lic a te d . S o m e ti m e s e a c h e v e n t d e p e n d s o n th e p a rt ic u la r c o m b in a ti o n o f th e p re v io u s tw o p re v io u s e v e n ts (o r th e p re v io u s th re e , a n d s o o n ). T h e s e d if fe re n t p a tt e rn s a re c a lle d “f ir s t- o rd e r” , “s e c o n d -o rd e r” a n d “t h ir d -o rd e r” s e q u e n c e s , re s p e c ti v e ly . A n d th e lis t c a n g o o n . T h is p ro p e rt y is c a lle d th e o rd e r o f th e s e q u e n c e , w h ic h is a c o n fu s in g te rm , a s “o rd e r” s o u n d s lik e a n o th e r w o rd fo r “s e q u e n c e ”. It m a y h e lp to th in k o f th e “o rd e r” o f a s e q u e n c e a s m e a n in g it s “d e g re e o f c o m p le x it y ” A s ta ti s ti c a ld e v e lo p m e n t o f s ta n d a rd B S A in w h ic h lo n g e r p re d ic ti v e c h a in s c a n b e m a d e . H a s s im ila r a p p lic a ti o n a s B S A ; b u t, w it h lo n g e r te m p o ra lc h a in s . W h ile th is s e e m s a g o o d a p p ro a c h , it h a s lim it a ti o n s o f o v e rf it ti n g o f d a ta a n d h e n c e w h y la g -o n e , s ta n d a rd B S A is p re fe rr e d M ill e r a n d S e lf ri d g e (1 9 5 0 ) S u rv iv a la n a ly s is T h is m e th o d is u s e d to a n a ly s e th e e x p e c te d d u ra ti o n o f ti m e u n ti la n e v e n t h a p p e n s . E s s e n ti a lly , fr o m a g iv e n p o in t in ti m e , h o w lo n g b e fo re w e s e e a n e v e n t o c c u r. E x a m p le : a ft e r a h o m ic id e , h o w lo n g u n ti l th e (s e ri a l) k ill e r m u rd e rs a n o th e r p e rs o n ? T h is m e th o d s h o w s th e ra te w h ic h e v e n ts o c c u r. It c a n b e u s e d to s h o w d if fe re n c e s b e tw e e n g ro u p s , fo r e x a m p le , d o s e x u a lly m o ti v a te d b u rg la rs re -o ff e n d m o re q u ic k ly th a n fi n a n c ia lly m o ti v a te d b u rg la rs . O r d o y o u n g e r- a g e d s e x u a lo ff e n d e rs re -o ff e n d m o re q u ic k ly th a n o ld e r- a g e s o ff e n d e rs a ft e r re le a s e fr o m p ri s o n U s e fu lf o r ri s k a s s e s s m e n t (i .e . h o w lo n g a ft e r a th re a t o r p ri o r a tt a c k b e fo re th e n e x t a tt a c k ta k e s p la c e ) B ri ff a e t a l. (2 0 1 3 ) P ro x im it y c o e ff ic ie n ts A fo rm o f s e q u e n c e a n a ly s is in w h ic h p ro x im it y o f tw o b e h a v io u rs o r e v e n ts is m e a s u re d . P a rt ic u la rl y u s e fu l fo r in te rr o g a ti o n o r n e g o ti a ti o n s it u a ti o n s , in w h ic h th e d e la y o r d is ta n c e b e tw e e n o n e b e h a v io u r a n d th e n e x t is im p o rt a n t to k n o w U s e fu lf o r in te rv ie w /i n te rr o g a ti o n s to m a tc h v e rb a ls ty le . A ls o u s e fu li n lin g u is ti c a n a ly s e s fo r ti m e b e tw e e n e v e n ts C o rn e r a n d G ill (2 0 1 9 ), P .J . T a y lo r (2 0 0 6 ) (c o n ti n u e d ) PAGE 50j JOURNAL OF CRIMINAL PSYCHOLOGYjVOL. 10 NO. 2 2020 T a b le I N a m e o f m e th o d D e s c ri p ti o n A p p lic a ti o n /E x a m p le R e fe re n c e s /A u th o rs a s s o c ia te d B e h a v io u r tr a c k in g T h is is th e fi rs t m e th o d to c o m b in e te m p o ra la n a ly s e s (B S A ) w it h g e o g ra p h ic p ro fi lin g in a n a tt e m p t to s h o w th e lik e lih o o d o f b e h a v io u rs in s p a c e U s e d in c o ld c a s e s to m a p p o s s ib le ro u te s ta k e n b y v ic ti m a n d p e rp e tr a to r. E s p e c ia lly u s e fu li n c o n ju n c ti o n w it h fo re c a s ti n g m e th o d s K e a tl e y e t a l. (2 0 1 9 ) B e h a v io u ra l fi n g e rp ri n ti n g T h is a p p ro a c h b u ild s o n th e C ri m e L in k a g e re s e a rc h b y p ro v id in g a w a y o f m e a s u ri n g th e s im ila ri ty b e tw e e n tw o b e h a v io u ra lc h a in s . F o r e x a m p le , if 3 w o m e n a re fo u n d m u rd e re d , in v e s ti g a to rs m a y w o n d e r w h e th e r th e y a re lo o k in g fo r 1 , 2 , o r 3 k ill e rs . If w e lo o k a t th e s e q u e n c e o f b e h a v io u rs in e a c h c a s e , w e c a n th e n s e e w h e th e r th e b e h a v io u ra lf in g e rp ri n ts o f e a c h c ri m e s c e n e m a tc h N o t o n ly fo r lin k in g s u s p e c te d s e ri a lk ill e rs , b u t c a n a ls o b e u s e d to “f in d ” s im ila r c ri m e s a llo w in g in v e s ti g a ti o n s to lo o k a t th o s e c ri m e s a n d c o m p a re M O , a n d s o lv a b ili ty fa c to rs . T h is m e th o d a ls o a llo w s ti m e lin e s d e v e lo p e d v ia in te rr o g a ti o n to b e c o m p a re d to k n o w n fa c ts to h ig h lig h t d if fe re n c e s K e a tl e y a n d C la rk e (2 0 1 8 ) T im e s e ri e s a n a ly s is T h is a p p ro a c h ta k e s c o n ti n u o u s v a ri a b le s (l ik e a g ra p h o f c ri m e ra te s ) a n d ta k e s th e s e ri e s a p a rt th e w a v e s in to c y c le s . It p u lls o u t tr e n d s in th e c o n ti n u o u s ly fl u c tu a ti n g v a ri a b le s M o re u s e fu lf o r c o m p a ri s o n o f la rg e r d a ta s e ts o f lo n g e r ti m e lin e s (i .e . c o m p a ri n g h o w m a n y m u rd e re rs h a d ri s k fa c to r “x ” in th e ir c h ild h o o d ) B a k e m a n a n d G o tt m a n (1 9 8 6 ) H id d e n M a rk o v m o d e lli n g In B S A , W h ile w e m a y o b s e rv e B e h a v io u r A (t a lk in g c a lm ly ) a n d B e h a v io u r B (s m ili n g ), th e y a c tu a lly re fl e c t a n u n d e rl y in g s ta te (S ta te 1 : p e rp e tr a to r c a lm ), a n d B e h a v io u r C (s h o u ti n g ) m a y re fl e c t a d if fe re n t u n d e rl y in g s ta te (S ta te 2 : p e rp e tr a to r a n g ry ). W h e re a s A a n d B m a y c h a n g e (i .e . th e o b s e rv e d b e h a v io u rs m a y b e d if fe re n t, s u c h a s D – la u g h in g ) th e u n d e rl y in g s ta te m a y re m a in th e s a m e . S im ila rl y , B e h a v io u r D (p u n c h e s ) m a y b e o b s e rv e d fo llo w in g A a n d B ; b u t, D re m a in s a m a n if e s ta ti o n o f s ta te 2 (a n g ry ) U s e fu lf o r u n d e rs ta n d in g u n d e rl y in g s ta te s ; h o w e v e r, n o t c u rr e n tl y u s e d in c o ld c a s e in v e s ti g a ti o n s . M o re d a ta a re re q u ir e d a n d th e “h id d e n ” a s p e c t is ty p ic a lly o ff - p u tt in g to in v e s ti g a to rs E d d y (2 0 0 4 ), Z u c c h in ie t a l. (2 0 1 7 ) C lu s te re d B S A A n a ly s is o f h ig h e r- o rd e r s e q u e n c e s s e e m s to re q u ir e c o lo s s a ln u m b e rs o f d a ta . F o r in s ta n c e , a s e q u e n c e w it h 2 5 k in d s o f e v e n ts w o u ld n e e d a ta b le w it h 6 2 5 c e lls fo r a fi rs t- o rd e r a n a ly s is , b u t 1 5 ,6 2 5 c e lls fo r s e c o n d o rd e r, a n d 3 9 0 ,6 2 5 c e lls fo r th ir d o rd e r. C le a rl y , a “c o m b in a to ri a le x p lo s io n ” h a s s e t in . D a w k in s (1 9 7 6 ) s o lv e d th is p ro b le m w it h a c le v e r m e th o d th a t fi n d s s h o rt c h a in s fi rs t, a n d th e n h o m e s in o n th o s e to s e e if th e y a re th e k e rn e lo f lo n g e r c h a in s – a b it lik e g ro w in g a c ry s ta lf ro m a s m a ll in it ia l “s e e d ”. B e c a u s e th e s e a rc h fo r p a tt e rn s is s o s e le c ti v e , th e re q u ir e m e n t fo r d a ta o n ly g ro w s g ra d u a lly a s lo n g e r a n d lo n g e r c h a in s a re c o n s id e re d , a n d th e d e te c ti o n o f lo n g -c h a in p a tt e rn s b e c o m e s a p ra c ti c a lp o s s ib ili ty a g a in A s ta ti s ti c a ld e v e lo p m e n t o f th e B S A a p p ro a c h to s h o w h o w b e h a v io u rs c lu s te r to g e th e r in to la rg e r s e q u e n c e s D a w k in s (1 9 7 6 ) (c o n ti n u e d ) VOL. 10 NO. 2 2020 j JOURNAL OF CRIMINAL PSYCHOLOGYj PAGE 51 T a b le I N a m e o f m e th o d D e s c ri p ti o n A p p lic a ti o n /E x a m p le R e fe re n c e s /A u th o rs a s s o c ia te d C ri m e s c ri p t a n a ly s is In c o n tr a s t to B S A , th is is a to p -d o w n a p p ro a c h b a s e d o n p s y c h o lo g ic a l s c ri p t th e o ri e s . T h is a p p ro a c h is m o re q u a lit a ti v e a n d o ft e n e a s ie r fo r p ra c ti ti o n e rs to u n d e rs ta n d a s it d o e s n o t n e e d s ta ti s ti c a lt e c h n iq u e s . It a ls o w o rk s p a rt ic u la rl y w e ll c o m p a re d to B S A o n d a ta o r c a s e s w h e re n o t a ll in fo rm a ti o n is k n o w n . It w o rk s b e s t w h e n o th e r c a s e s c a n b e u s e d to b u ild a “s c ri p t” a n d th e n th e c a s e b e in g in v e s ti g a te d c a n b e c o m p a re d to th o s e s c ri p ts /t h o s e s c ri p ts c a n b e u s e d u n d e rs ta n d th e c o ld c a s e A s o u tl in e d in th is p a p e r, u s e fu lf o r c a s e s in w h ic h d e ta ile d s p e c if ic in fo rm a ti o n is n o t a v a ila b le . It p ro v id e s a n in it ia lt e m p o ra la p p ro a c h to c ri m e in v e s ti g a ti o n s . It a ls o in v o lv e s p o lic e in th e d e v e lo p m e n t o f ti m e lin e c h a in s , w h ic h w o rk s a s a u s e fu ls ta rt in g p o in t. A llo w s re s e a rc h e rs to b u ild d a ta b a s e s o f C S A c h a in s B e a u re g a rd e t a l. (2 0 0 7 ), E k b lo m a n d G ill (2 0 1 6 ), H o m e le t a l. (2 0 1 4 ), K e a tl e y e t a l. (2 0 1 9 ), B . L e c le rc a n d W o rt le y (2 0 1 4 ), B e n o it L e c le rc e t a l. (2 0 1 1 ) T -p a tt e rn a n a ly s is T h is a n a ly s is a llo w s fo r m u lt ip le c o n c u rr e n t a n d s e q u e n ti a l b e h a v io u rs to b e a n a ly s e d a c ro s s ti m e . T h e p a tt e rn s (e .g . X Y Z ) c a n b e a n a ly s e d to s h o w h o w fr e q u e n tl y th e y o c c u r a c ro s s ti m e , a n d w h e th e r th e y fo rm p a rt o f a la rg e r h ie ra rc h y o f s e q u e n c e s (e .g . (A ! (X Y Z )) ). T -p a tt e rn a n a ly s is c a n fi n d s e q u e n c e s th a t a re n o t im m e d ia te ly a p p a re n t o r o b v io u s , e v e n to th e tr a in e d e y e – e s p e c ia lly in c a s e s w h e re s e q u e n c e p a tt e rn s a re s p re a d o v e r ti m e . T h e a n a ly s is d o e s le a d to c o m p le x o u tp u ts ; h o w e v e r, tr a in e d e x p e rt s c a n fa c ili ta te u n d e rs ta n d in g th ro u g h c le a re r e x p la n a ti o n s th a n th e c o m p u te ri s e d o u tp u t c u rr e n tl y g iv e s U s e fu lf o r in te rr o g a ti o n a n a ly s e s . W h ile th e a c a d e m ic lit e ra tu re is ty p ic a lly u n fa v o u ra b le to d e c e p ti o n d e te c ti o n , th e a b ili ty to c o m b in e v e rb a la n d n o n v e rb a l c u e s is u s e fu l M a g n u s s o n (2 0 0 0 ), M a g n u s s o n e t a l. (2 0 1 6 ) In d ic a to r w a v e s T h is a p p ro a c h a ls o a llo w s m u lt ip le c o n c u rr e n t b e h a v io u rs a n d e v e n ts to b e m e a s u re d a n d w a v e s a re p lo tt e d to in d ic a te w h e n a fu tu re b e h a v io u r m a y o c c u r. F o r e x a m p le , if w e s e e b e h a v io u rs x , y a n d z o c c u rr in g a b o v e th e le v e lw e w o u ld e x p e c t to s e e b y c h a n c e , d o e s th a t m e a n th a t a te rr o ri s t a tt a c k is im m in e n t o r s ti ll m a n y m o n th s a w a y A m o re u s e r- fr ie n d ly v e rs io n o f T -P a tt e rn A n a ly s e s . T h e o u tc o m e s a re m u lt ip le w a v e s . M o re u s e fu lf o r m u lt ip le c a s e s (e .g . lif e h is to ry a n a ly s e s ) K e a tl e y a n d C la rk e (2 0 1 8 ) T e m p o ra ln e tw o rk a n a ly s is (S o c ia l) n e tw o rk a n a ly s is o u tl in e s th e re la ti o n s h ip b e tw e e n in d iv id u a ls , fo r in s ta n c e w h o g a n g s in te ra c t. F ro m th e s e n e tw o rk s , h ie ra rc h ie s o f c o n tr o l o r p o w e r c a n b e s e e n , in fl u e n c e c a n b e n o te d . T h is is e x tr e m e ly im p o rt a n t fo r in v e s ti g a ti o n s ; h o w e v e r, re c e n t a d d it io n s h a v e a ls o b e g u n to m a p h o w th e s e n e tw o rk s g ro w o r c h a n g e o v e r ti m e . T h e te m p o ra ln e tw o rk a n a ly s e s c a n a ls o b e u s e d to s h o w h o w c o -r e la te d b e h a v io u rs a t th e s c e n e o f a c ri m e c h a n g e o v e r ti m e (e .g . if g u n s a n d g a g s a re u s e d in e a rl y c ri m e s , d o e s th is c h a n g e to k n iv e s a n d ta p e la te r o n , o r is th e n e tw o rk m o re in tr ic a te ly lin k e d ) T h e b a s is o f th is h a s b e e n u s e d to s h o w th e re la ti o n s b e tw e e n p e o p le in c a s e s . C o ld C a s e F ile s a re fi lle d w it h n a m e s (s u s p e c ts , w it n e s s e s , re la ti v e s , ti p -o ff s , e tc .) . T h e re a re ty p ic a lly m o re n a m e s th a n d e te c ti v e s c a n k e e p tr a c k o f, s o p ro v id in g a n a n a ly s is o f th o s e n a m e s a n d lin k s to th e c a s e a n d e a c h o th e r p ro v id e s a h e lp fu l o v e rv ie w . G ill e t a l. (2 0 1 4 ), K e m p e e t a l. (2 0 0 3 ), K re b s (2 0 0 2 ) (c o n ti n u e d ) PAGE 52j JOURNAL OF CRIMINAL PSYCHOLOGYjVOL. 10 NO. 2 2020 T a b le I N a m e o f m e th o d D e s c ri p ti o n A p p lic a ti o n /E x a m p le R e fe re n c e s /A u th o rs a s s o c ia te d M a tr ix fo re c a s ti n g -B S A T h is c o m b in e d a p p ro a c h o f m a tr ix fo re c a s ti n g a n d B S A h a s b e e n u s e d o n c o ld c a s e s to p ro v id e a s u m m a ry o v e rv ie w o f th e c a s e p ro g re s s io n . In p a rt ic u la r, th e m a tr ix fo re c a s ti n g o u tl in e s d e te c ti v e s ’ ju d g e m e n ts a n d in v e s ti g a ti v e a p p ro a c h e s , w h ic h a re m a d e a b o u t b e h a v io u rs a n d e v e n ts a c ro s s th e ti m e lin e , o u tl in e d in B S A . T h e c o m b in a ti o n o f th e s e m e th o d s a llo w s a s tr u c tu re d ti m e lin e o f in v e s ti g a ti v e le a d s to … Matrix Forecasting and Behaviour Sequence Analysis: Part of the Timeline Toolkit for Criminal Investigation D. A. Keatley1,2 & D. D. Clarke1,3 # Society for Police and Criminal Psychology 2020 Abstract Solving serious crimes such as sexual assault, rape, and murder takes a considerable amount of investigation time. Despite efforts, many crimes may be unsolved, and go ‘cold’. These cases are typically extensive and reviewing the material can be prohibitively time consuming. The current manuscript proposes the combination of two methods, or ‘tools’, for timeline analyses: Matrix Forecasting and Behaviour Sequence Analysis (BSA). Matrix Forecasting provides a clear and comprehensive approach to outlining predictions investigators make, the rationale underlying these predictions, the accuracy, and the evidence. Matrix Forecasting also outlines areas for future investigation, for example, if new technology becomes available or new test results are returned. The BSA provides a statistical, visual pathway map that outlines the proposed or proven steps in a crime. The combination of these methods provides a new approach to mapping criminal investigations and has been effectively used in several real-world cold case reviews. To illustrate the benefits of this combined approach, a real-world example, the Jeffrey MacDonald, aka Green Beret Killer case, will be analysed using Matrix Forecasting and BSA to show the benefits of the method in terms of providing a quick-guide for future review and solvability factors. Keywords Matrix forecasting . Behaviour sequence analysis . Cold case . Criminal investigation A person is murdered. The investigation into this most serious of crimes is intense and dedicated. To begin, a number of criminological and forensic approaches are taken. Suspect lists are developed and interviews begin in earnest. Not for lack of person-power, time, or effort, the investigation loses momentum in terms of fresh leads and new hopes for solv- ability. Eventually, the case is labelled ‘cold’ and relegated to the area of police investigation that typically slips from most people’s collective conscience—most, except the families in- volved and Detectives still working tirelessly to solve it. It is at this stage that the likelihood of solving the case reduces rap- idly. Resources are allocated to other cases, and potential for new leads reduces as time moves forward. Every few years, with the changing of Detectives, or from external pressures, new reviews of cold cases may be undertaken. One of the difficulties with each new review is effective time manage- ment. Many Detectives prefer to use a grounded or bottom-up approach, starting at the beginning and working forwards through the case for themselves. This provides the opportunity to re-analyse and examine every piece of evidence; however, in cases spanning multiple decades, it can prove prohibitively time consuming—in the case presented here, it would include the reading of tens of thousands of pages of documents. It can also lead to Detectives focusing on early suspect lists only to later realise that the suspect was cleared. Clearly, a better method or toolkit is needed to help solve these cases, and that is what is outlined here. To expedite the review process, many Detectives prefer to give a summary, an ‘Executive Report’, at the beginning of their case files. This report outlines the main progression of the case and serves as a reminder for the Detective, who may have to work other cases for a prolonged period, as well as offering new Detectives or outside assistance a quick over- view of the case. While a helpful resource, these reports can suffer from various biases or heuristic reasoning (Nisbett and Ross 1980; Sniezek and Henry 1989), which may unintention- ally misguide future investigation attempts. These reports also do not always outline the full extent of the investigation in * D. A. Keatley [email protected] 1 Researchers in Behavior Sequence Analysis (ReBSA), Nottingham, UK 2 School of Law, Murdoch University, Perth 6150, Australia 3 School of Psychology, University of Nottingham, NG72RD, Nottingham, UK Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-020-09367-1 http://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1007/s11896-020-09367-1&domain=pdf http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6601-1939 mailto:[email protected] terms of all the avenues explored and all the potential possi- bilities for further investigation. Indeed several authors have highlighted the risks of biases in criminal investigation cases (Chapman et al. 2019; Roach 2019). The difficulty is that many detectives may remain sceptical of the applied validity of academic research, preferring to rely on their experience or ‘gut instinct’ as a means of progressing in a case, such confir- mation bias is particularly problematic in cold cases, wherein later investigators may be more likely to agree with and sup- port prior investigators’ decisions and conclusions rather than derive new ones (Roach 2019). Police investigations are open to cognitive biases, such as heuristics (Chapman et al. 2019, Goldsmith 2001). Many Cold Case Task Force and major police investigations use a paramilitary, rank-style structure (Chapman et al. 2019), in which final decision making comes down to a Senior Investigating Officer (in the UK). In Task Forces in USA, Detectives may be the sole investigating officer, thus making all of their own decisions, or take direction from their Chiefs. This structure of investigations means decision making plays a large role and therefore biases in decision making can affect outcomes of cases. Many officers adopt a blue ‘curtain of silence’ (Chapman et al. 2019) meaning that awareness of improprieties are often left hidden or undiscovered until re- view (Goldsmith 2001). Clearly, scientific labs and studies are not free from biases either; however, researchers are often more aware of these biases and the move towards preregistered reporting shows a conscious effort to improve the scientific practice more generally. A method that makes police more aware of these biases in their investigation pro- cess is more likely to lead to better, more well-informed deci- sion making (Chapman et al. 2019). The Matrix Forecast outlined in the current paper has a column asking investigators to list biases that may affect their decisions and thinking, which can then be independently reviewed if needed. Traditional academic approaches to Forensic Psychology and Criminology typically take a statistical approach (using regression analyses for example) or qualitative means (e.g. thematic or interpretative phenomenological analysis). These methods are useful for understanding the effect of individual risk factors on ‘predicting’ outcome behaviours, as is the case with regression model approaches. They may also provide key insight into the themes or intra-personal views of victims and criminals, as is the case with qualitative methods. However, these methods typically lack ability to account for complex, temporal chains of behaviours that evolve over time. Regression models, for example, can take multiple predictor variables (e.g. age, gender, personality, motivation) to predict an outcome (e.g. crime); however, regression analysis reduces complex outcomes to a single behaviour, omitting whether other behaviours and events affect the outcome. More com- plex statistical models exist (such as hierarchical modelling etc.); however, these methods quickly become unintelligible to police investigation, and still cannot easily be used to cal- culate longitudinal complex dynamics (Keatley 2018). Qualitative methods, in contrast, allow for in-depth under- standing of behaviours, but are harder or impossible to quan- tify in a meaningful way, and often end in reports that are almost as long as the base material in the investigation. What is required is a method that allows a comprehensive executive summary of the main findings in the case, as well as which pathways have been explored, and which remain open to future investigation (perhaps in the advent of new technol- ogy or evidence being found), and finally, a method that forces investigators to confront and explicitly label their potential for biases. The focus of the current paper is to outline a novel approach currently being used on several current and cold case investigations. The approach merges two existing methods: Matrix Forecasting (Clarke 1992, 2004) and Behaviour Sequence Analysis (Keatley 2018) to provide investigators with a new approach for their cases. While there is a growing body of research on BSA, there is much less recent research on the type of matrix forecasting, Seven-Column Forecasting, presented in this paper. Each method will be outlined and then a real-world case will be presented to show how the combined approaches of forecasting and sequencing can be used in on- going police investigations. This is the first article, to the au- thors’ knowledge to tentatively combine these methods, and is presented as a novel area for research with the aim of being qualified and developed by researchers in the area, alongside police investigations as well as on cold cases available for general research practice (such as the one used as an example in this paper). Matrix Forecasting The ability to accurately predict or forecast future events is clearly beneficial in a wide range of disciplines and applied fields. Many researchers have developed multiple methods for improving human judgements and forecasting accuracy (Makridakis 1994); however, most humans and computer programmes remain relatively inaccurate at predicting future events (Clarke 1992; Makridakis and Hibon 2000). A large reason for the inaccuracies of human judgement is an individ- ual’s inability to correctly assess their own biases and adjust further judgements based on that (self-) awareness or group biases (Budowle et al. 2009; Cooper and Meterko 2019; Sniezek 1992; Sniezek and Henry 1989). This is typically further complicated by complexity of measuring and mapping temporal, dynamic behaviours (Keatley 2018). Typically, when a forecast is made by a practitioner or researcher, the accuracy is recorded, and the next prediction may be about another behaviour or event entirely. Research using regression models suffer this type of issue. To improve this area, a J Police Crim Psych method was developed to help improve human judgement and forecasting accuracy: Matrix Forecasting (MF; Clarke 2004). Quantitative forecasting methods use increasingly complex computer algorithms and artificial intelligence operations to predict future events (Geurts, Box, and Jenkins 1977; Seymour, Brockwell, and Davis 1997). However, such methods typically require larger datasets structured in a way that is not practical or possible in criminal (cold) case investi- gations. Also, many police officers are sceptical of using com- puter programmes or ‘black box’ approaches to solving crime, which they do not fully understand or feel able to defend if called upon in court. Therefore, a method that helps improve officers’ forecasting accuracy and ability to move forward and apply the same principles in similar crimes is practical and clearly beneficial. Many individuals, guided by television rep- resentations of investigations, may believe that all police have access to large databases of data, and while it is true that police can access such databases, the reality is that they are often facing a large backlog of requests and cold cases are seldom prioritised. Therefore, while these databases may prove useful for some investigations, for older cold cases, they are either not readily accessible or the lack of information in the cold case means that the database is not useful. The method proposed here is a qualitative approach that has similar logic to that of machine learning, more specifically ‘genetic algorithms’ (Forsyth 1989). These genetic algorithms are rule-inducing programmes that borrow Darwinian evolu- tion principles to constantly improve the accuracy of predic- tions. Rules are created and evaluated, and those that do not lead to improved forecasting are abandoned, while the better ones are retained. Rules can then be developed (‘bred’ or ‘mutated’ in evolutionary terms) to offer further rules for evo- lutionary testing. Matrix Forecasting uses the same principle in refining and improving judgement forecasts. Furthermore, Matrix Forecasting does not require expensive programmes or machines and can be run in cold case task forces to assist with investigations. It may be that after completing the Matrix Forecast, new potential leads are highlighted, which detectives can then forward to machine databases, rather than attempting to scan old hand-written or typed pages and then forward these in some meaningful format. Matrix forecasting (MF; Clarke 1992) is designed for use with a group of experts, such as Cold Case Detectives. Experts consider a structured series of events and progress step-by- step to forecast future behaviours or events in the timeline. Effectively, they forecast what happened next. The first col- umn in Matrix Forecasting is the first step in the process, in which an individual makes an ad hoc prediction of the next event. Then, the expert is asked to provide a rationale for why they made this prediction, this is important in order to under- stand the possible inferences or biases being made (perhaps the detective is drawing from similar past cases etc.). Step 3 is to provide a summary of the real next event as it becomes known. Following this, a quantitative estimate or accuracy in Step 4 is provided for the match or mismatch between steps 1 and 3 (i.e. how accurate was the ad hoc prediction compared with reality). Step 5 requires a more qualitative summary of the nature of the discrepancy (was it entirely inaccurate or wrong-by-degrees). Following this, experts are asked to con- sider what changes would be required to their predictive strat- egy (steps 1 and 2) in order to prevent such errors (shown in step 5) from occurring again. Finally, step 7 is a cumulative list of predictive guidelines based on step 6 that should be taken forward for future forecasts. These columns can be reduced or elaborated as seen fit by the investigators. While the MF approach has proved useful for improving judgements of future events, it has needed to be developed to make it more applied for cold cases. In terms of cold cases, Detectives are more interested in agreement between investiga- tors, routes for further investigation, and possible leads. These have been taken into account in the approach presented in this paper (see Fig. 1). While the MF provides an in-depth, infor- mative approach to the decision-making process and offers greater insight for future investigation, it leads to complex ma- trices being formed that may be harder to follow for new de- tectives. The MF approach may also lose or obfuscate some of the timeline that is important to understand in criminal investi- gations. A method is required, therefore, that outlines clearly and succinctly the temporal progression of behaviours. Such a method exists and has been widely used in Forensic and Criminological areas: Behaviour Sequence Analysis (Ivanouw 2007; Keatley 2018; Keatley, Barsky, and Clarke 2017). Behaviour Sequence Analysis Understanding the temporal dynamics of a crime has obvious benefits for investigations. Detectives can piece together the likely progression of events and begin to form an overview of the crime commission. This temporal outline allows detectives to consider discrepancies between crime scenes so that they may consider whether the current crime is unique and distinct, or forms part of a series (Keatley and Clarke 2019). One leading method for statistically analysing and providing flow diagrams of behavioural chains is Behaviour Sequence Analysis (BSA; Keatley 2018). Temporal Analysis has been applied across a wide range of crimes, including burglary and theft (Homel, Macintyre, and Wortley 2014); violence (Taylor, Keatley, and Clarke 2017); sexual assault and rape (Ellis, Clarke, and Keatley 2017; Fossi, Clarke, and Lawrence 2005); and serial homicide (Keatley, Golightly, Shephard, Yaksic, and Reid 2018). The output of BSA is a flow diagram (called a State Transition Diagram) that shows how one be- haviour follows another, creating lengthier sequences of steps in a crime. Although underpinned by statistics, diagrams can be interpreted without any further statistical understanding. J Police Crim Psych The method of BSA requires three stages. First, a crime episode is parsed into separate, distinct behaviours. These behaviours are then categorised so that similar types of be- haviours across different crime scenes can be compared. For example, if we see ‘stabbed’ in crime 1, and ‘knife penetra- tion’ in crime 2, we may consider these Behaviour type ‘A’ (although we should check with Detectives, autopsy and Medical Examiners, if possible, to ensure that the two types of injuries are commensurate). This categorisation process is repeated across the entire episode, or multiple episodes, until every behaviour has been given an agreed category label.1 This typically produces chains of code, which stand for be- haviours: A➔B➔C➔D…n (where each letter refers to a be- haviour type category until the crime episode ends, n). The final stage of BSA is the analysis, wherein the transitions between behaviour pairs are analysed. Therefore, whereas the crime episode gives a chain ‘A➔B➔C➔D’, the lag-one sequence analysis focuses on transitions between pairs of be- haviours (A➔B, B➔C, C➔D etc.). More complicated forms of BSA exist allowing for longer chains to be analysed (e.g. [AB]➔C, [BC]➔D); however, there are various reasons why these higher-order BSA approaches are not favourable in re- search or application (See Keatley 2018 for a review). A strength of the BSA approach is that it shows the chain of behaviours as they fit together across a crime, and/or multiple crimes. This allows investigators to begin to see patterns emerg- ing, and most recently, researchers have developed a method for linking crimes using BSA, known as Behaviour Fingerprinting (Keatley and Clarke, 2019), as well as using BSA to predict geographic movements, known as Behaviour Tracking (Keatley et al., 2018). Both Behaviour Fingerprinting and Tracking methods are useful alongside the Matrix Forecasting approach. Clearly, BSA works best with multiple cases or for collating multiple investigators’ views, in which common path- ways can be detected and analysed. But, cold cases are typically single-homicides, without others in a series to link to. Furthermore, BSA works best when all behaviours in a se- quence are known and can be mapped clearly, which is obviously not the case in many cold cases, where missing or unknown information is typically a cause of the case going cold. Therefore, BSA needs to be developed to better handle single cases, with missing segments of the episode, which is where predictions of future behaviours in the sequence are crit- ical. Combining matrix forecasting with BSA is a parsimoni- ous, effective means of moving both methods forward for investigations. Combining the Methods Combining MF with BSA has proved useful in a number of real-world cold cases the authors are currently actively in- volved in; however, as on-going cases, these are currently not open to publication. To show the benefits of a timeline toolkit approach combining MF and BSA, an open-access case will first be outlined, and then analysed using the novel approach. The Jeffrey Macdonald ‘Green Beret Killer’ case will be used to show how MF and BSA could have been used to assist with investigation process and follow-up case re- views.2 A full portrayal of the case spans around 10,000 pages of court and investigative documents, and 3 books (totaling around 2000 pages)—clearly beyond the scope of the present article. Therefore, a brief summary of the case as it first be- came known to investigators responding to the scene is given below. For ease of comprehension, the details of the case as they became known have been re-written into a clearer se- quence (obviously, in real cases some parts are not so imme- diately apparent). Dispatchers at Fort Bragg receive an emergency call at 0342, on February 17th, 1970. Jeffrey Macdonald re- ports a “stabbing”. First responders arrive on scene and are confronted by the bodies of Colette (wife), Kristen (Daughter), and Kimberly (Daughter), all are found dead in their bedrooms. Jeffrey was located next 1 Best practice is to seek agreement between multiple coders and experts involved in the case. 2 We appreciate that the case is now legally ‘solved’ and no longer cold; however, it took 9 years before a conviction was made, and so for the purposes of this paper it stands as a useful example. 1. Prediction 2. Rationale 3. Degree of certainty 4. number of other routes 5. Discrepancy between routes 6. Number of investigative leads 7. Actual outcome if known (and continue with 7 column if so) Awoken by intruders Suspect statement 75 (only available evidence at present) N=3 1 Wholly different suspects Forensic test for intruders For future follow- up Wakes up (no intruders) High percentage of familicide cases 25 (based solely on experience /bias) N=1 1 Note. N = number of investigators who agree on this transition being the most likely next step. Fig. 1 Matrix Forecast for start node. N = number of investigators who agree on this transition being the most likely next step J Police Crim Psych to his wife, alive but bleeding, on the floor of their bed- room. Colette and the daughters had all been viciously attacked (blunt force trauma and multiple stab wounds3). Jeffrey was bleeding from the abdomen area, and immediately taken to hospital. When first-responders arrived, Jeffrey claimed (and still does) that he had fallen asleep in the living room, to be awoken to the sounds of his wife, Colette screaming. Stood over him, as he awoke, were 4 intruders (3 men, and a woman). He described the woman as wearing a floppy white hat and a blonde wig, and said she was holding a flickering light (like a candle) and chanting “Acid is groovy, kill the pigs”. The 3 men then attacked Jeffrey with a club and he felt something sharp in his chest/abdomen. He passed out and when he awoke he checked on the state of his family – to find them all dead. He then phoned the base CID to raise help. The CID, after investigation, held a different view – that Jeffrey himself, alone had viciously attacked and mur- dered his wife and children, and then staged the scene and his own injuries to fit his narrative. This was the information given to investigators first arriv- ing at the scene and interviewing Jeffrey MacDonald at the hospital. Given the open-access of Fort Bragg, closing down the base was not quickly and effectively possible. Of impor- tance, a female matching the description that Jeffrey had given was seen in the area by a responding officer. The aim here is not to get into the prolonged legal aspects of the case, which have spanned multiple decades. Instead, the next step is to show how a combination of forecasting and BSA could have been used in the investigative process. In the case of Jeffrey MacDonald, the process would begin by establishing each Detectives perceived timeline of events. This is best done in isolation, so that each Detectives timeline is not biased or influenced by others. The coding process is then very similar to standard BSA. Timelines are first parsed into discrete behaviours and events, then categorised such that all Detectives’ accounts can be cross-examined. Finally, anal- yses can be conducted on the sequences to show behavioural chains. For the current case, many Detectives may believe MacDonald and put his being knocked unconscious very soon after been awoken. Others, however, may be suspicious of the events as told by MacDonald, and consider alternative time- lines entirely, for example: Jeffrey is on sofa ➔ Jeffrey goes to his bedroom ➔ Jeffrey assaults Colette. The state transition diagrams provide a clear and informa- tive way of showing the most likely timelines, as perceived by detectives. These timelines could be assessed for consistency (Abbott and Hrycak 1990; Rosenbaum 1989) or Behavioural Fingerprints (Keatley and Clarke 2019), which is a more so- phisticated method of analysing similarity between sequential timelines. The major benefit of combining BSA with MF, however, is to take the state transition diagram a step further and break-down the decision-making process for each transi- tion in the chain. This clarifies reasoning and biases, and high- lights opportunities for future investigation. This process al- lows clear mapping of the investigative process for future investigators if the case goes cold. In the current case, the starting point of the sequence can be put into the matrix to clarify why different starting positions have occurred (see Fig. 2). Clearly, there are two proposed starting points to this se- quence of events, depending on whether we believe Jeffrey’s account or not. Each has a very different ramification in terms of proposed suspect(s). While the state transition diagram pro- vides a very quick overview of the possible pathways (see Keatley 2018 for overview), the matrix provides more in- depth detail of how each node and transition were decided. Future investigations may look to this to decide whether new tests have become available (i.e. M-VAC), or whether all leads have been investigated. Use of dates in column 7 allows in- vestigators to keep a track of when testing has been conducted. Again, the columns can be developed to suit the investigators needs; but over several cases, the 7 presented here provide the most parsimonious starting point for building a Matrix Forecasting approach, and fits most closely with published examples (Clarke 1992). These columns for further testing are what may also prompt Detectives to begin a targeted vet- ting of computer databases to answer specific questions, thus expediting the process. As is typical in the early stages of investigations, multiple Detectives will have competing and divergent views, a pro- cess that is helpful for the investigation, but can lead to con- fusion of facts and uncertainty of leads. Combining MF with BSA offers a way of bringing-together multiple views and theories and documenting them in a way that current and future investigators (if the case goes cold) can review and update accordingly, if new technology, testing, or testimony becomes known. Figure 2 outlines how matrix forecasting and BSA can be combined to show the possible chains of behav- iours, underlying rationales for pathways, and areas for future investigation. Behaviour Tracking Another timeline tool that is useful for investigations and can be used as part of the proposed approach is Behaviour Tracking (Keatley et al., 2019), which can be used to show pathways of movements around the home or other geo-spatial areas. These perceived geo-temporal movements can then be compared with known blood stains and forensic evidence in attempts to sup- port or refute them. One of the key areas of initial investigation in the MacDonald case was the blood stains around the prop- erty. Owing to the fact that each member of the MacDonald J Police Crim Psych family had a different blood type (Colette: Type A; Jeffrey: Type B; Kimberly: Type AB; Kristen: Type O), the prosecution soon drew a proposed route that Jeffrey walked and the order in which he killed his family (the arrows in Fig. 3). Figure 3 pro- vides a simplified version of the prosecution’s proposed se- quence of movements. In active investigations or cold cases, the Behaviour Tracking approach could be used to show mul- tiple different possible pathways (derived from investigators’ proposed sequence of movements, and supported by evidence where possible). Behaviour Tracking can show transitions agreed by the majority of investigators (shown as line thick- ness); it can also be a useful pictorial display of different spatio- temporal movements, which can focus testing of evidence to remove or support particular routes. The Combined Approach and Solvability In an ideal world, all crimes would be given the maximum amount of time needed to investigate and solve; however, Police Departments are typically overworked and under-staffed, so a system for prioritizing solvability of cases is needed. A further benefit of the current combined approach is to use it as a method of solvability scaling. Within Cold Case investigation teams, a major hurdle before investigating a case is knowing which cases to prioritise. It is not always clear or easy to know which cases are more likely to be solved, without full and exten- sive reviews. Currently, a number of Law Enforcement Organisations around the world have developed their own metric system for rating solvability of cases (typically relating to avail- ability of evidence, witnesses, and time-since-crime). The new approach outlined here could be used to show how many possi- ble leads remain in a case, in a quick and clear way. The sequence chains and matrices … Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=udbh20 Deviant Behavior ISSN: 0163-9625 (Print) 1521-0456 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/udbh20 Understanding School Shootings with Crime Script Analysis David A. Keatley, Sian Mcgurk & Clare S. Allely To cite this article: David A. Keatley, Sian Mcgurk & Clare S. Allely (2019): Understanding School Shootings with Crime Script Analysis, Deviant Behavior, DOI: 10.1080/01639625.2019.1596543 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/01639625.2019.1596543 Published online: 29 Mar 2019. 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Allelyc aMurdoch University, Perth, Australia; bUniversity of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK; cUniversity of Salford, Manchester, UK ABSTRACT Mapping the antecedents of school shootings is an important step towards understanding and predicting when the tragedies occur. This study uses Crime Script Analysis (CSA) to map the variety of behaviors and precursors in sequence. An in-depth analysis of 16 school shooters in the United States of America was used to build a crime script. The results showed five key scenes through which school shooters progressed in the lead-up to their school shootings. The approach is the first to provide a temporal account of school shooters planning of their crimes and forms the foundation for future school shootings to be added to. This research also shows how a CSA approach can be used to generate crime prevention strategies for future school shootings. ARTICLE HISTORY Received 28 March 2018 Accepted 8 August 2018 It used to be the case that parents could send their children to school without fear for the children’s lives. Publicity surrounding recent events in America have raised awareness and concerns about the safety of children in high schools (Abouk and Adams 2013; Rocque 2012). While school shootings are not a new phenomenon, there remains uncertainty about the antecedents of these tragedies (Gerard et al. 2016; Meloy et al. 2001). Multiple risk factors have been identified in the literature, such as exclusion and isolation, bullying, and revenge motivations (Langman 2013; Leary et al. 2003). However, individual risk factors studied and presented alone do not provide a dynamic account of how individuals prepare for and execute their plans. There was a sudden growth in research on school shootings in the 1990s, following the events at Columbine High School, Thurston High School, and Westside Middle School, as well as others (Baird, Roellke, and Zeifman 2017). Despite an increased focus on research into school shootings there remains a lack of clear understanding about what causes these events, and how to predict them. Some general trends have been shown, relating to economic status, ethnicity, and interpersonal disputes (Wike and Fraser 2009). General school violence is likely to be committed by low-income, ethnic minorities in urban school environments (Wike and Fraser 2009); school shootings, however, are more likely to be committed by white, middle-class students (Baird, Roellke, and Zeifman 2017). While general trends may provide the basis of understanding social processes and indicators of future violence, they do not offer specific accounts of the temporal dynamics preceding a school shooting. Some of the most extensive and well-cited studies of school shootings include one which was conducted by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI; O’Toole 2000) and another conducted by the United States Secret Service and the United States Department of Education (Vossekuil et al. 2002). Borum et al. (2010) have highlighted that one of the things that makes these studies notable is that they both rejected efforts to develop a profile of the individual who perpetrates a school shooting. They also both discouraged the use of lists of warning signs or “checklists” as they are too simplistic. Instead, the focus should be shifted towards “threat assessment as a prevention strategy” (Borum et al. 2010). In the FBI study, a review was carried out of 14 cases of actual shootings and also four cases of planned shootings that were thwarted (O’Toole 2000). O’Toole identified 47 descriptors that CONTACT David A. Keatley [email protected] School of Law, Murdoch University, Perth 6150, Australia © 2019 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC DEVIANT BEHAVIOR https://doi.org/10.1080/01639625.2019.1596543 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1080/01639625.2019.1596543&domain=pdf&date_stamp=2019-03-29 were common across many shooters. Some of these common descriptors including 28 personality traits and behaviors, seven family dynamics, seven school dynamics, and five social dynamics. It was highlighted by O’Toole (2000) that not all the shooters had each of these features, but the identified dynamics were seen as constituting significant trends. Some of the common individual features included narcissism (which is consistent with a number of studies, e.g., Bondü and Scheithauer 2015), bigotry, alienation, poor anger management, a fascination with violence, low levels of self- esteem and a lack of empathy. The FBI study (O’Toole 2000) was based on a five-day conference, which was attended by 160 invited experts and professionals in law enforcement, education, and mental health. The conference also included school staff members who had experienced a school shooting first-hand. The 160 delegates collectively assessed 18 completed or thwarted school shooting cases. The FBI experts in criminal profiling argued that profiling was an inappropriate method for the prevention of school shootings. It was unequivocally agreed that there exists no single set of characteristics that could define a would-be school shooter with sufficient levels of specificity to make it of practical value. They argued that the development of a “checklist” of warning signs to identify a would-be school shooter can be short-sighted and potentially dangerous. It is possible that some students who have no intention of perpetrating such an attack (are non-violent individuals) would be labeled as potentially dangerous (O’Toole 2000). The FBI report recommended that an assessment should comprise four key domains including personality traits and behaviors, family dynamics, school dynamics, and social dynamics (Borum et al. 2010). There is no single cause that propels or drives an individual to commit a school shooting. School violence needs to be seen as the outcome of a wide range of causal processes (Henry 2009). In the study conducted by the United States Secret Service and United States Department of Education (Vossekuil et al. 2002), 37 incidents of school violence involving 41 students between 1974 to 2000 were examined. Findings indicated a variety of common features among the school shooters. The majority of the shooters were depressed, had feelings of persecution, had grievances against at least one of their targets and had an interest in violent entertainment. Interestingly, a history of drug abuse, prior violence or criminal behavior or animal cruelty were not found in the majority of the school shooters. There have also been some other well-cited studies investigating school shooters. Verlinden, Hersen, and Thomas (2000) carried out a review of risk factors among 10 school shooters. Similar to the O’Toole (2000) study, a number of areas were examined including individual, family, school/peers, and societal/ environmental factors were examined in the study. The factors which were identified as being most common were: a history of aggression, uncontrolled anger, depression and suicidal ideation, discipline problems and feeling rejected and bullied (“picked on”). Another study carried out by Meloy et al. (2001) reviewed 37 adolescent mass murderers. Eight of these 37 adolescent mass murderers were classified as “classroom avengers” and are therefore of specific interest here. Findings showed that the school shooters often were bullied but did not bully others. They were also found to be preoccupied with weapons and fantasy. Many also had a history of substance abuse. The majority were not depressed and had no history of antisocial behaviors. In another study, Leary et al. (2003) reviewed 15 school shootings and found a number of common features. The sample comprised of cases which were well-documented cases of school violence which occurred in the United States between January 1995 to March 2001. They started from 1995 because that was when school shootings started to receive national attention. Findings from the study showed that acute or chronic rejection (in the form of ostracism, bullying, and/or romantic rejection) was present in all but two of the incidents. It was also found that there was a tendency for the shooters to be characterized by one or more of three other risk factors, namely, an interest in firearms or bombs, a fascination with death or Satanism, or psychological problems involving depression, impulse control, or sadistic tendencies (Leary et al. 2003). The findings by Leary and colleagues are consistent with the hypothesis that social rejection is a contributory factor in the majority of school shooters. Specifically, 12 of the cases involved an ongoing pattern of teasing, bullying, or ostracism. Also, at least six of the school shooters had experienced a recent romantic rejection. No clear evidence of rejection was 2 D. A. KEATLEY ET AL. found in only two of the 15 school shooters (Leary et al. 2003). Such findings support earlier findings (e.g., Vossekuil et al. 2002). Vossekuil et al. (2002) found evidence for bullying, ostracism, and social rejection in over two-thirds of the school shooting cases they examined (Vossekuil et al. 2002). There are a variety of reasons which makes the study of school shooters difficult to study (Langman 2009). For instance, thankfully, the event is relatively rare so sample sizes are relatively small across studies. Also, the perpetrators very often commit suicide or are killed by police at the scene. This further limits researchers to a retrospective review of the perpetrators’ lives, and/or interviews with people who knew the perpetrators. Lastly, across studies investigating school shooters, there are varying definitions of what a school shooting or a rampage school shooting is. This results in somewhat different, but nevertheless overlapping, populations being investigated. Some samples studied by researchers include student-perpetrated firearms deaths which took place at school, while other samples studied by researchers include perpetrators of larger-scale attacks (Langman 2009). Newman (2004) and Newman and Fox (2009) define rampage school shootings as involving students who attend (or had formerly attended) the school where the shooting occurred; took place on a school-related “public stage” (i.e., in full view of other people); and involving multiple victims, at least some of whom were shot randomly or as a symbol (such as a principal who represents the school). Other victims may be targeted as a result of a grievance or perceived wrong (Langman 2009). The definition of school shooters outlined by Newman (2004) is the definition used in the present study. Clearly, the focus of research is being directed towards crime prevention through understanding the complex dynamics leading-up to school shootings. This is the key focus of the current study, too: to elucidate the complex pattern of behaviors and antecedent events that precede a school shooting. Understanding individual risk factors for school shooting provides an overview of key warning signs to be vigilant towards; however, mapping the temporal relationships between risk factors can provide an insight into the predictive pathways that lead towards crime (Keatley 2018). Recently, research in criminology has begun to focus on temporal methods, such as Behaviour Sequence Analysis (BSA, Keatley 2018; Keatley et al. 2018), Indicator Waves (Keatley and Clarke 2018), and Crime Script Analysis (Leclerc and Wortley 2014), which allow researchers to clearly map the life histories and antecedent events and behaviors that lead to a school shooting. The focus of temporal research is not to undermine the important research into risk factors; but, to take a step further and ask not only what the risk factors are; but, whether the order they occur in matter. From here, important issues can be highlighted, such as key “hot spots” or “critical points” (Keatley 2018), wherein inter- ventions are most effective. Clearly, school shootings are underpinned by a wide variety of behaviors or “risk factors”, and no single behavior is reliably predictive of later events. However, temporal analyses allow researchers to understand whether the progression of several behaviors is more likely to lead to a school shooting than other sequences. However, a limitation of BSA research is that it requires complete, detailed datasets, which are often hard to gather comprehensively in real-world events. Information regarding every step and detail of school shootings is either vague, missing, or classified. This poses a problem for traditional BSA approaches, as misleading chains may occur (if events or behaviors are systematically missing across samples). There are, however, other temporal methods that provide an overview of the general trends and chains in behavior, while requiring less detailed data, such as Crime Script Analysis (CSA; Cornish 1994; Ekblom and Gill 2016). Crime script analysis (CSA; Cornish 1994; Ekblom and Gill 2016) was developed from general schemata and scripts in Cognitive Psychology (Schank and Abelson 2013); though, it can also be conceptualized in terms of computer scripts in programming. In the same way that actors in a play follow a theatrical script, with acts and scenes, researchers have suggested that criminals follow a similar script in the commission of their crime (Leclerc, Smallbone, and Wortley 2013; Leclerc and Wortley 2014). In a similar psychological process as individuals entering a restaurant and knowing the general progression of events, as criminals act out their crimes they follow scripts that direct or guide their behavior. Nisbett and Ross (1980) outline scripts as being temporal sequences that extend DEVIANT BEHAVIOR 3 across time and infer some causal relationships between scenes, in that earlier behaviors or events precede or enable later events. Crime Script Analysis is important in being able to understand the sequential flow of behaviors and actions, allowing deeper understanding and insight into the process of crime. This provides investigators with a more detailed account of how crimes unfold over time, rather than “snapshot” approaches, which portray crime as a single event in space and time. However, a more important output of CSA is in terms of crime prevention strategies. Recent research has focused on crimes such as burglary (Homel, Macintyre, and Wortley 2014) and child sexual assault (Leclerc, Smallbone, and Wortley 2013) through a CSA lens, not only to understand the process of the crimes; but, to highlight key stages of the script in which intervention might have more effect. A similar approach has been taken with terrorist acts to highlight how interventions such as transportation might have been an effective deterrent (Meyer 2013). In terms of school shootings, purchasing or acquiring a weapon necessarily precedes the school shooting event. The CSA approach outlines what other behaviors and events are related to such key actions, and further analyses then allow researchers to provide intervention strategies. Current study The aim of the current paper is to provide a novel method for mapping and describing the temporal development of school shootings. Crime Script Analysis (CSA; Cornish 1994; Ekblom and Gill 2016) will be outlined and shown to be an effective method, which has not been previously applied to the area of school shootings. Crime Script Analysis (CSA) is a methodological approach that builds on the cognitive psychology approach of script analysis (Schank and Abelson 2013), using schemata (Cornish 1994). Script analysis essentially outlines the general trends of behavior, with the quintessential example being the restaurant script, in which people can operate in different restaurants successfully by following a generalized script of how to behave in such contexts. The script concept has been applied to crimes (Beauregard et al. 2007; Ekblom and Gill 2016; Hutchings and Holt 2015), showing that criminals follow a similar script and schemata process when planning and commissioning their crimes. The aim of the current study is to investigate the behavioral sequences of school shootings, using a crime script analysis approach. The general script will outline the preparation and planning stage behaviors, and how these lead to the commission of the act itself, which leads to the “exit” or final behaviors. A series of school shooting events will be used to define and clarify the scenes in the crime script analysis, and provide examples of the typical behaviors exhibited in each scene. This is the first paper, to the authors’ knowledge, to explicitly link crime script analysis to school shootings and provides an initial framework to understand the dynamics of school shootings, and a starting point for future cases to be added to. Methods Sample The sample consisted of 16 individual cases of school shootings in the United States of America (see Table 1). The majority of cases involved in a male shooter (n = 15); and the average age was 20.68 years (SD = 10.09, range = 11–55). An average of 11.88 (SD = 12.41, range = 2–45) people were killed in the school shootings. An average of 15.44 (SD = 14.14, range = 1–58) people were injured in the school shootings. Guns were the most used weapon; however, bombs or dynamite were also used in several cases. There were almost equal numbers of suicides (n = 6) as arrests (n = 7) in the sample. When identifying individuals for the sample a variety of sources were consulted, including databases for school shootings (e.g., schoolshooters.info; PACER.), news reports, court reports, police and government reports, and general media accounts. In cases where data were not sourced from official 4 D. A. KEATLEY ET AL. Ta b le 1. D es cr ip ti ve in fo rm at io n of sc h oo l sh oo te rs . N am e A g e D at e G en d er Lo ca ti on Ty p e/ n am e of sc h oo l N um b er ki lle d N um b er in ju re d W ea p on s us ed A rr es te d / Ki lle d / su ic id e A n d re w Ke h oe 55 1s t Fe b 18 72 M M ic h ig an (U .S .) Ba th C on so lid at ed sc h oo l 45 58 Bo m b s & d yn am it e Su ic id e C h ar le s W h it m an 25 1s t A ug 19 66 M A us ti n (U .S .) U n iv er si ty of Te xa s 14 31 G un s Ki lle d b y p ol ic e Br en d a Sp en ce r 16 29 th Ja n 19 79 F C al ifo rn ia (U .S .) G ro ve r C le ve la n d El em en ta ry sc h oo l 2 9 G un A rr es te d Er ic C h ri st op h er H ou st on 20 1s t M ay 19 92 M C al ifo rn ia (U .S .) Li n d h ur st H ig h sc h oo l 4 9 G un s A rr es te d Lu ke W oo d h am 16 1s t O ct 19 97 M M is si ss ip p i (U .S .) Pe ar l H ig h sc h oo l 3 7 G un s & kn iv es A rr es te d M ic h ae l C ar n ea l 14 1s t D ec 19 97 M Ke n tu ck y (U .S .) H ea th H ig h sc h oo l 3 5 G un s A rr es te d A n d re w G ol d en 11 24 th M ar ch 19 98 M A rk an sa s (U .S .) W es ts id e M id d le sc h oo l 5 10 G un s A rr es te d (la te r re le as ed ) M it ch el l Sc ot t Jo h n so n 13 24 th M ar ch 19 98 M A rk an sa s (U .S .) W es ts id e M id d le sc h oo l 5 10 G un s A rr es te d Ki p la n d Ph ill ip Ki n ke l 15 30 th A ug 19 98 M O re g on (U .S .) Th ur st on H ig h sc h oo l 4 26 G un s A rr es te d D yl an Kl eb ol d 17 20 th A p ri l 19 99 M C ol or ad o (U .S .) C ol um b in e H ig h sc h oo l 13 20 G un s & p ip e b om b s Su ic id e Er ic H ar ri s 18 20 th A p ri l 19 99 M C ol or ad o (U .S .) C ol um b in e H ig h sc h oo l 13 20 G un s & p ip e b om b s Su ic id e D av id A tt ia s 20 23 rd Fe b 20 01 M C al ifo rn ia (U .S .) U n iv er si ty of C al ifo rn ia , Sa n ta Ba rb ar a ca m p us 4 1 C ar A rr es te d Se un g H ui C h o 23 16 th A p ri l 20 07 M V ir g in ia (U .S .) V ir g in ia Te ch U n iv er si ty 32 18 G un s Su ic id e A d am La n za 20 14 th D ec 20 12 M C on n ec ti cu t (U .S .) Sa n d y H oo k El em en ta ry sc h oo l 27 2 G un s Su ic id e El lio t Ro d g er 22 23 rd M ay 20 14 M C al ifo rn ia (U .S .) U n iv er si ty of C al ifo rn ia , Sa n ta Ba rb ar a ca m p us 6 14 Kn iv es & h an d g un Su ic id e C h ri st op h er H ar p er M er ce r 26 1s t O ct 20 15 M O re g on (U .S .) U m p q ua C om m un it y co lle g e 10 7 G un s Su ic id e Ev id en ce of m en ta l h ea lt h is su es /b ra in in ju ry / n eu ro d ev el -o p m en ta l d is or d er s H is to ry of b ul ly in g in ch ild h oo d Pa re n ts d iv or ce d / se p ar at ed in ch ild h oo d Ex p el le d fr om sc h oo l A ca d em ic at ta in m en t d et er io ra ti on Pr ev io us cr im in al h is to ry A cc es s to w ea p on s (o w n ed b y sh oo te r/ fa m ily ) & w ea p on p ro fic ie n cy Th re at s/ ve rb al is in g vi ol en t th ou g h ts to ot h er s, in w ri ti n g et c U N U N U N U N U N N Y Y Y U N N D is ch ar g e fr om m ili ta ry Y N Y Y Y U N Y N Y Y Y Y U N U N N – d ro p p ed ou t N N U N Y Y Y Y N N N N U N Y Y N N N N N Y N N N N U N U N Y U N U N N Y U N U N Y N Y Y U N N N U N Y Y Y N Y N N N Y N Y Y Y N N N Y N Y Y N N N U N U N Y U N Y Y N N U N N N Y Y N Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y N U N N N Y Y Y Y Y – d is ch ar g ed fr om ar m y U N N Y Y N ot e. Y = ye s (p re se n t) ; N = n o (n on e/ ab se n t) ; U N = un kn ow n ; sc h oo l sh oo te rs ar e lis te d in d iv id ua lly , ev en if th ey w or ke d in p ai rs (e .g ., Kl eb ol d & H ar ri s; G ol d en & Jo h n so n ). DEVIANT BEHAVIOR 5 Law Enforcement sources, facts were cross-referenced between independent sources to ensure validity. While this does not guarantee accuracy, it is an approved method in applied research (Keatley 2018). Inclusion criteria were that the school shooting was documented in enough detail to allow clear and comprehensive analyses. Inclusion criteria in the current study were that: the offense happened in a “public location” – here operationalized as the school property; there were multiple victims (both killed and injured); multiple victims targeted and untargeted; the offender had current or former links with the school. A final inclusion criterion was method-specific and considered the depth and quality of information available. For CSA to provide a systematic, step-by-step account of developing behaviors, reports of the school shooting had to provide enough detail to satisfy this criterion. This was important as the current research forms the foundation framework for future research; therefore, complete accounts allowed for more informed crime script analysis. Future cases with less data may be included as long as the base framework is well informed. This allows for consistent comparative analyses between cases. Script development Crime scripts can be built from a variety of data, and there are no clear guidelines on the type of data that can be used (Borrion 2013); indeed, the inclusion of multiple sources and types of data is a strength of the crime script approach. There have been several revisions to the crime script approach (Ekblom and Gill 2016); therefore, the current study will apply the most recent advance- ments in crime script developments, to provide clear and concise scripts that break down long chains of behaviors into five clear scenes or stages: preparation; pre-condition; instrumental actualization; doing; and exit. The current study will follow Leclerc, Wortley, and Smallbone’s (2011) recommen- dations, and include a visualization approach to outline the crime script and details. The current study visualizes the data in the form of a Crime Script table (see Table 2). The process of developing a crime script in the current study followed previously approved protocols in the literature (Chiu 2015). First, cases were found with in-depth, sequential information (rather than simply stating, “suspect had a gun”, the information needed to be grounded in some form of timeline so that we could understand when they obtained the gun). Once multiple cases of school shooter timelines had been sourced, a process of familiarization took place, wherein research- ers read through each timeline and began mapping the sequential flow of scenes within each case, using CSA scenes as a building block. For each case, behaviors were analyzed and discussed in terms of which scene they belonged to. This process was iterated for each new case, and scenes were developed to represent the data, rather than the data being forced to fit into scenes, which is why the scene codes for the current study follow a similar structure as previous research; but, have different scene names. Once researchers agreed that all behaviors were included in the crime script, and the scenes within the crime script were sequential but distinct, the CSA was finalized. Coding procedure Cornish (1994) suggested that a standardized method for promoting richer, more comparable crime scripts is to use a universal script. The universal script allows researchers to develop and organize crime scripts in a systematic way that provides a cohesive framework and allows for future research to easily build on. The universal script also outlines procedural aspects and requirements of the planning and commissioning of a crime, at a more generalized, global level. More specific scenes can then be developed for particular subtypes of related crimes (e.g., “school shootings” → Schools/ Colleges/Universities). As the present research is the first of its kind, a global, universal script was developed. The data in the current study were initially coded through open coding and data-driven approaches, using the universal script scenes proposed by Cornish (1994). All scenes and informa- tion therein were agreed on by two researchers. 6 D. A. KEATLEY ET AL. Ta b le 2. C ri m e sc ri p t an al ys is of sc h oo l- sh oo te r b eh av io rs . Sc h oo l- sh oo te r sc ri p t sc en e U n iv er sa l sc ri p t sc en e Be h av io ur s Ex am p le s 1. In flu en ce s Pr ep ar at io n ● A tt en d ed th er ap y, p ar en ts se p ar at ed . ● Ra is ed ar ou n d fir ea rm s, p re vi ou s cr im es . ● Sa id to h av e sh ow n an g ry b eh av io rs an d m ay h av e p re vi ou s ch ar g es fo r un re la te d cr im es . ● La n za – m ot h er = g un en th us ia st ● W h it m an – ta ug h t b y p ar en ts to h an d le g un s ● Ki n ke l – fa th er b ou g h t h im th e g un ● M er ce r – sh ow ed in te re st in m as s sh oo ti n g s & IR A 2. O p er at io n al Pr e- co n d it io n ● St ol e fr om p ar en ts or g iv en to th em b y a p ar en t. ● Kn iv es an d h om em ad e b om b s al so us ed . St ol e w ea po n ● La n za (M ot h er ’s ); C or n ea l (o w n an d fr ie n d ’s h ou se ) G iv en w ea po n ● Sp en ce r (F at h er ); Ki n ke l (F at h er ) 3. Re co n n ai ss an ce In st ru m en ta l ac tu al iz at io n ● Th ei r ow n sc h oo l/ un iv er si ty , cu rr en tl y at te n d in g or p re vi ou sl y. ● Jo h n so n , G ol d en , W oo d h am , st ol e a p ar en t’s ca r fo r tr an sp or t. O w n/ Cu rr en t Sc ho ol ● La n za ; Kl eb ol d & H ar ri s Pr ev io us Sc ho ol ● Ki n ke l 4. A ct iv it y D oi n g ● So m e b eg an at h om e b ef or e m ak in g th ei r w ay to th e sc h oo l/ un iv er si ty . ● M os t se em ed d is or g an iz ed , sh oo ti n g ra n d om ly . ● So m e sh ow ed cl ea r m ot iv at io n to ki ll ce rt ai n st ud en ts . H ar m fa m ily m em be rs ● La n za (M ot h er ); Ke h oe (W ife ); W h it m an (W ife ,M ot h er ); W oo d h am (M ot h er ); Criminal Behaviour CRM203 Workshop 5: Sex Offenses ‹#› 1 Content Legal aspects Psychological aspects Statistics Characteristics of sex offences Classification of sex offenders Cultural factors and sex offending ‹#› 2 KEY POINTS One of the most serious issues for students of criminal behaviour True rate of offending not known  In view of 2, what is known about offenders is possibly skewed  Sexual behaviour is principally learned behaviour. Although the sexual drive is naturally innate, the expression of sexual behaviour is learned. ‹#› 3 Classification The aim of classification is to allow for better understanding of different factors and may be useful in development of treatment. The main classifications are related to rape and to North American perspectives. As noted, this may be a limitation since it is dependent upon those who are caught. Availability of weapons might also be an issue. Given that cognitions play an important factor, north American attitudes may be different to other cultures ‹#› 4 Massachussetts Treatment Centre (MTC) Recognises both aggressive and sexual features Incorporates both into classification ‹#› 5 Displaced Aggression Also known as displaced anger or anger retaliation Rape is a violent act, anger & aggression are the motivation – the intent is to hurt, sexual violence and degradation is just another component of overall violence No indications of sexual pleasure from the offender; Victim resistance increases violence ‹#› 6 Displaced Aggression (eg offender who cut face of wife to ensure she retained a memory of him, then raped her and her girlfriend)   Concept of displacement – offender attacks women who are unknown but representative of their anger objects ‹#› 7 Displaced Aggression Perceive women as unfaithful, users and not loving   May be in relationships but these are not happy Dysfunctional backgrounds including neglect and abandonment ‹#› 8 Compensatory Sex is motivation Passive individuals act out fantasies Compensates for inadequacy; retreats from victim resistance Believes victims will come to love him ‹#› 9 Compensatory Problems with intimacy, and self esteem Functional in other areas of life but not high achievers Not generally anti-social eg offender who used stupefying drugs to assault, believed that victims would love him after the offence. ‹#› 10 Sexual Aggressive AKA Sadistic Rapist: Motivated by sex and aggression Aroused by pain of victim Offence characterised by sadistic sexual assault and severe physical injury Enjoys victim resistance ‹#› 11 Sexual Aggressive Believes victims enjoy the experience Believes yes means no (see B&B)   Difference between sadist and displaced: sadist – the assault and violence was part of the sex act ‹#› 12 Impulsive Opportunistic Impulsivity Limited violence – enough to overcome resistance Victim resistance probably deters.   Best described as a sexual thief – just takes anything he wants including sex ‹#› 13 MTC:R3 MTC:R3 utility for offender profiling Opportunistic (impulsive): High and low social competency distinction Pervasive anger: anger problems, very violent Sexual gratification: sadistic and non-sadistic and further divided by social competency Vindictive: displaced aggression and further divided by social competency ‹#› 14 Groth’s Classification Doesn’t accept straight sexual gratification/arousal in rape Believes rape is motivated by power and aggression Feminist perspectives were very powerful force in 1970’s – strongly argued against viewing sexual assault as a sex act This perspective is evident in Groth’s classification Groth’s typology of adult, male rapists (Taken from Gavin, 2014) ‹#› 15 Anger Rape Aim is to hurt and humiliate Is acted out of anger Offender views sex as dirty and the assault humiliates victim Includes violence and brutality Estimated 40\% of rapes ‹#› 16 Power Rape Aim is to control and demonstrate masculine power Victims may be assaulted to get compliance May include long term captives Estimated 55\% of rapes ‹#› 17 Sadistic Rape Aggression is eroticised Estimated 5\% of rapes ‹#› 18 Power Reassurance Least violent and aggressive Least socially competent Problems with low self-esteem and feelings of inadequacy Involvement in transvestism or promiscuous sexual behaviour: Voyeurism Fetishism Purpose of the rape is to elevate his status and the primary aim is sexual – the sex act validates his position of importance Only enough force necessary to commit the rape ‹#› 19 Power Reassurance Social characteristics Single Living with parents No sex partner Non-athletic Quiet, passive Social loner Menial occupation Preference for adult bookstores Voyeur Exhibitionist Fetishist ‹#› 20 Power Reassurance Neighbourhood attack Belief that the victim enjoys the rape Little use of profanity Victim asked to ‘talk dirty’ Victim asked to remove clothing Only body parts essential for the rape are exposed Victim same age cohort as rapist Rape committed every 7-15 days Rapist travels on foot Rapist may be impotent Use of weapon of opportunity Increasing violence as rape increases in number Possible later contact with victims Possible covering of victim’s face Rapes continue until apprehended Possible collection of souvenirs Rapist might keep a written diary ‹#› 21 Power Reassurance Power Reassurance (Compensatory) This offender has fantasies that involve a consensual relationship with the victim, and although there may be violence involved, it is more likely that he will try to avoid doing so in order to preserve the fantasy. When victims fight with this type of offender, he is more likely to attempt to compromise or leave because an attacking victim has destroyed the fantasy. This type of offender does not wish to hurt the victim, and there have been cases where this sort of offender attempts to contact the victim after the attack. ‹#› 22 Anger Retaliatory Purpose to hurt victims – victim is an object – choice of victim female in wrong place at wrong time Rape to get even with women and compensate for injustice experience (real or imagined) by other women Rapist perception of self: athletic and masculine Family and friends will report he has a quick and violent temper Connection between sexual gratification and his expression of anger and rage ‹#› 23 Anger Retaliatory Social characteristics Divorced parents Low level education Married Physically abusive Socially competent Hatred for women Adopted (in 20\% of cases) Wife not assaulted Athletic Bars frequented to find victims Preference for contact sports Action-oriented occupation ‹#› 24 Anger Retaliatory Neighbourhood attack Blitz attack Little planning Intent to harm victim Use of weapons of opportunity Victim’s clothing ripped off Use of excessive profanity Rapes committed every 6 months to 1 year Possible ejaculation into face of victim Anal then oral sex Victim same age or older than rapist Possible retarded ejaculation Increasing aggression Situation-precipitated attack ‹#› 25 Anger Retaliatory Anger Retaliatory (Displaced) This offender is one who is punishing the victim for real or perceived wrongs done to him early in life. For this individual, the act of rape is justified by the fact that he is taking revenge upon those (type of victim) who have hurt him in the past. Like the Power Assertive rapist, he may use great violence as a means to punish or degrade the victim. ‹#› 26 Power Assertive Rape is an attempt to express virility and personal dominance Sense of superiority in being male Rape is an entitlement Rape is an impulsive act of predation – aggression is shown to secure compliance of the victim No use of masks, blindfolds or darkness ‹#› 27 Power Assertive Social characteristics Single parent home in childhood (69\%) Time spent in foster homes (31\%) Physical abuse in childhood (74\%) High school dropout Serial marriages Image conscious Preference for single bars Macho occupation Domestic problems Property crime record Athletic Dishonourable discharge from military ‹#› 28 Power Assertive Rapist cruises singles bars Attacks occur from 7pm to 1am Victim’s clothing likely to be torn Rapist strikes about every 20- 25 days Multiple assaults perpetrated Assault is often both anal and oral Rapist is selfish in his behaviour Rapist has retarded ejaculation Rapist has no further contact with the victim Victim is conned and overpowered Rapist does not hide identity Rapist’s attack is brutal Victim is of rapist’s age group Victim is of rapist’s race ‹#› 29 Power Assertive Power Assertive (Exploitative) This offender may have self-esteem problems and rapes the victim in order to prove to himself that he is a man. This offender does not want the victim to be a participant like the power reassurance rapist, as he must prove to himself that he is able to dominate the victim. If the victim attempts to fight off the offender, the violence will escalate to maintain the dominant position. ‹#› 30 Anger Excitatory Rape is an expression of sexually aggressive fantasies Purpose to inflict physical and psychological pain on the victim Antisocial personality Connection made between sexual gratification and aggressive behaviour – aggression and violence has been eroticised ‹#› 31 Anger Excitatory Social characteristics Single parent home in childhood (60\%) Time spent in foster homes (13\%) Physical abuse in childhood (63\% Sexually deviant home in childhood Middle-class family man Some college education Married No arrest record Age range 30-39 Compulsive personality White-collar occupation ‹#› 32 Anger Excitatory Victim stalked Victim transported Use of gags, bondage, handcuffs Possible use of blindfolds Victim’s clothing cut Elements of ritualism Degrading language Retarded ejaculation Increasing violence with additional rapes Rapist has rape kit Rapist may eventually kill Periods between rapes vary Victim’s ages vary ANYWHERE, ANYTIME, ANYPLACE, ANYONE ‹#› 33 Behaviour Approximate frequency (\%) Makes a surprise approach 35\% Child present during stranger attack 0.05\% Use weapon to control victim (e.g., threaten with knife) 22.5\% Offender reveals details about himself 40\% Offender kisses victim 36\% Offender rips clothing 12.3\% Blindfold or gag 3.5\% Offender kicks or punches victim (more than once) 15\% Offender apologises to victim 6.7\% Blitz attack (sudden violence on initial approach to overpower victim 1\% Frequencies of behaviours in sexual attacks in stranger rapes Rape Behaviour Statistics Legal Aspects Types of assault: indecent & sexual penetration and others Aggravation: for example being armed (or pretending to be), harm, age of victim, degradation of victim, threats, in company ‹#› 35 Types of non-consent Threats to victim or others Victim is detained Victim is asleep, unconscious, or impaired by drugs Mistaken identity Doesn’t understand Believes it is for medical purposes Consent is fraudulent Consent is withdrawn ‹#› 36 Psychological Aspects Distinction between dysfunction, paraphilia, and unlawful behaviour For example: Bestiality, voyeurism, frotteurism, rape, paedophilia, indecent exposure, necrophilia, pornography (especially child), obscene calls, fetishism, masochism, bigamy, homosexuality (at different ages/times), adultery (different places/times) ‹#› 37 Statistics Great variations in reports of sex offences between and within jurisdictions Official statistics do not resemble actual levels Actual level is difficult to determine and official statistics are dependent upon many other factors – in some countries victims are criminalised and in many ostracised ‹#› 38 In Australia 1 in 5 females & 1 in 20 males sexually assaulted since age 15 1 in 3 females & 1 in 6 males abused before age 18 93\% of offenders are males 30\% or less report offences to the police 20\% of reports lead to criminal proceedings by police (ie investigated – nearly 80\% no further action after reporting) ‹#› 39 In Australia 10\% of incidents result in guilty outcome; between 1/4 and 1/3 do not make it to court 3\% of offences result in conviction Girls age 10 to 14 in highest victimisation bracket followed by 15 to 24; then 0 to 9 which is higher than 25 to 44 30\% by family member; 43\% by known other (but may include family member); 21\% by stranger (but 8\% for 0 to 9 group) 60\% in private dwelling with another 6\% in other residential ‹#› 40 Key Issue: INCREASE REPORTING Any strategy that decreases reporting is counter-productive See especially any strategies/laws which punish offenders excessively ‹#› 41 Why is it not reported? Concerns about offender Disruption of family, life Not believed CJS procedures too humiliating Assumed guilt of the victim Fear of retaliation Victim didn’t know it was illegal Fear of being “silly” ‹#› 42 Why is it not charged? no offender located insufficient evidence victim did not wish to proceed police believe it is false reporting ‹#› 43 Overall: Low rates of conviction Strangers much more likely to be reported Knowledge is based on convicted Biased sample thus biased knowledge ‹#› 44 ‹#› 45 Recidivism High recidivist rate, in WA: non-Aboriginal sex offender .35 (base rate .45) Aboriginal sex offender .80 (base rate .75) But old study and biased Currently estimated at 15\% on average but goes much higher with persistent offenders and anti-social offenders ‹#› 46 Theory Perspectives Rape and power theory. Rape is an expression of masculine power (ie not motivated by insecurity but by masculine pride); and/or Rapist is insecure, threatened by women, uses rape as an expression of power and domination. ‹#› 47 Theory Perspectives Rape and violence theory Rape as an act of violence Instrumental sexual aggression: use just enough violence to achieve their goal Expressive sexual aggression: violence part of the sexual experience ‹#› 48 Theory Perspectives Sexual gratification theory Traditional explanation - rape is sexual gratification ‹#› 49 Cultural Perspective Cultural factors play an important role in rape especially the endorsement of rape myths: Uncontrollable urges ie self restraint is reduced but evidence on level of planning refutes this. Mental disturbance, weak personality etc - no evidence to support this. Blame it on the alcohol or some other drug. Blame it on the victim - she enticed me ‹#› 50 Cultural Perspective False report – she asked for it, “woman with skirt up can run faster than man with pants down”, needle and thread In any case, sexual behaviour is learnt in a culture. ie. learning and culture are important. Cognition is critical factor. Both learning and cultural impact on cognition and see criminogenic attributes. ‹#› 51 Attributes of sex offenders Arousal Rapists are aroused by scenes of consenting & non-consenting sex. Non rapists inhibited by violence or non-consenting sex. Material that depicts women in demeaning roles or contains violence is likely to entice a potential offender to commit acts of sexual offending. Aberrant sexual arousal is also a very high predictor of re-offending. ‹#› 52 Attributes of sex offenders Empathy Empathy deficits seem only to centre on victims. Most feel good after rape; 8\% guilty; >1\% concern for victim. Probably neutralisations are more critical than empathy deficits. Intimacy problems ‹#› 53 Attributes of sex offenders Self esteem problems with some offenders (see classification above) Cognitive distortions (see also above), belief systems, attitudes, neutralisations. Literature abounds with offenders displaying criminal sentiments. From denial to cultural norms endorsing rape behaviours And other criminogenic needs ‹#› 54 Treatment Standard treatment of criminogenic needs - main additional treatment is on criminal sentiments – attitudes, beliefs, distortions, neutralisations. As noted, considerable evidence of anti-social sentiments in sex offenders   Treatment of aberrant arousal if present ‹#› 55 Aversive Respondent Respondent conditioning: sexual behaviour is naturally occurring S-R bond. S-R bond becomes CS-CR bond.  Aim is to break the CS-CR bond by reconditioning the CS. Present CS and aversive stimulus. CS then gets associated with unpleasant experience and patients seeks to avoid CS as sexual arousal. ‹#› 56 Aversive Respondent Aversive stimuli can be imagery electrical shock foul odour foul taste shame anxiety ‹#› 57 Reconditioning The above seeks to remove the CS as a sexual stimulus.  Reconditioning seeks to introduce new and appropriate stimulus for arousal.  Aim is to develop CS-CR bond where CS is adult females.   ‹#› 58 Reconditioning Techniques include  Fading - the inappropriate CS is gradually removed in favour of an appropriate one. Can also be used in an aversive manner: CS is gradually changed to an aversive stimulus. These are combined with masturbatory reconditioning.   ‹#› 59 Other Techniques Sometimes the sexual deviation is related to anxiety (see classifications)   Desensitisation is then used - ie. changing stimulus from being anxiety producing to relaxed state.   Eg. Normal S-R sexual bond ie. women in erotic situations. But this also produces anxiety ie. CS-CR bond of: WOMEN-ANXIETY This is replaced with women-relaxation   ‹#› 60 Criminal Profiling Dr David Keatley 1 Case: Zodiac 2 Hunting “the most dangerous animal of all” 3 December 20th, 1968 David Faraday & Betty Lou Jensen On December 20, 1968, David Arthur Faraday, 17, and Betty Lou Jensen, 16,were on their first date when they pulled over into a lovers lane on Lake Herman Road in Benicia. There, they were forced from the car by a killer and Faraday was shot in the head. Jensen began to run away but was shot multiple times in the back. 4 July 4th, 1969 Michael Mageau & Darlene Ferrin On July 4, 1969, Michael Renault Mageau, 19, and Darlene Elizabeth Ferrin, 22, were in the parking lot of Blue Rock Springs Park in Vallejo - 4 miles from the first crime scene - when they were shot to pieces, according to the investigator. But while Ferrin was pronounced dead on arrival, Mageau survived being shot in the face, neck and chest. 5 September 27th, 1969 Bryan Hartnell & Cecilia Shepard On September 27, 1969, Bryan Calvin Hartnell, 20, and Cecelia Ann Shepard, 22, were having a picnic at Lake Berryessa in Napa County when they were approached by a hooded man who bound and stabbed them. Hartnell survived eight stab wounds to his back, but Shepard died two days later. 6 October 11th, 1969 Paul Stine BEWARE THIS ONE (PHOTOS ARE AVAILABLE) On October 11, 1969, cab driver Paul Lee Stine, 29, picked up a passenger and drove him to Presidio Heights - where he was shot in the back of the head and robbed. The killer also ripped part of Stines shirt, which he later sent with a letter to a local newspaper. 7 BEWARE THE CYPHERS Sent to San Francisco Chronicle et al. 8 Who is the Zodiac? 9 FBI Profiling Organised Disorganised Average - above IQ Socially Competent Skilled work preferred High birth - order status Father’s work stable Sexually competent Inconsistent childhood discipline Controlled mood during crime Use of alcohol with crime Precipitating situational stress Living with partner Mobility (car in good condition) Follows crime in news media May change job or leave town Below - average IQ Socially inadequate Unskilled work Low birth - order statis Father’s work unstable Sexually incompetent Harsh discipline as a child Anxious mood during crime Minimal use of alcohol Minimal situational stress Living alone Lives/works near crime scene Minimal interest in news media Significant behaviour change Offender Characteristics 10 FBI Profiling Minimal interest in news media Significant behaviour change Crime Scene Characteristics Organised Disorganised Planned offense Victim a targeted stranger Personalises victim Controlled conversation Crime scene reflects control Demands submissive victim Restraints used Aggressive acts prior to death Body hidden Weapon/evidence absent Transports victim or body Spontaneous offense Victim/location known Depersonalises victim Minimal conversation Crime scene random and sloppy Sudden violence to victim Minimal use of restraints Sexual acts after death Body left in view Weapon/evidence often present Body left at death scene 11 Who is the Zodiac? 12 Suspects Multiple over the years (Everyone from BTK to UNABOMber) Possibles: Lawrence Kane (linked to previous similar crimes) Ross Sullivan (suspect in previous similar crimes) Arthur Leigh Allan (prime suspect in Graysmith’s book; talked about wanting to attach a flashlight to a firearm) Richard Marshall (many lifestyle similarities to Zodiac [basement; films; interests]) Richard Gaikowski (editor for newspaper, voice similar to Zodiac, coworker testimony, ‘GYKE’) Earl van Best Jr. (son, Gary Stewart names him as Zodiac) Jack Terrance (son, Dennis Jaufman names him as Zodiac) Donald Lee Bujok (escaped from Montana Deer Lodge Penitentiary) Is it any of these? Or none of these? Who else? DON’T FORGET TO LOOK FOR OTHER CASES…. 13 Criminal Behaviour CRM203 Jonbenet Ramsey ‹#› 1 Matters arising MCQ – well done for all who completed it. Feedback coming on LMS soon Focus on the essay coming up soon ‹#› 2 background Family host a Christmas party 6.47pm: Someone at the party places a 911 call. No message left. 6.54pm: police attend – turned away being assured everything is fine Timeline: 23rd December 1996 December 25th 1996: 5pm: Family spend the afternoon at Fleet White residence. In the evening Ramsey family drive home Jonbenet (JB) is asleep on the drive home, when they arrive home (9.30pm), Jon Ramsey (JR) carries Jonbenet up to her bedroom and puts her to bed (she remains asleep) JR and Burke Ramsey (BR; 9 yr old brother) remain awake for a couple of hours building Mechano set Family retire to bed Timeline: 25th December 1996 Before the night is over… Jonbenet will … Be fed pineapple Have her underwear changed. Be tasered Her hands loosely tied. Be (sexually) assaulted Suffer a severe trauma to the back of the head Be strangled (by a garrotte). Be killed Gray = uncertain BRACE YOURSELVES December 26th 1996: Patsy Ramsey (PR) wakes early PR goes down the back spiral staircase. At the bottom step she sees the ransom note Timeline: 26th December 1996 December 26th 1996: Patsy Ramsey (PR) wakes early PR goes down the back spiral staircase. At the bottom step she sees the ransom note She only reads the first few lines… She screams/She runs back upstairs to check on JBs room JR is awoken Check BR room – he is asleep, they leave him sleeping 5.52am: PR calls the police to report the incident Timeline: 26th December 1996 Police arrive: 6 am; friends arrive at same time Perform cursory search of premises Window in basement found broken Suitcase beneath window JR begins process of gaining $118,000 8am: police arrive and set-up wiretrap and recording equipment Timeline: 26th December 1996 1pm: Linda Arndt asks Fleet White and JR to search the house for ‘anything unusual’ 1.30pm: Fleet White and JR discover JB in basement JR removes tape from mouth and carries her upstairs JR asks for blanket to cover JB PR throws herself on JB screaming “help me Jesus” Linda Arndt moves JB to living room/under Christmas tree and places Colorado Avalanche sweatshirt over her 2pm: JR places call to his pilot to ready Atlanta flight 8pm: Coroner arrives to remove body Timeline: 26th December 1996 Police report death from asphyxiation January 4th: Skull fracture found indicating she would have died from a blunt trauma to the skull She was suffocated while she lay dying. Timeline: 27th December 1996 PROFILE THE CRIMESCENE PROFILE THE KILLER A tale of 2 stories A cover-up? https://xiaoyuannn.wordpress.com/tag/crime/ PR and JR did not spend any time together JR ‘cordial’ as he greeted Arndt at door 10am deadline passed unnoticed Arndt asked family and friends for clues Everyone submitted ideas, except JR Approximately 10.30am, JR is unaccounted for (Searching house) His demeanour at midday is changed (shocked, withdrawn, saddened) Arndt’s report JR told friend: “I found JB at 11am” (2 hours before Arndt orders search) December 27th, PR sister sent to home to collect ‘list of items’ – including a golf bag (in winter) 2001: JR admits to looking out of son’s upstairs window, and seeing a van – he suggests this was intruders’… but… can also see trash cans Within hours of JB being found, Ramsey lawyers are already mobilised and making calls First call: not to potential suspects that Ramsey’s pointed police to, but to Whites and other family friends present. BR removed from home at approx. 1pm (December 26th) Kolar’s report (i) Pineapple found in JBs stomach (eaten shortly before her death) – none served at Fleet White’s party Sexual assault (digital penetration) Signs of previous trauma Blood had been wiped away, but residual amount remained JB draped in favourite blanket JB dressed in panties too big for her PR claimed never to have seen panties (police later found evidence she had recently bought them for 12 year old niece, but JB wanted them) Coroner’s report usan Smith drowned her two young boys, just as thousands of parents have murdered their own children, and countless fathers have molested their daughters.Such brutality does happen, and society’s mindset disregarding such behavior results in more victims. 22 “whoever finds the body is most likely to have killed the person” “if every bit of evidence is making you look left… take a moment to look right” Body wrapped in blanket – shame, guilt Parents don’t kill children… except… Susan Smith (murdered children) – along with many thousands more Countless fathers have molested their child/children FBI Report Susan Smith drowned her two young boys, just as thousands of parents have murdered their own children, and countless fathers have molested their daughters.Such brutality does happen, and society’s mindset disregarding such behavior results in more victims. 23 Basement window entry (myth) Dispelling intruder myth 25 Dispelling intruder myth 26 A tale of 2 stories https://xiaoyuannn.wordpress.com/tag/crime/ RULEd in usan Smith drowned her two young boys, just as thousands of parents have murdered their own children, and countless fathers have molested their daughters.Such brutality does happen, and society’s mindset disregarding such behavior results in more victims. 28 Case against JR “The call would not have been made if both were collaborating on the staging of a kidnapping, because that call effectively nullified that staging. Why go to all the trouble of writing a long ransom note and then bring the police into your home while the kidnap victim is still inside? By the same token, if Patsy wrote the note and John was innocent, she would certainly have not wanted to make the call and would have seriously resisted, insisting it was too dangerous and calling his attention to the threats in the note. And if shed resisted, and John nevertheless wanted the call made, I see no reason why he would not have made it himself.” RULED IN usan Smith drowned her two young boys, just as thousands of parents have murdered their own children, and countless fathers have molested their daughters.Such brutality does happen, and society’s mindset disregarding such behavior results in more victims. 29 Case against JR “Thus: Fact: no intruder, telling us this must have been an inside job. Fact: Patsy Ramsey is the one who called the police, telling us she could have known nothing about the staging clearly implied in the note. Conclusion: John Ramsey and John Ramsey alone must be the guilty party. Case solved.” RULED IN usan Smith drowned her two young boys, just as thousands of parents have murdered their own children, and countless fathers have molested their daughters.Such brutality does happen, and society’s mindset disregarding such behavior results in more victims. 30 A tale of 2 3 stories https://xiaoyuannn.wordpress.com/tag/crime/ Paper for ransom note used from Ramsey kitchen At least 1 previous ransom note attempt made “Mr and Mrs│” Pen used (and replaced) from pen holder under kitchen counter Why? The Ransom note The Ransom note “Listen carefully!” “foreign faction” – foreign? Correction “we do respect…” – change mindset? Misspelling “bussiness” “possessions” (but correct ‘attaché’ ‘deviation’) “We have your daughter in our possession” – “in our possession” – understood and unnecessary $118,000 – the exact bonus JB had for xmas “your account” “be rested” “she dies” (not “she will die”) – and no exclamation point “And, hence” (doesn’t make sense… but PR uses it in xmas cards) Mr Ramsey  John SBTC The Ransom note Asked one of the police officers present in the morning: “have they brought in the cadaver dogs yet?” Why ask for dead-body-dogs? PR quotations On Dec. 27, 1996, Patsy Ramsey, exhausted and lying down, reached up and touched the face of a friend, Pam Griffin, the woman who had made JonBenet’s pageant costumes. Griffin thought Patsy was delirious when she asked, “Couldnt you fix this for me?” as though a sewing machine could bring back her daughter. She then remembers Patsy saying, “We didnt mean for this to happen” and Griffin got the definite feeling that in her weakened condition, Patsy had revealed that she knew who the killer was. PR quotations “you know, America has just been hurt so deeply with the tragic things that have happened. The young woman who drove her children into the water, and we don’t know what happened with the O. J. Simpson – and I mean, America is suffering because (people) had lost faith in the American family. We are a Christian, God-fearing family. We love our children. We would do anything for our children” PR, during Janary 1st, 1997, CNN interview PR quotations Steve thomas usan Smith drowned her two young boys, just as thousands of parents have murdered their own children, and countless fathers have molested their daughters.Such brutality does happen, and society’s mindset disregarding such behavior results in more victims. 38 A tale of 2 3 4 stories https://xiaoyuannn.wordpress.com/tag/crime/ Burke Ramsey The golf bag that was asked to be removed – belonged to BR Parents never woke BR – but he’s heard on police 911 call History of abuse towards sister (including hitting her with a golf club) Fingerprints on pineapple bowl and tea glass PR serves pineapple to BR (though denies contact)… Burke Ramsey The taser marks… Burke Ramsey Burke Ramsey 43 Interview, 26th December No concern for sister Continues eating sandwich… DSS Psychologist interviewed BR: “shows little emotional connection with family” BR: “I feel safe at home” – after an intruder broke in? Dr Bernhard (psychologist) took a sip from BRs soda cup – BR ‘bristled’ and indicated he could not drink from it anymore… Playing ‘Guess who’ – BR flips down a face, realises mistake, and says “oops, you’re not dead yet” BR leaves JB our of portraits (school friends include her – normal for grief). Dad in plane (small distant), mother smaller than BR Burke Ramsey Report “Flat, unemotional affect, closed down, and difficult to draw info out of Not sociopathic – behaviour more typical of ‘dysfunctional environment’ Psychologist asked BR if he knew what happened BR - thought she was struck over head (and imitated the exact overhead blow as he said it) Perhaps she was stabbed Never mentions she was strangled (though he knew by that point) What he did NOT know was that she had received a head trauma – the autopsy had not come back yet Burke Ramsey Report Paughs (PR parents) bought PR/JR books on: The hurried child – growing up too fast Children at risk Why Johnny cant tell right from wrong No evidence for parental sexual involvement… USA Stats on child murders 1996: 16 murders by boys <10 years old 1996: 61 forcible rapes committed by boys <10 years old Sexual behaviour problems JonbenÉt Ramsey (1990-1996) https://xiaoyuannn.wordpress.com/tag/crime/ Criminal Behaviour CRM203 Dr David Keatley Senior Lecturer in Criminology Chair of Crime Science Director of Researchers in Behaviour Sequence Analysis (ReBSA) Director of Cold Case Review Lecture 1: Introduction 1 1 Lecture Overview Course overview Assessments What is Criminal Behaviour? 2 2 Assessment 1: Essay Title: Evaluate the claim “we can predict who will become a criminal”.   Due Date: 1st October, 2021, 5pm. Max. word count: 1500 (not including reference list or tables etc) THIS IS A REVIEW OF RESEARCH LITERATURE Articles (to get you started) Herrenkohl, T. I., Jung, H. J., & Lee, J. O. (2017). Effects of child maltreatment, cumulative victimization experiences, and proximal life stress on adult crime and antisocial behavior. Summary Report for US Department of Justice. Keatley, D. A., Golightly, H., Shephard, R., Yaksic, E., & Reid, S. (2018). Using behavior sequence analysis to map serial killers’ life histories. Journal of interpersonal violence, 0886260518759655. Monahan, J. (1984). The prediction of violent behavior. American Journal of Psychiatry, 141(1), 10-15. 3 3 What is (criminal) Behaviour? 4 4 How do we measure behaviour? (and how do we apply this in real world?) 5 5 What is Crime? Where do we get our knowledge/understanding of crime from? 6 6 Criminal Statistics Where do we get our stats from? Official sources, mostly police and courts. Do these reflect the actual level of crime? Probably not 7 7 Criminal Statistics There is no universal, standard categorisation scheme for crime Different sources/assessments give different data Theft and property crimes = majority British Crime Survey Police recorded crime 8 8 Criminal Statistics: Sources Source Benefits Limitations Surveys of general population Researcher controlled; Incl. events not in court/reported Recall; accuracy; exaggeration; low response rate; ethics Police stats Better evidence?; systematic? Reporting bias; reported vs recorded; Court stats Validity? Accessible? Prosecution vs no charge Prison Stats Breakdown of criminals/crimes; Biases in sentencing; change in policy and law; validity? General population offender surveys Random sample; overcome police and court limitations Bias (serious criminals arrested); deception 9 9 Task: Was there a robbery? Case 1 Man and woman talking for approximately 10 seconds… Man walks away Case 3 Man and woman talking for approximately 10 seconds… Man runs away Case 2 Man and woman talking for approximately 30 seconds… Man walks away Case 4 Man and woman talking for approximately 30 seconds… Man runs away 10 10 Task: Was there a robbery? Langsdale and Greenberg (2006) Man running after 10 seconds more likely to be a crime than if ran after 30 seconds Walking away = less chance of crime? In real life, this may be the difference between a crime being reported or not “interpretive processes” Remember those ‘shuffling bodies’ – context is important! 11 11 Reporting of crime: Usefulness Limited usefulness in limited circumstances Result of complex social and cognitive processes That we need to be aware of! Problems of source, nature, and interpretation of data There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics (Mark Twain [maybe]) 12 12 40\% of crime is reported What is likely to be reported? Why? What is least likely to be reported? Why? Who is likely to be reported? Why Who is likely to report? Why 13 Using official statistics Crime definitions vary between and within jurisdictions. Crime statistics do not reflect the actual level of crime. Most of what we know about offenders comes from those who are adjudicated Are these adjudicated offenders a reasonable representation of offenders; a representative sample? What does it mean? 14 Victimisation Surveys Another method of measuring crime is through victimisation surveys. Victimisation surveys are regularly conducted in many jurisdictions. In Australia, the Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes these. These figures confirm that not all crime is reported and not all reported crime is recorded 15 Victimisation Surveys Probably an underestimate because: Some people are difficult to survey (children, remote communities, people who live with the offender) Some people do not know they have been victims But are useful because they give a better/different picture and they can investigate why some crimes are not reported 16 Self-Report Measures Another method is to simply ask a representative sample about their offending. Turns out there is much more crime than we thought – seems we are all criminals 17 Using Crime Statistics Crime statistics are used in a range of areas such as testing criminological theories, evaluation of the criminal justice system, setting criminal justice priorities and forecasting. You need to be aware of two key (related) issues Ecological fallacy Distinction between incidence and prevalence 18 Ecological Fallacy Making judgements about an individual based on aggregate data For example, low income areas have higher rates of crime than high income areas You might infer that low income individuals commit more crime BUT higher income individuals who live in low income areas tend to commit more crime AND low income individuals in high income areas tend to commit less crime 19 Prevalence and Incidence Need to distinguish between incidence and prevalence Prevalence refers to the number of offenders in a given area over a given time. Incidence refers to the number of offences committed by offenders in a given area over a given time. Crime rate refers to the number of offences in a given area over a given time. 20 Prevalence and Incidence Area A has 3,000 burglars per 100,000 who commit 2 crimes per year giving a crime rate of 6,000 burglaries per year Area B has 1,000 burglars per 100,000 who commit 7 crimes per year giving a crime rate of 7,000 burglaries per year 21 Correlations!! Mostly our knowledge of crime is based on correlations Correlations: crime and poverty are correlated. What does this mean? 22 Correlations!! Mostly our knowledge of crime is based on correlations Correlations: crime and poverty are correlated. What does this mean? Very few randomised control studies Why? 23 Correlations!! Mostly our knowledge of crime is based on correlations Correlations: crime and poverty are correlated. What does this mean? Very few randomised control studies Why? 24 Correlations!! Mostly our knowledge of crime is based on correlations Correlations: crime and poverty are correlated. What does this mean? 25 What does it all mean? Our data are not very good: Not random samples, especially for some offences. Why does this matter? Crime statistics are poor. Crime statistics can be difficult to interpret. Does increasing crime rates mean increasing crime? Why is there Indigenous over-representation in prisons? 26 Question: What are the chances? On my walk to work today, I saw a car with the licence plate: CR1ME P4YS 27 27 Court proceedings: There has been a hit and run accident at night involving a taxi cab.  The only eyewitness identified the taxi cab as being blue.  There are two taxi companies operating in the city.  One company has green cabs which make up 85\% of the total cabs in the city.  The other company has blue cabs, comprising the remaining 15\% of taxis.   Why does it even matter? -Researcher-Practitioner- The eyewitness was tested by the court under similar night time conditions and was able to accurately distinguish the colour of cab 80\% of the time.   What is the likelihood that the eyewitness correctly identified the cab as blue? 28 Why does it even matter? -Researcher-Practitioner- People frequently estimated the likelihood of proper identification of the cab at 80\%, consistent with the eyewitnesses demonstrated reliability.   Even those who attempted to calibrate a more accurate estimate judged that the eyewitness would be correct over 50\% of the time.   The reality is that given the underlying percentages of cab colours (only 15\% are blue), the eyewitness is likely to be incorrect in their testimony nearly 60\% of the time.  That is, they are more likely to be wrong than right! taxis.   Source: Tversky and Kahneman (1982) 29 Why does it even matter? -Researcher-Practitioner- 30 Why does it even matter? -Researcher-Practitioner- CRIME RATES “theft increases 50\%” Shock, horror, panic… 50\%... Help!!! RUN.. But wait… 50\% … OF WHAT???? 31 Why does it even matter? -Researcher-Practitioner- “theft increases 50\%” That sounds a lot, so let’s call it an increase of 2\% and sleep easy Imagine: 4 crimes last year… 50\% (relative) and a 2\% (absolute) increase both = 6 32 cf. Spousal homicide Final thoughts… You can make Criminology better (and I want you to) Behaviour is not easy to define (let alone measure) Beware statistics 33 Criminal Behaviour CRM203 Workshop 3: Profiling 1 Lecture Overview The Art of profiling FBI Blunders The science of profiling Geographic Statistical / ‘Investigative’ 2 Science vs Art Art Science 3 In the beginning… James A. Brussel (1956) Psychoanalysis profile of New York Bomber “heavy” “middle-aged” “male” “single” “living with a sibling” Convincingly accurate picture of: Suspect: George Metesky 4 Modus Operandi The particular way in which a person performs a particular task “the offender’s actions during the commission of a crime that are necessary to complete the crime (Keppel et al., 2005). THESE ARE NOT FIXED (some criminals change, some adapt…) Examples Type of restraint used, wound patterns, fibre of restraint Type of weapon used (knife, blunt object, gun) Tape/binding (hands, mouth, eyes) Tools to gain entry to home Time of day (practical considerations) Lack of fingerprints: gloves used (forensic knowledge?) 5 Signature ‘a distinctive action or characteristic’ Actions or behaviours at a crime that are idiosyncratic or characteristic of the killer ~ feeds emotional or psychological needs of criminal FIXED AND UNCHANGING (but may evolve) Signature linked to criminal (see patterns, connect crimes) Examples Level of injury (minimal or excessive) Specific location or sequence of criminal act Ejaculation, urination, and/or defecation at crime scene Specific type of weapon used Personal items taken from victim Specific victim targeted (race, age, profession, physical characteristics) Anything specifically left at crime scene (note, mark, object) 6 Profiling ‘Behaviour is exhibited at a crime, or a series of similar crimes, and studying this behaviour allows inferences to be made about the likely offender’ (Jackson & Bekerian, 1997) Homant & Kennedy (1998) - 3 main types: Crime Scene Profiling – info at crime scene Offender Profiling – collection of data, aggregate of those involved in particular crimes Psychological Profiling – personality tests, interviewing etc. to assess which individual fits known personality template Davies (1997) ‘constructing a hypothetical picture of a perpetrator of a crime on the basis of data from the scene of the crime, witness statements, and other valuable information’ 7 Case Study: Jack the Ripper ‘How many victims? (11, 6, 5) Keppel et al. “6 based on signature of crime” 8 Case Study: Jack the Ripper Look away…. Martha Tabram? Face up Clothing disarranged Exposed lower part of body and genitals (legs wide open) Killed on the spot (no dragging) Body found 4.45am, 3 hours after killing Known prostitute, heavy drinker 36 years of age 39 stab wounds (left side, and genitals; 17 to breast, 13 in lower body) Wounds to: neck, liver, spleen, stomach All wounds inflicted before death 9 Case Study: Jack the Ripper Look away…. Mary Jane Kelly Face down, indoors Mutilation (nose, ears removed); flesh removed Heart missing Organs placed around room Uterus and one breast placed under bed Vulva and right buttock removed Some mutilation occurred after death 10 Case Study: Jack the Ripper Similarities Prostitutes 24-45 Once they lifted clothing, strangled and lowered to ground Usually heads facing to left Attacks at night (midnight-6am) All took place within 2.6km Sequentially 1.6km Found where killed Sharp, long bladed knife Differences Martha stabbed from front, others behind (less blood/detection?) Outside to inside (detection? Interruption? – increase mutilation) 11 Case Study: Jack the Ripper Signatures Picquerism – sexual pleasure obtained from cutting or stabbing Submission of victim – Multiple wounds to incapacitate not immediately kill Overkill/domination – excessive attacks Degradation – leaving bodies in public places (Invincible? Authority? Ego?) Posing of body – sexually revealing Escalation of violence – more extreme over time Planning - no evidence left “organised serial killer” Signature only useful if it reveals very idiosyncratic behaviours; Keppel et al. compared these to database – how many matched? 0.03\% 12 Find the offender Offenders home Crime location/scene Rape in park 7am, 21yr old jogger, attacked from behind; gagged, blindfolded, forced to wear tights, Description: 20-25 hooded, sweatshirt, sandy blonde hair, *04/03/02 Rape / Murder Battered in home Foreign object inserted Description: EWT: red delivery van - fridges *28/03/02 Burglary Estate/halls of residence Computer/mobile/ CDs taken *28/01/02 Robbery Post office; handgun; threatening lang. Single offender Computer/mobile/ CDs taken *10/10/99 Robbery Post office; 10am; lone offender; handgun; threaten to shoot customers EWT: young, muscular *10/10/01 Scale: 1 in. = 1mile Norman 16, single, lives alone, psychiatric history: indecent exposure x1; thin, blonde hair Dave 35, married w .kids, juvenile record of theft, adult burglary x10; bald Mike 46, single, rape (child 12), indecent assault (child), indecent exposure, schizophrenic, balding dark hair Jake Married w. kids, robbery, Dom. Violence, knows Michelle Jerry 57, married w. kids, Dom. Violence, no preconvs, dark hair, blue eyes Damen 28, w. partner, drink driving, Dom Violence, balding Quentin 42, unmarried, drugs, drunk & disorderly, depression Mark 50, w. partner, chronic sex offender (children), unemployed Nils 25, single, rape, blonde, construction worker, frequents bondage clubs Alan 21, single, indecent exposure x 12, blond, slim, blue eyes Source: Alison & Eyre (2009) The key here is to find out who the suspect is – students are to work their way through each suspect debating which they think is the most likely. “Time to profile” Artistic impressions 14 Blunders Rachel Nickell 15th July 1992 Walking with her son on Wimbledon Common Brutally stabbed and sexually assaulted Killer profiled No evidence at time “Operation Ezdell” – Undercover policewoman Series of letters and meetings Psychological ladders to climb 15 Blunders Paul Britton: Potential for investigations to be misled by profilers: “if this had happened in a murder or rape investigation, then someone else could have died or been attacked” In relation to Rachel’s murderer: “It is almost inevitable that this person will kill another young woman at some point in the future…” 16 Blunders C.S. “Rachel’s killer could have been sitting opposite, borrowing my salt and pepper, and I wouldn’t know him or recognise him…. …if he came into my consulting room and I learned all of the details of his sexuality, I would know immediately that he was likely to have killed Rachel Nickell, without him mentioning it” “the sexual fantasies in the killer are so rare, that the chances of two such rare individuals being on Wimbledon Common at the same time are ‘vanishingly small’…” 17 Blunders Robert Napper The murderer of Rachel Nickell, July 15th 1992… And Samantha Bisset… in November, 1993. and her four year old daughter 18 Classic Classification of Behaviours ORGANISED DISORGANISED Personal Characteristics Sexually competent Lives with partner Has charm Low intelligence Unskilled Lives alone Poor personal hygiene Post offense behaviour May move body Police ‘groupie’ /follower May turn religious May change job Recommended Interview technique Direct strategy Accurate details Show empathy Interview at night 19 Classic Classification of Behaviours Organised Disorganised Average - above IQ Socially Competent Skilled work preferred High birth - order status Father’s work stable Sexually competent Inconsistent childhood discipline Controlled mood during crime Use of alcohol with crime Precipitating situational stress Living with partner Mobility (car in good condition) Follows crime in news media May change job or leave town Below - average IQ Socially inadequate Unskilled work Low birth - order statis Father’s work unstable Sexually incompetent Harsh discipline as a child Anxious mood during crime Minimal use of alcohol Minimal situational stress Living alone Lives/works near crime scene Minimal interest in news media Significant behaviour change Profile Characteristics 20 Classic Classification of Behaviours Organised Disorganised Planned offense Victim a targeted stranger Personalises victim Controlled conversation Crime scene reflects control Demands submissive victim Restraints used Aggressive acts prior to death Body hidden Weapon/evidence absent Transports victim or body Spontaneous offense Victim/location known Depersonalises victim Minimal conversation Crime scene random and sloppy Sudden violence to victim Minimal use of restraints Sexual acts after death Body left in view Weapon/evidence often present Body left at death scene Crime Scene Characteristics 21 Homology Hypothesis Underlying basis of FBI profiling Crime scene characteristics Offender characteristics Offender characteristics Crime scene characteristics Convergence – support for homology hypothesis Divergence– no support for homology hypothesis Characteristics of offender reflected in characteristics of crime scene Crime scene can be effectively categorised Offender’s crimes tend to show characteristic patterns 22 Crime linkage approaches Linkage Matching Consistency between crime scenes and characteristics Characteristics of 1 offender’s crime scene Characteristics of same offender’s other crime scenes Characteristics of crime scene Characteristics of particular offender Groups of crime scene characteristics Characteristic traits of the offender Homology 23 Crime linkage approaches Part of the “Timeline Toolkit” 24 YOUR TURN: Profile this case Victim: Nude female Found 3pm, left for work at 6.30am Location: Roof of apartment block she lived in 26 yr old, 90 pounds weight, spinal deformation Not dating anyone Both nipples removed and placed on body Face severely beaten Throttled with strap of her bag Blunt instrument caused many face fractures All items used came from her bag Phrase “you can’t stop me” written in ink on inner thigh; “fuck you” on torso Pendant she usually wears was missing Victims underwear taken down and pulled over face Stockings tied around hands and ankles Pen and umbrella inserted into vagina Comb stuck in pubic hair No semen in victim’s vagina (ejaculation on body from standing position) Bite marks on thighs; various bruises and lacerations over body Faeces from murdered found close by (covered by victim’s clothes) No evidence of similar crimes being carried out in local area 25 White man Aged 25-35 Alcohol/drugs not material factors Any dates would be younger (controlled and dominated more easily) Average intelligence (dropped out of education) Difficulties in personal relationships Disorganised – confused, perhaps mental difficulties Fit into context well – might reside there, or employed there Never married No military background Possibly unemployed Sexual fantasies – possibly has/uses sadistic pornography Sexually inexperienced/inadequate Unskilled or skilled occupation Actual Profile 26 The links… Killers similar age and race to victims Fantasy embedded at core of extreme cases Fantasy as blueprint ‘trophy’ taking (pendant) indicates future fantasies Little evidence crime prepared for (disorganised, using victims belongings) Clearly sexual crime, but used substitutes, suggesting inadequacies (so likely never married) Elements of control and domination (bound/blindfolded) Lived near/knew the area: took time, knew no risk of being caught OUTCOME Father lived in apartment Released from mental hospital (light security) Bite marks linked him 27 Is profiling common sense? Snook et al. (2007) Systematic review 130 articles ‘sources of knowledge’ – common sense rather than science Hindsight bias, illusory correlates, availability heuristic, post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this, because of that) US more common sense than UK… FBI lacks scientific approach and rigour FBI = “smoke and mirrors” 28 Does profiling work? Does it work? Would you recommend it? Is common sense enough? What are the risks? Police still use inaccurate profiles (and ‘like’ them). WHY? What behaviours do we look for? Is absence of evidence, evidence of absence? 29 PROFILE HADDEN CLARK 30 WAIT!!! You have an activity 31 Think about where you live Imagine the surrounding area (plot some main features – roads, shops, village greens etc.) 32 Science vs Art Art Science 33 Now plot a murder… and a 2nd… and a 3rd… and a 4th STOP! 34 Investigative psychology Activity Put a dot in the middle of the page – that represents your home Imagine the surrounding area (plot some main features) Investigative psychology Activity Put a dot in the middle of the page – that represents your home Imagine the surrounding area (plot some main features) A B C D E F G H 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Where does the killer live? Investigative Psychology David Canter First crimes tell us most about criminal Location – closer to home to begin Routine Activity Theory Geographical Profiling Statistical Profiling 37 Investigative Psychology First Crimes (Routine Activity Theory) Relationship between criminals daily activities and the crimes committed Habits Crimes from everyday opportunities combined with 1) suitable target 2) minimal risk of being detected 3) potential offender available 38 Investigative Psychology Geographical Profiling Offender is likely to live in central area The further from the centre, the less likely to offend Relatively few offences in outer rings 39 Find the offender Offenders home Crime location/scene Rape in park 7am, 21yr old jogger, attacked from behind; gagged, blindfolded, forced to wear tights, Description: 20-25 hooded, sweatshirt, sandy blonde hair, *04/03/02 Rape / Murder Battered in home Foreign object inserted Description: EWT: red delivery van - fridges *28/03/02 Burglary Estate/halls of residence Computer/mobile/ CDs taken *28/01/02 Robbery Post office; handgun; threatening lang. Single offender Computer/mobile/ CDs taken *10/10/99 Robbery Post office; 10am; lone offender; handgun; threaten to shoot customers EWT: young, muscular *10/10/01 Scale: 1 in. = 1mile Norman 16, single, lives alone, psychiatric history: indecent exposure x1; thin, blonde hair Dave 35, married w .kids, juvenile record of theft, adult burglary x10; bald Mike 46, single, rape (child 12), indecent assault (child), indecent exposure, schizophrenic, balding dark hair Jake Married w. kids, robbery, Dom. Violence, knows Michelle Jerry 57, married w. kids, Dom. Violence, no preconvs, dark hair, blue eyes Damen 28, w. partner, drink driving, Dom Violence, balding Quentin 42, unmarried, drugs, drunk & disorderly, depression Mark 50, w. partner, chronic sex offender (children), unemployed Nils 25, single, rape, blonde, construction worker, frequents bondage clubs Alan 21, single, indecent exposure x 12, blond, slim, blue eyes Source: Alison & Eyre (2009) This is the reveal – might be worth deleting this if you hand out slides to the students before the session, as otherwise they can look ahead. Investigative Psychology Snook et al. (2005) German serial killers Killed average 4.6 times 63\% murders – killer lived within 10km of where body found Younger killers travelled less far Killers with higher IQ travelled further (avoid detection? Bigger mental maps? Better travelled?) 41 Investigative Psychology Snook et al. (2005) BUT Questionable whether initial killing is best indicator of where killer lives Averages (means) can be misleading… Mean distance between killer’s home and body site = 19miles Median distance = 5miles Some killers travelled a very long way (though very few in excess of 62 miles). 42 Investigative Psychology Bennell & Canter (2002) Stability in offenders choice of crime site locations – useful for identifying linkages Linked burglaries tend to occur close together 0.7km cut-off = 52\% linked, 93\% unlinked correctly identified 2.5km cut-off = 62\% linked, 68\% unlinked correctly identified Great care needed when setting cut-off/boundary points Bennell & Jones (2005) Commercial and residential crimes better linked by this method 43 Investigative Psychology Smallest space analysis A form of complex statistics analysis used to identify underlying patterns of characteristics of a crime scene How likely are features of a crime to exist and coexist with other features (if I see ‘x’ will I see ‘y’?) Group behaviours ‘Clusters’ of crime types/MO etc. Can analyse patterns over time 44 Investigative Psychology Crime Scene Characteristics 45 Investigative Psychology Quick guide… Murder A Murder B Murder C Multiple Weapons 1 1 2 Sexual humiliation 1 1 2 Night-time 2 1 2 Left naked 1 1 2 Note: 1 = yes; 2 = no Murders A and B = similar 3 out of 4 characteristics found 46 Investigative Psychology Multiple weapons Sexual Humiliation Night-time Victim left naked Multiple Weapons Sexual humiliation 3 Night-time 2 2 Left naked 3 3 2 Matrix of correspondence to see which of the four facts co-occur Complete agreement on ‘multiple weapons’ and ‘sexual humiliation’ across 3 murders Scores can be represented in ‘state space’ This takes some time to get your head around, and I usually have to go forwards and backwards a few times to show where these numbers come from  47 Investigative Psychology Smallest Space Analysis 3 (multiple weapons; sexual humiliation; victim left naked) are in the same space as they all co-occur the most The remaining facet (night time) is 1 away Occurs in multidimensional space (villages equally close, one 1km from all etc.) Multiple weapons Sexual humiliation Victim left naked Night-time Distance = 1 48 Investigative Psychology Smallest Space Analysis 49 In sum Is profiling an art? Is profiling a science? Can it be both? WHY. What are some of the limitations of each? 50 PROFILE YOUR OTHER SERIAL KILLER – discuss in groups, feed back How useful is profiling? 51 Criminal Behaviour CRM203 Workshop 1: Developmental & Biological INSERT YOUR INFO HERE 1 1 Matters arising Essay title vs Essay focus Referencing Forums (look around you…) AoB (start messaging in now) 2 ‹#› 2 Workshop Overview Case study Perspectives and Approaches Factors associated with criminal behaviour How to measure developmental criminal behaviours 3 3 Case Study: John Childhood (0-10): Generally ‘good’, no signs of truancy, no irregular behaviours, seemed to be social (had friends), enjoyed school, played with siblings (2 brothers) Youth (10-13): Changes noticed, mostly minor (vandalism and anti-social behaviours) in the neighbourhood, began hanging around with a ‘tough crowd’ Teenage: Progression of crime, stealing from shops, throwing rocks from bridges (at cars passing beneath), began getting into fights Adult: Continued violence, escalating to fights in local clubs. Arrested: murder with knife, age 20 4 4 Case Study: John What questions do you have about John? What do you need to know? Is this progression typical? Could it be stopped? 5 5 Why study developmental risk factors? The study of developmental risk factors offers potential strategies for early intervention. One of the frustrating aspects of criminology generally is that most of our data is correlational This means that we have limited cause and effect data. For instance, how can you prove poor parenting causes crime? How can you show the effects of peer group on crime? 6 6 Cumulative Risk Model NOTE: Systems Approach A number of risk factors build towards a criminal career development Predicts negative emotional and mental health outcomes Focus on harmful environmental, psychological, and social influences Emphasises identification of children confronted by multiple risk factors as priority for intervention Age (life history) Number of risks As risks increase across life so does the chance of being a criminal… (but is it additive?) 7 7 Developmental Cascade Model NOTE: Systems Approach (again) AKA ‘Dynamic Cascade Model’ Interactive approach – between risk factors Also, individual differences taken into account Factor A Factor B Factor C Crime 8 This is ‘standard’ Psychology -and is not very good… at all! 8 What are the ‘factors’ Multiple (more than listed here) Broadly: Social, Familial/parenting, Psychological REMEMBER: they interact 9 9 Social I: SES Socio-Economic Status (SES) Poverty and crime = closely correlated (especially violent crime) BUT, this is correlational The overwhelming majority of low SES are not offenders What does this mean? How do poverty and crime interact? 10 10 Social II: Peer Rejection Not all peer rejection is a risk factor (i.e., Individuals with ASD –heightened peer rejection, but decreased risk of crime) Peer rejection based on aggression appears to be a significant risk factor 11 11 Social III: Anti-Social Peers Social Learning Theory – plus conformity, influence, and later indoctrination/radicalisation Can stem from rejection – rejected individuals group together… 12 12 Social IV: School Problems In addition to the bullying issues, truancy, failure, being held back, and poor reading skills (i.e., academic failure) are predictors Note the importance here of parenting 13 13 Social IV: School Problems In addition to the bullying issues, truancy, failure, being held back, and poor reading skills (i.e., academic failure) are predictors Note the importance here of parenting 14 14 Familial / Parenting Family variables are consistently found to be predictors Parenting including poor supervision/ monitoring; erratic, non-contingent; harsh rejection; low involvement; punitive discipline without reasoning. Other factors include disruption, criminality, size. Strong link between family violence and subsequent violence 15 15 Familial / Parenting Family dysfunction is a very stable and strong predictor. Includes criminality, family violence, alcohol and other drug (AOD) problems, abuse and neglect Other factors include disruption and family size. Strong link between family violence and subsequent violence Adverse childhood experiences are also risk factors and are essentially familial 16 16 Adverse Childhood Experiences ACEs are associated with a wide range of health and well-being problems including criminal behaviour Physical abuse Sexual abuse Emotional abuse Physical neglect Emotional neglect Intimate partner violence Mother treated violently Substance misuse within household Household mental illness Parental separation or divorce Incarcerated household member …. 17 17 Psychological In addition to the social and familial factors intra-individual factors have also been identified Attachment is a factor but with the caveat that it is likely that it is not directly linked but operates through other factors Multiple Psychological Factors Empathy Developmental Disorders Intelligence 18 18 Psychological: Empathy Empathy is a problematic concept Entails emotional and cognitive empathy Absence of emotional empathy seems to be a risk factor Links to animal cruelty… Again, operates through other variables BEWARE: talking about ‘psychopathy’ (in relation to empathy)… 19 19 Psychological: Developmental disorders Hyperactivity, impulsivity, attention deficit is a predictor As you will note, impulsivity is one of the major personality characteristics of Life Course Persistent (LCP) criminals It is likely to be in part a biological/genetic predisposition compounded by environmental circumstances 20 20 Psychological: Intelligence Low intelligence is predictive. May be due to subsequent school failure & lack of attainment & isolation that is, a socialisation process. Alternatively, may be related to poor abstract reasoning (necessary for impulse control, consequential thinking, planning & possibly empathy) 21 21 Bartol & Bartol: Table 2-3 Social Parental/Familial Psychological Poverty Single-parent household Lack of empathy Early peer rejection Permissive or lax parenting Attachment disorder Association with anti-social peers Minimal parental monitoring Animal cruelty Inadequate pre-school child care Parental psychopathology Cognitive / Language deficits Inadequate after-school child care Abuse Low IQ Academic Failure Domestic violence / substance abuse ADHD etc. Anti-social siblings Beware biological issues (see next week!) 22 22 HINT: this is a good chance to ask me anything 23 23 How do we measure development? 24 24 Longitudinal studies Longitudinal research is also known as the criminal careers approach. Tries to link human development sequences to the development of criminal behaviour.  Tries to find predictors or behaviours which might predict criminal behaviour. These behaviours might be criminal, anti-social or neither. 25 25 Criminal Careers We now understand that there are different factors which operate on: Onset Persistence Escalation Desistance 26 26 Life Course Persistent The longitudinal research has demonstrated that criminal conduct is evident in early life, that these individuals account for a substantial amount of crime, that they have a long criminal career and that there are very few late entrants These individuals have been described as LCP as opposed to the Adolescent Limited offenders who will stop offending after early adulthood. We are interested in the LCP offenders 27 27 New methods for measuring life course / history of criminals 28 28 Crime Script Analysis Behaviour Sequence Analysis 29 29 Crime Script Analysis Comes from ‘Script Analysis’ in Cognitive Psychology How do you navigate a restaurant? 30 30 Crime Script Analysis In the same way we have ‘restaurant’ scripts, criminals have ‘crime’ scripts… 31 31 Crime Script Analysis These can be applied to specific crimes (i.e., bombings, rape, homicide), Examining active shooter events through the rational choice perspective and crime script analysis (Osborne & Capellan, 2017) Pathways in Crime… (Keatley, 2018); 32 32 Crime Script Analysis … or they can be applied to life history events and risk factors Understanding school shootings with crime script analysis (Keatley, Mcgurk, & Allely, 2019). NOTE: this was my 2nd year student!!! 33 33 Crime Script Analysis Behaviour Sequence Analysis 34 34 Behaviour Sequence Analysis (BSA) More statistical (sorry) BUT BETTER (yippee) 35 35 Behaviour Sequence Analysis (BSA) Episode (i.e., murder, rape, terrorism etc.) Parse the episode into discrete behaviours/events – YOU define Code behaviours (e.g., A, B, C…) We are interested in transitions between behaviours Analyse sequence of events AB|BC|C D|EF … JK A B C D E F G H I J K 36 36 Behaviour Sequence Analysis (BSA) 37 37 Behaviour Sequence Analysis (BSA) 38 38 Behaviour Sequence Analysis (BSA) Typologies Behaviours Childhood abuse Keatley, Marono, & Clarke (2019) NOTE: Abbie started publishing in her first year! She now has ~5+ papers! 39 39 40 40 Temporal Analyses There are more complex forms (i.e., T-Pattern Analysis) Very useful (especially in applied cases!) I’m very keen to collaborate with students! (remember: I want you to improve academia) 41 41 BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER Various risk factors have been identified The problem is that many of these factors are highly inter-correlated so it is difficult to know which factors might be causative At this stage we do have information on the factors but not on if or how they are causal and how they might be interacting The up side is that we can intervene at the primary level and this does have an effect Methods like BSA can show ‘attractors’ / ‘absorbing point’ to intervene and break the flow. 42 42 Criminal Behaviour CRM203 Biological Factors 43 Case Study: Hadden Clark AKA: the cross dressing cannibal Serial Killer Michelle Dorr (age 6) -1986 Laura Houghteling (age 23) - 1992 Early life abuse (see previous week) So, why the biological factor? 44 Case Study: The Clarks Bradfield Clark Jailed in 1985 for killing co-worker Trish Mak Invited her over for dinner (while partner was out of town) Brutally beat her, and ate parts of her Similar Developmental background Similar Biological background 45 Questions? How much of their behaviours stem from developmental factors? How much of their behaviours stem from biological factors? How would you study this? What methods would you use? Nature Vs Nurture 46 Genetic Theories Earliest positivist explanations of crime suggested a distinct biological/genetic basis to crime  Social Darwinism became a very popular social theory Influenced eugenics If people are ‘born’ bad – what does this mean for treatment and intervention? Minority report? 47 Genetics vs Biology Genetic disposition or predisposition but also Acquired deficits (birth trauma, other head injuries, abuse) and poisons causing permanent damage (heavy metal poisoning) Transient biochemical problems (drugs, hormone imbalances) 48 Genetics Position Biology implicated in violence Biological basis could be acquired or genetic or combination Genetic predisposition but to general offending Strong interaction effect 49 Genetics Position Some evidence to suggest certain types of genetic abnormalities are related to criminal behaviour (the XYY syndrome) but the number of this genetic abnormality (found in less than .3\% of the pop.) makes it a marginal area of consideration. Generally, polygenetic nature and function yet to be reliably explained. PLEASE NOTE: ‘selfish gene’ does not mean ‘selfish people’. There is NO ‘gene for…’ Note: this is also where ‘meme’ comes from! 50 Genetics Position The nature of the genetic effect is difficult to determine: It is either: a predisposition to act in a manner likely to lead to criminal activity; or occurs through an intervening process. For example, arguments that suggest that there is a difference in cortical control If genes ‘code’ for the blanket, try changing just one crease – Everything is inter-connected 51 Genetics Position In sum: Most biosocial scientists would claim that there is some biological predisposition to crime; and that genetic predisposition can be overcome by some environmental factors. Not a single gene Crime is not genetically determined Genetic research cannot explain individual criminality Genetic predisposition does not means determinism Genetic studies need to address environmental impact 52 Research Strategies The fundamental proposition of the biological approach is that behaviour is, in part, determined by genetic influences.  An alternative (but not inconsistent) proposition is that behaviour is, in part, determined by biological influences.   The aim of this research is to demonstrate either a genetic or biological basis to criminal behaviour. Is this even possible? 53 Lombroso’s work Three classes: Born criminals – atavistic reversions – an evolutionary perspective Insane – a commonly held belief that only an insane person could commit some of the horrific offences Criminaloids – no special features but has criminogenic needs 54 Lombroso’s work Was discredited relatively quickly Important because he tried to apply scientific method used clinical data recognised multi-factorial explanation 55 Body types… Sheldon’s (1949) Theory of Body types Somatotyping Research consistently points to both juvenile and adult offenders having more mesomorphic body types (muscular) and more mesomorph – endomorph type (muscular & fat) as opposed to the ectomorph types (slight & thin) Identify the argument for a biological basis to crime (and not the counter) 56 Body types… Sheldon’s (1949) Theory of Body types Endomorph: heavy with short arms and legs. Relatively non-criminal Mesomorph: athletic and muscular, tend to be aggressive and apt to commit violent crimes Ectomorph: thin, introverted, overly sensitive DISCREDITED! 57 Physiological factors I A variety of physiological indices have been found to correlate with criminal behaviour Toxins – see effects of lead Alcohol and other drugs Neurotransmitters Hormones including testosterone Autononomic Nervous System activity (~fight or flight) 58 Physiological factors II A variety of physiological indices have been found to correlate with criminal behaviour Heart Rate & Criminality  EEG Patterns and Criminality  Hypoglycaemia and Criminality  Hyperactivity  Hemisphere Functioning and Criminality BEWARE THIS PATH JUNK SCIENCE LAYS AHEAD 59 HINT: this is a good chance to ask me anything 60 How do we measure (biological) development? 61 NeuroPsychology Recent advances in neuroimaging have led to research examining different brain behaviours and their relationship with criminal behaviour This research points to the importance of brain plasticity – that is there is an interaction between gene and environment on behaviour It shows that environmental factors impact on brain development 62 Brain Plasticity We now understand that there is considerable interaction between brain development and environmental factors We also understand that there are negative environments which impact on the development of relevant parts of the brain; and conversely positive environments which impact on the brain. For example the following impact on the developing brain In-utero experiences – lead and alcohol Birth complications increased risk especially with other psychosocial factors Early trauma such as attachment and victimisation 63 Neuropsychological factors I There appears to be two areas of the brain which are particularly relevant to the development of criminal behaviour. The frontal lobe is important for organising thought, planning, self regulation, sustained attention, abstract decision making, self-regulation and inhibition and thus consequential thinking. It is important for impulse control. 64 Neuropsychological factors II The amygdala is important for emotional regulation Emotional regulation refers to emotional recognition, control and direction There are sex differences 65 FAST FORWARD When we examine psychopathy you will note there are key dimensions: Empathy, callous, unemotional Poor impulse control The amygdala is critical for emotional regulation The frontal cortex is important for impulse control 66 Gene studies The previous studies indicate that criminal behaviour and certain physiological characteristics are linked but causality is difficult to determine and genetic causality is even more difficult to determine The following research strategies are aimed at determining a clear gene/behaviour relationship 67 Family studies Identifies the conviction rates for parents and children. And siblings?? High correlations between criminal father and criminal sons compared to criminal behaviour of sons of non-criminal fathers. Some studies have tried to control for environment but this is considered practically impossible. Arguments and counter-arguments? 68 Twin studies Dizygotic Twins Fraternal Two different eggs Genetically as different as non-twin siblings Monozygotic Twins Identical Same egg Share same genes Why important? 69 Twin studies Assumption: monozygotic and dizygotic twins have same environment but different genes.   Concordance rates: probability of one twin being criminal it the other is also. RESULTS: Average concordance rate for MZ is 51.5\% and for DZ 20.6\%. For most recent studies 31\% v 12.9\%. 70 Adoption studies These studies try to tease out genes and environment by examining criminal behaviour of children (mostly boys) reared by non familial parents. You compare criminality of biological parents (ie criminal non-criminal) with criminality of adopted parent and criminality of child. Results consistently point to genetic predisposition. EVALUATE ADOPTION STUDIES… 71 In sum Overall, evidence points to a genetic predisposition to crime. There may also be a separate biological process occurring. While no one study is conclusive, divergent studies from different cultures all pointing in the same direction are difficult to dismiss. The predisposition shows most strongly in adoption studies to be for property crime and not violent crime. There is probably an interaction effect with genes and environment. Greater criminality is found when both operate and this is greater than their mere addition. This is evident in gene, brain plasticity and domestic violence. 72 Discussion Point Now you know about developmental and biological factors Can we predict criminal behaviour? Is it based on environment? Is it based on biological? Is it based on the limitations of our methods? Are the Clarks the norm, or the exception? Are the Krays the norm, or the exception? Questions? (this is it for background theory, from here it gets more applied…) 73 Criminal Behaviour CRM203 Aggression ‹#› 1 Content Definitional issues Theoretical Perspectives Biological Perspectives Cognitive Perspectives Media Violence ‹#› 2 Definition Many definitional problems Complexity is the difficulty And the violence–aggression distinction Is aggression violent? Is violence aggressive? What about different types of aggression and violence? (verbal, physical, passive etc.) ‹#› 3 Definition Aggression is a specific type of social interaction in which one person (the perpetrator or aggressor) acts with the intent to harm another Note: Don’t be passive listeners Intent? Harm? BRACE YOURSELF SHOCKING IMAGE FOLLOWING ‹#› 4 What sorts of harm? Tedeschi and Felson (1994) proposed there are four main types of harm that can underpin grievances: physical harm (injury, pain, or the threat of); material damage (loss of goods or services); psychological harm (lack of respect, fairness or equality); political harm (violation of rights and freedoms by the state or organisations) ‹#› 5 Thus Needs to be at least two players and in some cases more The attributes of those involved in aggression are critical to the observation of aggression. The social class, gender, age, setting and nature of the relationship are critical to the perception.  Aggression is a social judgment Reaction to aggression is a social judgement ‹#› 6 Note Actual violence is not necessary for an act to be aggressive.   Not all aggression results in social disapproval e.g., an aggressive selling technique. Is armed robbery aggressive, or violent or both or neither? ‹#› 7 Dimensions of Aggression Direct/Indirect Active/Passive Physical/Non-physical Hostile (anger) versus Instrumental (goal oriented) Now a continuum from controlled or planned at one end to reactive and impulsive at the other (~psychopathy?) ‹#› 8 Dimensions of Aggression Proactive Aggression purposeful, instrumental, goal-directed linked to reward and punishment processing Primary psychopathy Reactive Aggression response to anger, provocation or threat linked to basic threat circuitry (FFFS) and regulatory systems (Blair et al., 2005; Blair & Cipolotti, 2000) Secondary psychopathy (Reidy et al., 2007; Cima & Raine, 2009) ‹#› 9 So aggression can be… motivated by anger (from extreme rage to mild annoyance) or by some calculated thought that someone needs to be harmed to meet some objective deliberate, hostile, active and physical (and may be criminal) accidental, instrumental (in protecting oneself), passive or non-physical (and non-criminal) ‹#› 10 Explaining aggression Theories focus on: Biological, instinctive or evolutionary basis versus Socially learnt or cognitive basis – the thoughts, feelings, behaviour interactions ‹#› 11 Psychodynamic Theory Two basic and fundamental drives: eros and thanatos - the drive to survive and procreate and the drive to conquer or subdue others. Natural build up of aggressive impulses (thanatos), need regular discharging, if not reaches dangerous levels and may explode (or become internalised) – the hydraulic explosion Aggression viewed as an explosion of pent up frustration or anger.  Over control of aggression leads to psychological problems  Discharge of aggression through catharsis: direct or vicarious (thus, theoretically, watching violence leads to a reduction in active violence). Links to frustration-aggression hypothesis (coming later) ‹#› 12 Psychodynamic Theory Assumed that acting out aggression in a manner that does not result in harm to others is a positive action since it leads to the release of pent up frustration. But evidence points to catharsis leading to an increase in violence (does it?) ‹#› 13 Ethological Approach The theory is largely evolutionary idea that man needs to be aggressive because of a poor design feature – no claws or sharp teeth. So why was humanity successful? Because: We are aggressive And have opposable thumbs – just like koalas And make tools And talk And think ‹#› 14 Ethological Approach Programming Animals (particularly males) biologically programmed to fight over resources Hydraulic model In humans, emotional or instinctive pressures, and release is aggression (overlaps Freud’s psychodynamic) Ritualization Development of rituals, stylized actions, leading to symbolic / function of communication ‹#› 15 Ethological Approach Game theory: Hawk-Dove ‹#› 16 Biological Theories At this stage of limited value because they do not sufficiently explain onset, maintenance, desistence etc As noted psycho-dynamic interventions based on catharsis can increase violence. Why? ‹#› 17 Frustration-Aggression Frustration-aggression hypothesis now the major explanation Suggests that aggression is an elicited drive Aggression is a follow-on from frustration That is, aggression is a drive state that is elicited from our interactions with the world The drive is based on frustration Originally: frustrating a goal leads to aggression ‹#› 18 Cusp Catastrophe Model For everyone that loves Chaos Theory Butterfly effect (Sensitive Dependence on initial conditions) Attractors Bifurcation Hysteresis ‹#› 19 Re-formulation Blocking a goal leads to frustration Frustration leads to anger Anger pre-disposes aggression Aggressive acts are dependent upon interpretations, values and repertoires of the individual (your thoughts) and stimuli ‹#› 20 Real World Case Study: INCELs Involuntary-Celibates (online) subculture – defined themselves as unable to find romantic/sexual partners. Desire a partner. Forums characterised by resentment, misanthropy, self-pity, self-loathing, misogyny, racism. Can foster/facilitate violence against sexually active people Growing number of mass murder attacks perpetrated by individuals with INCEL background – most notably Elliot Rodger – Isla Vista attack. ‹#› 21 Research shows The greater the magnitude of the frustration the greater the aggression. The greater the degree of interference, the greater the aggression. Arbitrary frustration increases aggression. Unexpected frustration increases aggression The aggression may be directed at the source or may be displaced to other more convenient targets which are somehow related to or represent the obstacle. Aggression occurs only with the appropriate stimulus Aggression is likely to occur if frustration is intentional. Aggression is more likely to occur if frustration is aversive. ‹#› 22 Reflective-Impulsive Model ‹#› 23 Think about ‘priming’ or suggestion Spreading Activation Model ‹#› 24 Implicit Aggression Reflective-Impulsive model Wheels Car Drive Traffic Anger Bicycle Round Round-abouts Reflective (questionnaires) Higher self-control = lower verbal, physical, anger, hostility aggression scores in males and females Impulsive (implicit) Higher self-control = lower verbal, physical, anger aggression scores in males and females ‹#› 25 Social Learning Theories These theories are integrated theories based on the feelings, thoughts and behaviour model of human behaviour. Three aspects to understanding aggression: the acquisition of aggressive behaviour; the process of instigation of aggression; and the conditions which maintain aggression ‹#› 26 Social Learning Theories In social learning theory, aggressive behaviour is learnt vicariously and maintained by the reinforcements which are contingent upon its display. Vicariously means by observing models ‹#› 27 Social Learning Theories: 5 monkeys ‹#› 28 Learning Aggression aggression is observed – you see role models engaging in aggression; aggression is reinforced – your role model is rewarded for their aggression and/or your own aggression is rewarded; the individual has been subjected to aggression – you learn its power (and this may stop you from being aggressive). Think about this in terms of childhood development in homes … aggressive parents… etc. ‹#› 29 Role and nature of models Major models: Family – aggressive families produce aggressive children Peers Symbolic models ‹#› 30 How does modelling work? Aggressive behaviour is learned through modelling. Key factors are: the importance of the model; the effect of the model’s behaviour; other behaviours which condone or condemn aggression. ‹#› 31 HINT: this is a good chance to ask me anything ‹#› 32 Maintaining aggression Once aggressive behaviour is acquired how is it maintained? By its consequences – as with all behaviours the more aggression is reinforced the more it is maintained Stimulus discrimination means learning to exhibit behaviours in different situations – thus people learn to exhibit aggression under different stimuli. Aggressive people have less stimulus discrimination ‹#› 33 Maintaining aggression Cognitive processes or how you think about aggression: Role of values or cognitive scripts –endorsing aggression or minimising harm Attributions of hostile intent Scripts endorsing particular styles of responding ‹#› 34 General Aggression Model Anderson & Bushman (2018) ‹#› 35 General Aggression Model Anderson & Bushman (2018) ‹#› 36 Determinants of Aggression Other research has focussed on stimuli which precede aggression. This is not necessarily theoretical but it is consistent with learning theory based on ABC Antecedent-Behaviour- Consequence It recognises that many behaviours are controlled by events that occur before the behaviour ‹#› 37 Some Determinants provocation exposure to aggressive models orders from an authority drugs —those that reduce inhibitions (such as alcohol) and those that heighten arousal levels (such as amphetamines) but not a simple relationship gender aggressive cues eg weapons displays of aggression changing the environment noise - induces stress which may induce aggression heat but unclear population density but only if felt intrusion of personal space physical pain ‹#› 38 Situational Precipitators Prof. Richard Wortley (Head of UCL Crime Science) ‹#› 39 Situational Precipitators Prof. Richard Wortley (Head of UCL Crime Science) Prompts: Aspects of the immediate environment that bring to the surface thoughts, feelings, desires that may be dormant Pressures: Situations exert pressure on individuals to perform inappropriate behaviours Permissions: situational factors can help distort moral reasoning processes Provocations: Situations can create stress and/or provoke antisocial responses, particularly aggression ‹#› 40 BSA and Aggression ‹#› 41 Grievance escalation When does aggression occur? When frustrated And you consider aggression an acceptable response Luckenbill and Doyle suggest a three stage model ‹#› 42 3 stage model Naming: Grievances develop when one party (the victim) recognises that another party (victimiser) has caused harm. Furthermore, it is necessary that the victim holds the victimiser accountable for their “bad behaviour”. Claiming: The transformation of the grievance into a demand for reparation. If acceptable to the victim then the dispute ends. If not it escalates to Aggression. Naming Claiming AGGRESSION ‹#› 43 Controlling aggression In terms of controlling aggression, the traditional threat of punishment does not seem very useful in most situations and may backfire as it is often seen as a provocation - a further frustration. Punishment also suggests that the solution to conflict is the application of force, which is counterproductive since it is the wrong sort of behaviour to model. ‹#› 44 Media and violence However you measure it, there is no doubt that we are saturated with violence in the media.   Does it matter?   Some evidence indicates long term effects of violence exposure with increases in aggressive behaviours, thoughts and feelings and decreases in niceness ‹#› 45 Media and violence There is sound correlational evidence for a contagion effect for violence, including self harm Makes sense form a social learning perspective because you Observe aggression and See aggression rewarded But what if the models you identify with are not the media ones? Do we engage in stimulus discrimination? Or State dependent learning?   ‹#› 46 Media and violence ‹#› 47 Media and violence ‹#› 48 In sum Aggression is central to many crimes But what is aggression? How do we measure / quantify aggression? If we cannot accurately define and quantify it, how can we hope to understand/treat it? ‹#› 49 Criminal Behaviour CRM203 Workshop 2: Nonverbal Behaviour Please remember to engage on the LMS forums 1 Questions before we begin Is body language a science? Should body language be used in interrogations (i.e., Behavioural Analysis Interview of the Reid Technique) If it is not a science, should we make it one? Is statement analysis a science? Should it be allowed in the judicial system? If it’s not a science, should we make it one? 2 Let’s play a game… Split into smaller groups (or elect someone to take over the screen, or the lecturer leads this) The speaker makes 5 statements about themselves 1 of the statements must be a lie WHICH IS THE LIE? (pay attention, then make notes on why you think that) 3 Background Some background – essentially to show there is some ‘science’ to body language… but there’s a lot of art, too 4 Lecture Overview The Science of Body Language The Art of Body language Lie detection Statement Analysis 5 Science vs Art Art Science 6 The scientific method Experimental I’m going to suggest that ‘science’ has it backwards when it comes to body language. Too often, we try to ‘reduce’ the complex world to simple variables in a lab. On top of this, we test ‘participants’ (students, usually tired and disinterested). Is it any wonder that results do not replicate reality? 7 The scientific method PNAS: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Example of a VERY high level publication, PNAS is very high impact factor, widely respected. Yet look at the stimuli they used. Can we really infer anything about the real world from this? And if we cannot, then what use are we in the real world? 8 The woes of research and application Highly motivated liar – stakes high if caught Highly motivated assessor Poorly motivated assessor Good lie detection Poor lie detection Poorly motivated liar – stakes low if caught Highly motivated assessor Poorly motivated assessor Poor lie detection Poor lie detection If studies are not based on real people, who face real consequences from lying… how ‘good’ are they? 9 The Art… What is NonVerbal Communication (NVC) Eyes Face Body Remember Attempting to read everything about someone from one tell, is like trying to reach a destination with one signpost! This makes scholars and academics scared. They see art and immediately want to defend themselves as scientists – in doing so, they may alienate themselves from the very thing they wish to study 10 Nonverbal Communication Facial expressions Tone of voice Movement Appearance Eye contact Gestures Posture 11 Sales [VALUE] NVC Verbal 0.7 0.3 The eyes… Gaze behaviour Accessing directions Lies 12 Accessing Behaviours Myth vs Reality? Left is Lying Right is Recalled Visual Auditory Feelings Visual Auditory Feelings Accessing behaviours are widely regarded as ‘hocus pocus’ and not real, and in the vast majority of cases this appears true.. Of course, “the vast majority of cases” involves students in labs… whether or to what degree a person exhibits accessing cues may be an individual difference (akin to some people cracking knuckles, or shuffling hands, or tapping their feet). SPEND 10minutes going back through your videos of liars, and see if you can catch their eye moments. If you cannot, then find videos online (of real criminals!) and focus on their eyes. IF YOU DON’T HAVE A VIDEO OF A LIAR YET, SHARE SOMEONE ELSES, and/or find one 13 Try it yourself Watch through videos of real criminals lying See if you can spot some of the ‘tells’ 14 The face Emotions Micro-expressions / slips 15 The face Facial expressions portray emotions Universal? New Guinea, 1968, locals read a story and asked to express emotions… American students asked to interpret expressions… Happiness Sadness Anger Disgust 16 The face Joe is an ex-FBI agent, and a good friend. We’ve published papers together 17 Lie to me Microexpressions This receives a lot of bad publicity (I too have written papers against this). For the most part, microexpressions are useless in applied, daily terms- because we cannot see them.. But.. They’re just another indicator, another tool – and should not be entirely ignored, always 18 1  19 2  20 1  21 2  22 1  23 2  24 1  25 2  26 Microexpression ‘science’ Over 50 experts in body language came together to write an article on the state of the discipline. 27 The other case has been removed (it will be posted in future lectures….) “Someone (broke in and) murdered our daughter” 28 The Body Congruence is key If you want someone to agree – nod your head 29 The Body Comforters / manipulators REMEMBER CONTEXT 30 The Body Comforters / manipulators 31 The Body Comforters / manipulators 32 33 Lie Detection 34 Lie Detection Individual differences (Ekman et al., 1999) NO SINGLE INDICATOR Need baseline behaviour 35 Lie Detection Problems in detecting lies: Monitoring all aspects of what a possible liar is doing – verbal and nonverbal Context: comforters/manipulators = lying or anxiety? Emotion can be misread Timing is important (could they plan? Are they trained? Are they natural?) 36 Lie Detection Tells (false emotion): Asymmetrical facial indicators (Chirality) Negative emotions without sweating, change in breathing, or manipulators = lies (mostly) Emotional expression should match verbal expression Fear/sadness = forehead and eyebrows (missing = false) Onset not too abrupt Happiness needs Duchenne lines 37 Time to test you… President clinton Was Clinton lying? Statement Analysis “I did not have sexual relations…” “I never told anybody to lie, not a single time, never” “These allegations are false” None of these are lies IT’S NOT ALL ABOUT BODY LANGUAGE! The important thing to remember about body language research, is that if the individual is not lying (or if they honestly believe their lie), then their body language will NOT show any signs of deception! 43 Statement Analysis January 21st, 1998; PBSs News Hour Lehrer: “You had no sexual relationship with this young woman?” Clinton: “There is not a sexual relationship – that is accurate” 44 It’s not all about the body… The important thing to remember about body language research, is that if the individual is not lying (or if they honestly believe their lie), then their body language will NOT show any signs of deception! 45 Statement Analysis The basics 46 Statement Analysis Most people try to avoid lying (even/especially guilty people) Why lie (and risk being caught), if you can re-word the truth and avoid it Compare “I am innocent, I did not kill her” to “I’m not guilty, I didn’t do it” 47 Case study: M. S. 48 Statement Analysis Background 40 year old lady (MS), mental age of 12 Statement: elderly male neighbour sexually assaulted her Witnesses said they saw MS entering JBs house; but, they had difficulty believing “cat-loving” JB would do such a thing… Police involved Soon after, witnesses who reported seeing MS enter JB house started receiving threatening letters… all letters claimed to be from ‘friend’ of the suspect, that he (the suspect) did not rape MS At the same time, JB wrote several letters making similar claims 49 Statement Analysis Known 1 “… i was arrested and charged with the rape of MS. I could not believe this as I am and was impotent” Known 2 “… when i was arrested, i was firstly charged with raping MS, stated to the police that i could not rape anyone, as I was impotent, and had been since 1996” 50 Statement Analysis Unknown 1 “The good fortune is JB was able through solicitors, police forensics, and medical experts to prove 100\% that he could not and did not rape or have unlawful sex, through his being Impotent and is and has been for five years or more” Unknown 2 “Neither would have known that JB, was to enter hospital to have tests to prove that he is and was impotent” 51 Statement Analysis TEXT Projecting clause Projected clause K1 I could not believe this as I am and was impotent K2 I could not rape anyone As I was impotent and had been since 1996 U1 JB was able… to prove… that he could not and did not rape through his being impotent and is and has been for five years U2 Neither would know that JB that he is and was impotent 52 Statement Analysis The historical present tense in corpus results and internet searches String Freq was and is 60 is and was 2 am and was 1 was and am 0 String Freq I was and am 155,000 I am and was 20,600 He was and is 174,000 He is and was 21,300 She was and is 55,100 She is and was 727 We were and are 50,300 We are and were 904 They were and are 122,000 They are and were 31,800 53 Verdict? Use this for discussion. If you want to keep the debate going, you could ask what other factors the students would want to know, to better inform the judgement 54 Case: Chris Jerue 55 Statement Analysis Was Chris Jerue lying? September 14th / 15th 1991 Frank Corly found murdered in apartment in Anchorage, Alaska Within hours of finding body, Chris Jerue was a suspect T.H. (female minor), acquaintance of Chris Jerue, explained to police CJs involvement CJ and his friend Lavon S. (male minor) seen riding stolen bicycles from Corly’s home after his murder. Police stopped them at store, found .22 revolver in possession of Lavon, T.H. ran into them at grocery store, cycled spare bike home, and en route CJ admitted to crime. T.H. testimony: CJ has admitted “we shot somebody” Police made T.H. phone CJ and attempt a further confession No admissions by CJ, but did ask T.H. “not to say anything to anyone about it” 56 Statement Analysis Not satisfied with T.H.s call, another friend (Jennifer Wilson) asked to visit CJ, wearing a hidden microphone Jennifer persistently asks “Why did you have to kill him?” CJ states the victim was “a faggot who tried to hit on them” and Lavon S. had a gun and shot him. CJ admits to robbing Corly afterward Jennifer: “I cannot believe you guys killed somebody” CJ: “Hey, he did it, I didn’t do shit” Police arrested CJ and Lavon 57 Statement Analysis Police efforts to get CJ to admit to planning the murder were couched in the verb ‘to know’ “You already knew what you were gonna do when you went back over to the apartment?” “you knew that before you even went back over there, right?” “you knew what you were gonna do before you even got there. Both you and Lavon” 58 Statement Analysis The verb know has several meanings To have understanding of or be acquainted with To have experienced To be acquainted with To be aware of the truth of factuality of To be convinced or certain 59 Statement Analysis But, you can also say “I know that Matt Damon wasn’t right for me”, or, “I know that Rich Froning loves me” Such statements connote more than the dictionary meanings; they indicate predictions, suspicions, or speculations CJs response: “no” “yeah, but I didn’t know he was gonna shoot him though” “we didn’t plan to kill him when we were goin’ over there” Clear denial 60 Statement Analysis Interrogator’s Qs CJs Response 1. You guys intended to go over there and kill him, didn’t you? No, we didn’t plan to kill him at all 2. But it was an understanding and a plan between the two of you for him to do it, right? Yeah 3. You both planned it – before – up to 2 hours before you and Lavon actually shot him, you both planned on shootin ’ him, right? Right 4. Ok, that’s what we thought, and you just had to kill him to rip his stuff off No, we were gonna hold him at gunpoint, that’s what I thought 5. But about 2 hours before he actually shot him is when he changed your mind and decided to shoot him, right? Right 6. Then, if I understand you right, you guys changed your mind from robbin ’ him to shootin ’ him about hours before he actually shot him, right? Yeah, about that, yeah 7. That’s when both of you changed your mind, you both agreed on it at that point, right? Right 61 Statement Analysis At this point, things look bleak for CJ Denied ‘intended’ but agreed on a plan… … but what is ‘it’ CJ jumps back and forth between admitting and denying – why? Q5 – difficult to know what CJ was replying to: “he changed your mind and decided to shoot him” – interpreted as “he changed his mind and decided to shoot him” Evidence for this reading bolstered by officer’s omission of any possessive pronoun at all before ‘decided’. Also unclear who (he or you) “decided to shoot him” 62 Statement Analysis Interrogator’s Qs CJs Response 1. You both intended to kill him No 2. You both planned to do it Yeah 3. You both planned it 2 hours before Lavon shot him Yeah 4. You had to kill him to rob him No 5. Two hours before he changed your mind and decided to shoot him Right 6. You guys changed your mind 2 hours before he shot him Yeah, about that 7. You changed your mind, both agreed on it, at that point Right 63 Statement Analysis Q1 and Q4 focus on ‘kill’ and CJ strongly denies Q2, 3, 7 focus on it and time reference, CJ is affirmative Seems CJ is giving contradictory statements – but careful examination shows otherwise Interrogator: 1 (kill)  no; replace with ‘do it’  yes; do it (time focus)  yes; kill  no; do it (time focus)  yes; do it (time focus)  yes 64 Statement Analysis Q5 is the ‘problem’ sentence “he changed your mind and decided to shoot him” Emphasis on ‘he’, and whatever significance CJ put on ‘changed your mind’ the emphasis of ‘he’ and ‘decided to shoot him’ is indisputable The sentence becomes a complicated “he… decided to shoot him” CJs ‘yes set’ is about the time (2 hours) and that he (Lavon) decided to shoot him 65 Statement Analysis Q6 attempts to clarify this ambiguity “you guys changed your mind” Unfortunately, the “about 2 hours before he actually shot him” –means CJ responded to that part: “yeah, about that, yeah” – more likely to follow a time questions All evidence and advice suggests police ask simple questions, NOT compound, complex questions Q7 rephrases Q6, but according to recency principle (responding to most recent proposition in a sequence), CJ is responding the 2 hours part 66 Statement Analysis CJs responses Yes to time focus Yes to plan to rob (“it”) No to intend to kill 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ??? Sequence of statements 6. You guys changed your mind 2 hours before he shot him Yeah, about that 67 Verdict? Use this for discussion. If you want to keep the debate going, you could ask what other factors the students would want to know, to better inform the judgement 68 Statement Analysis CJ obviously guilt of many things (including robbery, and planning to rob) Clearly not guilty of murder Unclear if he planned to kill CJ was penniless. Prosecution used the interview evidence He was convicted of aiding in the planned murder of Frank Corly 69 Statement Analysis This was a real-world case I am currently working on. This statement was made by the Father (whose young daughter was found murdered 2 days later)… You could ask students to dissect/analyse this 70 BSA and Interrogations 71 Marono et al… 72 Marono, Clarke, Navarro, & Keatley Lying is more than just ‘a tell’ Joe Navarro suggested we need to look at ‘clusters’ of behaviours We took that a step further (with Joe) and looked at the sequences of behaviours, within those clusters, IN REAL CRIMINALS 73 Marono et al… You can follow these around to see the behaviours exhibited as people lie… thicker lines means the ‘transition’ (link) between two behaviours is occurring more than we would expect to see by change. THERE IS STILL LOTS TO DO HERE! 74 Keatley, Marono, & Clarke (2018) We wanted to look at police interrogations… so we went for ‘the big one’ – Brendan Dassey 75 T-Pattern Analysis (Keatley, 2018) This is just to tell students there are other more complex ways of doing these analyses – I will likely create a short 10minute help video for this 76 Now, Evaluate body language and statement analysis research – good? Bad? Split the group in 2 if possible (REMEMBER TO RE-START RECORDING WHEN THEY COME BACK TOGETHER) Consider: Are they useful? Why/why not? Should they be allowed in judicial proceedings (from interview to courts?) why? Why not? Should we be spending time improving the methods (if we cannot ‘get rid’ of them, should we at least be aiming to improve them?) 77 Closing comments Behaviour is extremely hard to predict Behaviour is extremely hard to ‘read’ NEVER just focus on one ‘tell’ NEVER just focus on body language or verbal statements Researchers are moving towards more scientific methods… But it is not a science… (should it be?) It’s a skill, and takes many, many, many…… many hours… 78 Criminal Behaviour CRM203 Workshop 4: Psychopathy & Mental Disorder ‹#› 1 Matters arising MCQ upcoming (more details in future weeks) Remember to have good internet connection There is enough time, but it is time limited Read around the topics (don’t just rely on workshop notes!) ‹#› 2 Workshop Overview Part 1: What is Psychopathy? How to measure psychopathy? Practical implications Part 2: Define the concept of mental disorder or mental illness. Provide an overview of the DSM-V and the diagnoses that are most relevant to criminal behaviour. Define and review issues relating to competency to stand trial. Discuss the prevalence of mental illness in incarcerated populations. Define risk assessment and identify various tests Network Analysis of Drugs/trafficking Rather than me reciting B&B / drug names ‹#› B& B = bartol and bartol - the core textbook. This works as a reminder of what the core textbook is (link back to MCQ!) and it also points out that this course is NOT just a repetition of the textbook. We get to underline why coming to workshops is important, and why it’s more than reading a book etc 3 PSYCHOPATHY ‹#› 4 A confusion of terms… Primary Psychopaths Secondary Psychopaths Dyssocial Psychopaths Sociopath Anti-social Personality Disorder (APD) Dyssocial Personality – ICD10 Life Course Persistent - LCP ‹#› 5 Sociopathy Vs Psychopathy The psychopath is callous, yet charming. He or she will con and manipulate others with charisma and intimidation and can effectively mimic feelings to present as normal to society. The psychopath is organized in their criminal thinking and behavior, and can maintain good emotional and physical control, displaying little to no emotional or autonomic arousal, even under situations that most would find threatening or horrifying. The psychopath is keenly aware that what he or she is doing is wrong, but does not care. Conversely, the sociopath is less organized in his or her demeanor; he or she might be nervous, easily agitated, and quick to display anger. A sociopath is more likely to spontaneously act out in inappropriate ways without thinking through the consequences. Compared to the psychopath, the sociopath will not be able to move through society committing callous crimes as easily, as they can form attachments and often have normal temperaments. . . .“ Kelly McAleer, Psy.D ‹#› 6 Sociopathy Vs Psychopathy ‹#› 7 Psychopaths in the workplace 5 Phase model Entry – charm and social skills to obtain employment; hard to spot; helpful, even benevolent Assessment – weigh up your usefulness: pawn (easily influenced) or patron (protect against attacks) Manipulation – create ‘psychopathic fiction’ – positive info about self, misinformation about others, pawns or patrons used Confrontation – character assassination to maintain agenda Ascension – patron discarded and power claimed by psychopath ‹#› 8 Female Psychopaths… May be more violent to close intimates Use manipulation, flirtation, or coercion instead of physical aggression to achieve control More likely to have been a victim of sexual abuse BUT Equally likely to use drugs and alcohol ‹#› 9 Are you a psychopath? ‹#› This is the Trolley problem. If you want, you can find videos of this – there are some nice ones, or just guide them through it. Even if they already know it, you can discuss and debate the morals of it etc. 10 The proposition There are some individuals “who demonstrate a discernible cluster of psychological, interpersonal and neurological features that distinguish him or her from the general population” (Bartol &Bartol) ‹#› 11 DSM V The requirement of six out of seven trait facets with a resulting broader representation of psychopathic personality traits (e.g., callousness, manipulativeness) provides for a more severe presentation of Antisocial PD that is more reflective of what has always been the target construct for this disorder (e.g., Hare, 1996) However, constraining the DSM-5 conceptualizations to pre-defined conceptual theories of psychopathy likely does not take full advantage of this emerging model in providing psychopathy-relevant trait information. ‹#› 12 DSM V Psychopathy scholars continue to debate a variety of important issues, including (but not limited to) optimal factor structures (e.g., Cooke et al., 2006; Hare & Neumann, 2008), whether antisocial/criminal behavior should be part of the construct (e.g., Skeem & Cooke, 2010; Hare & Neumann, 2010), and the role of fearless-dominance/boldness in psychopathy (e.g., Lilienfeld et al., 2012; Miller & Lynam, 2012). Moreover, scholars also continue to ponder which elements need to be present to constitute psychopathy (or “primary” psychopathy), including whether affective-interpersonal traits (e.g., callousness, deceitfulness, social potency) are sufficient in isolation (Lilienfeld, 1994; Poythress & Hall, 2011) in light of that not all individuals high on psychopathy are impulsive (cf. Hicks et al., 2004; Poythress & Hall, 2011). ‹#› 13 Clinical Description Various historical descriptors based around concepts such as moral insanity, sexual depravity or problems with affect Today we base it on developments from Cleckley’s The Mask of Sanity Which Hare (1970) has formalised into the Psychopathy Check List. This has been revised and is now referred to as the PCL-R. ‹#› 14 Before we begin… Do you all know what factor analysis is? ‹#› This is important for students to know, because it will underpin our understanding of psychopathy. We need to know that it is a statistical approach, and as such there are issues within it. 15 PCL-R Factor 1 Glibness, superficial charm, sociable, outgoing, easy to get on with Grandiose sense of self worth Need for stimulation/excitement, prone to boredom Pathological lying Cunning, manipulative interpersonal skills, often based on charm Lack of remorse or guilt Shallow affect Lack of empathy; callous; unable to love: selfish; egocentric; non-altruistic; non-empathic except as a means of manipulation. The psychopaths inability to feel genuine, meaningful affection for another is absolute“ ‹#› 16 PCL-R Factor 2 Parasitic life style Poor behavioural controls Promiscuous sexual relations Early behaviour problems Lack of realistic, long term goals Impulsivity Irresponsibility Failure to accept responsibility, no insight Many short term-marital relationships Juvenile delinquency Revocation of conditional release Criminal versatility   ‹#› 17 PCL-R PCL-R is scored on a 0 (not present) 1(inconsistently present), 2 (consistently present) Cut off scores vary between 21 to 33 It does have utility as a predictor but it is not the best predictor ‹#› 18 Factor Analysis Two Factor Factor 1 – the empathy factor (emotional make up and responses) Factor 2 – the impulsivity factor (the antisocial traits). This is the better predictor of recidivism. Three Factor Adds the grandiose factor ‹#› 19 Factor Analysis II Four Factors Interpersonal – lying, manipulative Impulsive Affective – empathy and grandiosity Antisocial – poor regulation, criminality ‹#› 20 Factor Analysis II ‹#› 21 Additional Attributes These are sometimes included in descriptions Appears intelligent; often well informed; willing to give views on almost anything (Cleckley suggested above average) Absence of psychotic symptoms Absence of anxiety Egocentric Cool, calm & collected. Able to withstand severe stress ‹#› 22 The issues of treatment Cleckley in particular started the thesis that psychopathy was not treatable The belief that psychopaths do not benefit from treatment is firmly entrenched with some and entirely rejected by others ‹#› 23 The issues of treatment Firstly this assumes the existence of psychopathy Secondly it blames the person for the lack of effective treatment – the treatment worked, it’s a pity the patient died! Thirdly, here is what we know: the PCL-R identifies high risk individuals; these individual are the most entrenched individuals (start earlier etc); entrenched behaviour is the most difficult to shift; entrenched behaviour requires considerable doses of treatment; treatment programs have historically targeted the wrong needs; treatment programs are not sufficiently funded; ‹#› 24 The issues of treatment There are many treatment programmes that have demonstrated effectiveness for high risk offenders but they do not measure psychopathy and do not treat psychopathy These programs focus on criminogenic needs ‹#› 25 ‹#› OPTIONAL IF YOU WANT TO USE THIS 26 Biological explanation A variety of biological indicators have been found in psychopaths There are now a variety of biological explanations ‹#› 27 Hemispheric Dysfunction Hemispheric dysfunction theory suggests left hemisphere is dysfunctional in that it does not provide sufficient control over impulsivity ie poor self regulation. Some suggestion of right hemisphere dysfunction – emotions not felt as strongly. Note these are consistent with the two major dimensions: poor impulse control and indifference to others. ‹#› 28 Executive Function Problems There is evidence that high risk offenders have executive control problems Executive control lies in the pre-frontal cortex and is responsible for organising, planning and inhibition – for consequential thinking This evidence points to pre-frontal lobe damage or dysfunction as a potential explanation for psychopathy ‹#› 29 Amygdala Dysfunction As already noted, the amygdala is critical in emotional processing There is evidence that damage or dysfunction is seen in psychopaths This would explain the lack of emotional responding and would be consistent with the lack of empathy dimension ‹#› 30 ANS Under Arousal Electrical conductance of skin of psychopaths is lower than normals Suggests under-activity of sympathetic or over-activity of parasympathetic nervous system Implication: ANS does not respond to external threat and/or ANS filters information to CNS Thus they tend to have lower levels of anxiety Autonomic Nervous System (regulates the internal organs without conscious recognition or effort) ‹#› 31 ANS Under Arousal Anxiety might be important for avoiding bad behaviour because Bad behaviour leads to punishment which results in anxiety and with pairing bad behaviour leads to anxiety which we avoid. It could explain the non-learning. We avoid bad behaviour because it makes us look bad. Looking bad causes us anxiety. Thus we like to do good to avoid the anxiety/feeling guilty. That is altruistic behaviour avoids anxiety. It could explain the callous trait. ‹#› 32 ANS Under Arousal ANS under arousal also explains the impulsivity/sensation seeking activities of psychopaths. That is, they are under-aroused and seek out arousal. Here’s an observation: many high risk violent offenders describe themselves as “pretty laid back, really”. Why? ‹#› 33 Environmental Factors There is little doubt that environmental factors impact on criminality Poor parenting evidence is very robust There are two explanations for the biological evidence Poor parenting causes the evidence (but this does not explain the genetic evidence) It is a double edged sword: people who have these conditions are poor parents and they pass them onto their children ‹#› 34 Classification Issues Psychopathy is a very powerful negative label, particularly in the UK and North America. It is less significant in Australia. It describes a cluster of attributes which are considered (by some) to be a class. The very first question is whether or not the label has meaning. ‹#› 35 Issues with Classification Problem of labelling. Labels focus our attention on the attributes in common not in distinction. Sometimes, as in psychological classifications, there are greater differences than there are similarities. But are labels necessary for communication, prediction and decision making; especially true for CJS. Does this label add to our understanding? There are few prototypical cases. Most only have some of the attributes of the class. They are more defined by the heterogeneity than their homogeneity. There is considerable variation in psychopathic traits from outright villains to heroes ‹#› 36 Issues with Classification Furthermore, some characteristics of psychopathy are also characteristics of other personality disorders. This makes differential classification/diagnosis very problematic. Dichotomous versus continuous distinction. Difference in kind or difference in degree? Classification systems require reliable criteria, consistency of usage and theoretical relevance to explanation and prediction Hare has attempted to produce a reliable criterion – based on his test! PCL-R is a reliable and valid predictor in some circumstances of recidivism but not the best. ‹#› 37 Issues with Classification The argument goes: high risk offenders are psychopaths. The PCL-R identifies high risk offenders; therefore the PCL-R identifies psychopaths; therefore psychopaths exist!! Risk – again, one of the identification variables is high risk of re-offending. High recidivism is an indication of psychopathy. This is circular since high risk offending is merely high risk offending. ‹#› 38 Issues with Classification Label confusion – term has been changed from sociopath to psychopath to ASPD or APD and there have been changing criteria. Varying degrees of moral overtones - now has strongly pejorative connotations “intra-species predator” Aetiological confusion – causation is unclear (almost totally) Are we dealing with just one condition? ‹#› 39 Psychopathy- in sum Is it a moral judgement or a clinical diagnosis? (does it vary depending on context?) Is it a useful ‘diagnosis’ Is it more harmful than helpful? If we cannot agree on a definition, how can we agree on causes, or outcomes? ‹#› 40 Mental Disorders (and drugs) ‹#› 41 Lecture Overview Define the concept of mental disorder or mental illness. Provide an overview of the DSM-V and the diagnoses that are most relevant to criminal behaviour. Define and review issues relating to competency to stand trial. Discuss the prevalence of mental illness in incarcerated populations. Define risk assessment and identify various tests Network Analysis of Drugs/trafficking Rather than me reciting B&B / drug names ‹#› NOTE: make it clear that I am not suggesting the use of drugs (for clinical reasons) is related to criminal reasons. I am just trying to give students something ‘new’ to think about. A new method, and a relation to criminology. 42 Identification issue Deviation from a statistical norm (statistical abnormality) – IQ, MMPI Deviation from a cultural norm (cultural or value concept of abnormality). Maladjustment - the person does not meet the demands placed upon him/her. (A distress concept - could be normal both culturally and statistically). Disordered - a system thrown into confusion, disarray ‹#› 43 Bartol & Bartol definition A disorder of the mind that is judged by experts to interfere substantially with a person’s ability to cope with life on a daily basis (page 238) The judgment is by experts – this is a clinical versus forensic distinction ‹#› 44 Problems of identification A disorder not an illness Cannot be objectively seen – there are no micro-organisms, lesions or broken bones, furthermore it is likely that there are many “causes” for the same disorder ie diagnosis does not produce aetiology, treatment or prognosis ‹#› 45 Problems of identification Is inferred – it is a subjective evaluation (even if it is dressed in objectivity) of another’s behaviour generally with the aim to control (note historically it wasn’t even behaviourally based)  Radical criminology & anti-psychiatry have argued that both criminal law and psychiatry are part of the same mechanism of control of deviance. ‹#› 46 Diagnosis Diagnostic and Statistical Manual – DSM-V of American Psychiatric Association World Health Organisation International Classification of Diseases ICD–10 Chapter V DSM used in America, ICD-10 used in Europe Both used in Australia ‹#› 47 Crime and Mental Disorder Strong views in society that mental disorder is related to crime probably based on media portrayal and fear  Mentally ill persons act outside normal rules & this might “logically” run to legal rules We believe that some acts are so abhorrent that they could only be done by a person who was insane (although the evil line is gaining momentum). ‹#› 48 Crime and Mental Disorder Are there any categories of mental disorder that are relevant to crime? Relevance means: Increasing risk or causally linked  Criminal responsibility ‹#› 49 Diagnoses relevant to crime Schizophrenia Paranoid disorders Mood disorders Personality disorders – especially APD or Dissocial Personality Disorder (ICD-10) Intellectual disability Substance abuse ‹#› 50 Schizoprenia Severely disturbed – thoughts, feelings or perceptions  Positive categories – excess or distortions (delusions or hallucinations) Negative categories – losses of normal function (emotional & cognitive flattening resulting disorganised speech and behaviour and inappropriate affect) ‹#› 51 Delusions Persecution beliefs common: being tormented, followed, tricked, spied on, or being made fun of. Some people believe that certain gestures, comments, passages from books, newspapers or movies (and so on) are directed specifically at them. ‹#› 52 Hallucinations Perceptual disturbances Auditory most common Command hallucinations critical ‹#› 53 Paranoid Schizophrenia Delusions or hallucinations only and no signs of disorganisation or flattening of emotions Specific themes often of persecution Higher risk of committing a violent offence and/or of hurting themselves Risk is significantly increased in a background of anti-social behaviour especially violence ‹#› NOTE: these have been changed in the latest DSM-V. I recently worked a case with a “paranoid schizophrenic” – might be worth asking students to find/research some cases, and talk about the offender, their behaviour and process etc. Set it as ‘after workshop work’ if you want 54 Paranoid Disorders Delusional disorders with paranoid theme Differential diagnosis problematic but needs to be present for 1 month as opposed to 6 months and is more generally suspicious as opposed to clearly delusional  Increased risk especially in presence of anti-social history ‹#› 55 Mood Disorders The DSM-V identifies a variety of mood disorders Bipolar which is a combination of mania and/or depression Depressive disorders ‹#› 56 Mood Disorders: Depression Depression: includes hopelessness, increased irritability (especially children) Loss of interest or pleasure – don’t care any more Risk is elevated in juveniles and those who think others are better off dead ‹#› 57 Mood Disorders: Mania Abnormally and persistently elevated, expansive, or irritable mood (which may alternate) Poor judgment often leads to activities that are likely to have painful consequences ‹#› 58 Mood Disorders: Mixed Some people have both a Manic Episode and a Major Depressive Episode occurring daily. This is frequently referred to a manic depressive psychosis or bipolar mood disorder.  The swings can occur at very short notice  This condition seems to be related to serious violence which may also involve self harm– ie homicide, especially of loved ones ‹#› 59 Personality Disorders Anti-social personality  Borderline personality disorder – extreme emotionality & impulsivity Narcissistic personality disorder – extreme sense of entitlement ICD-10 different terms ‹#› 60 Anxiety Disorders Appears very similar to heart attack Fear of dying, lose control, have a heart attack or go crazy & the need to flee Not common, probably under-represented in offenders, but Anxiety does occur when in prison ‹#› 61 Intellectual Disability Normal prevalence rate is around 2\% Rates in prisons as high as 10\% Over-represented in violent offences & a risk factor if sexually offending ‹#› 62 Substance Abuse Will deal with this material later, but it is evident that substance abuse and crime have a link. Note and this is a very important note, no causality is being inferred!!!! ‹#› 63 Mental disorder and criminal law Fitness to plea   Not guilty on grounds of insanity Intersection between criminal justice system and mental health system ‹#› 64 Mental unfitness to stand trial Criminal Law (Mentally Impaired Accused) Act ‹#› 65 S9 unable to understand nature of the charge; requirement to plead to the charge or the effect of a plea; purpose of a trial; the right to challenge jurors; ‹#› 66 S9 unable to understand follow the course of the trial; understand the substantial effect of evidence presented by the prosecution in the trial; or unable to properly defend the charge ‹#› 67 Insanity Criminal code S 27 Insanity (1)… not criminally responsible … if at the time of doing the act … (had) a state of mental impairment as to deprive him of capacity to understand what he is doing, or … to control … to know that he ought not to do the act … . (2) … being delusional is not automatic insanity Essentially based on McNaughton rule ‹#› 68 Bartol & Bartol Two Criteria Irrationality: Person was not in control of his or her mental processes at the time of the offense Compulsion: Person was not in control of his or her behavior at the time of the offense And not knowing right from wrong ‹#› 69 Insanity defence Insanity defence generally used very conservatively, diminished responsibility preferred tactic (indeterminacy versus mitigation) Insanity can lead to indefinite detention in prison or hospital ‹#› 70 Mentally Impaired Accused People who have found unfit or insane Detained in Detention centre – juvenile Prison Approved hospital Declared place ‹#› 71 Other Prisoners with serious mental illness (schizophrenia) in acute phase – may be serviced by State Forensic Mental Health Services (SFMHS) Parolees with serious mental illness may be serviced by SFMHS Mental Health Act part 3 – Involuntary Patients ‹#› 72 Mental illness & offenders link What are the strategies? Longitudinal studies – follow a cohort Examine mental illness in offenders/prisoners Examine criminality in mental patients Longitudinal studies are expensive and rare Definitions of disorder always a problem (APD, substance abuse etc) ‹#› 73 Risk Assessment Statistical versus clinical judgement Aim is to identify level of risk Some instruments identify risk factors (HCR 20) Some instruments identify level of risk only (LSI-R) Some instruments identify risk for specific offences (VRAG, SORAG, STATIC 99) ‹#› 74 Summary Mental disorder alone is not a predictor Heterogeneity in mental disorder category Mental disorder (schizophrenia, intellectual disability) increases risk for risky people Mental disorder basis for some offenders ‹#› 75 Key Issues Care/treatment for seriously disordered or protection from serious offenders  What do we do with seriously disordered serious offenders?  Should a person be sentenced on proportionality or on responsibility?  Can diminished responsibility be used to give a person a lower sentence and a higher sentence? Has de-institutionalisation impacted on CJS? ‹#› 76 What does this mean? The law is dichotomous but disorder is continuous – it results in a discontinuous system especially once sentenced. Disorder can be treated or transient for other reasons but a criminal act is not. ‹#› 77 Drugs and networks ‹#› 78 Case Study: Jeffrey MacDonald Aka: Green Beret Killer Accused (and prosecuted) of killing his entire family Wife, 2 children Why? Speculation his diet pills were a factor: Eskatrol Spansule (15mg Dextroamphetamine) (“Speed”) and 7.5mg Prochlorperazine (Compazine) to counteract the excitability of the speed Taking 3-5 pills daily for 3-4 weeks prior Would that be enough to lead to ‘chronic amphetamine psychosis’ Would that explain the murders? Symptoms of cessation? ‘extreme fatigue and mental depression’ Why are we so quick to conclude “stimulants cause homicide” – we wouldn’t say “heroin causes burglaries” ‹#› This is a very interesting case, if students want to learn more, they can read my recent publication: Matrix Forecasting and Behaviour Sequence Analysis: Part of the Timeline Toolkit for Criminal Investigation https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11896-020-09367-1 I’ll upload the pdf 79 Drug trafficking and networks: CSA A. Search customer: walk to spot lone with white male, 30-49 years of age B. Solicit customer: say type of drug(s) for sale when face-to-face 1. Agree on terms: agree to provide 1 gram of cocaine for $50 2. Make exchange: fulfill agreement C. Arrange place/time: tell customer to walk together to nearby place ASAP Start Steps A, B, C are facilitating steps Steps 1, 2 are necessary steps ‹#› If students want to know more about CSA, they can read my school shooter paper, or my recent ‘Timeline Toolkit’ paper (I’ll upload both) 80 Drug trafficking and networks: CSA ‹#› 81 Drug trafficking and networks: CSA ‹#› 82 Drug trafficking and networks: SNA What is (social) Network Analysis Network Analysis: interpreting the relationship between ‘nodes’ (individuals, factors, ‘points of interest’) Relationships: connections between nodes Connections: (influence, interaction, supply) Node (entity, person, system group) Tie / Link (relationship/ connection between 2 nodes) ‹#› 83 What is (social) Network Analysis Drug trafficking and networks: SNA ‹#› 84 What is (social) Network Analysis Drug trafficking and networks: SNA ‹#› 85 Drug trafficking and networks: SNA ‹#› 86 What is (social) Network Analysis Drug trafficking and networks: SNA ‹#› 87 What is (social) Network Analysis Drug trafficking and networks: SNA ‹#› 88 In sum How can these methods help us ‘work’ a cold case? Understanding a script? Networks of connections? Can they be combined? Why do we think that drugs cause crime? ‹#› 89 Criminal Behaviour CRM203 Atypical Homicide ‹#› 1 Content Legal aspects Case studies CyberHomicide Victimology Serial Killers Detection Avoidance/Complex Homicides Terrorism ‹#› 2 Definition ‹#› 3 Legal Points Murder Intend to cause the death of a person (regardless of whether or not they intended to kill the person who was actually killed); or Intend to cause an injury likely to endanger the life of a person; or Cause a death by an act that is done in prosecution of an unlawful purpose and that is likely to endanger human life (regardless of whether or not they intended to hurt anyone). ‹#› 4 Legal Points Manslaughter a person who unlawfully kills a person in circumstances that do not constitute murder, is guilty of manslaughter. THE KEY DIFFERENCE IS ‘INTENT’ ‹#› 5 Actus Reus vs Mens Rea A wrongful deed, guilty act or deed of crime. All crimes have two elements: performing the act (actus reus); and the intent to commit the act (mens rea) The Actus reus is the causing of the death of a human being Mens rea comes from the Latin phrase; Actus non facit reum nisi mens sit rea An act does not make a man guilty unless his mind be also guilty ‹#› 6 Interpretation If the intention to kill or to act in a way that can predictably lead to the death is not proved, one can not be found guilty of the crime of murder because the definition of this crime includes this condition (to be convicted, you need both the mens rea and the actus reus, also known as the psychological and material elements); without the mens rea for murder, the accusation will usually turn into manslaughter, a different but similar crime that does not require the same mens rea. ‹#› 7 REMEMBER: “The difference between a homicide and an assault may simply be the intervention of a bystander, the accuracy of a gun, the weight of a frying pan, the speed of an ambulance or the availability of a trauma centre” (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990, p.34) ‹#› 8 Case study: Michelle Carter “I love you, now die” Michelle Carter and Conrad Roy Wreckless behaviour caused death by suicide. Ruling: ‘Involuntary Manslaughter’ What do you think? ‹#› 9 Digital Homicide Increasing focus on digital crime Dark/deep web is a primary focus (BUT BE WARNED) Research suggests 4 themes: Excessive violence Fatal escalation Crime-related incidents Predatory behaviour ‹#› 10 Victimology Men are more likely to be the perpetrators and victims of homicides (80-90 \% of perpetrators and 60\% of victims) Half of all homicides involve a male offender and a male victim Young people over 16 are at greater risk of becoming a victim than children or older adults: peak age among adults is between 21-25 years Children are a low risk group, but infants under 1 year are at higher risk than any other single year age group ‹#› 11 Victimology Offenders tend to be young with most aged between 18-35 years In male on male homicides, a significant proportion of offenders, victims or both have consumed alcohol, often to excess Men are more likely to be killed by strangers or acquaintances Women are more likely to be killed by spouses, partners, or ex-partners Homicides among unrelated men take the form of confrontational ‘honour contests’ that erupt spontaneously ‹#› 12 Victimology Other male on male killings entail grudge/revenge style homicides where the offender seeks out the victim and commits a planned assault Around 60\% of homicides occur between 8pm and 4am NOTE: Aoristic Timeline Analysis ‹#› 13 Prevention? Is homicide an extreme act of violence that could be prevented? OR Is homicide a distinct phenomenon where the perpetrator fully intends to kill the victim? ‹#› 14 Sexual Homicides Ressler, Burgess, & Douglas interviewed 36 men convicted of sexual homicide to ascertain the underlying causes of the offences, the motivations and the actions within the crimes ‹#› 15 Sexual Homicides Growing up Childhood attributes – eldest sons, normal to superior IQ, fathers employed, mother housewife Social environment Family functioning – parental histories (alcohol/drug abuse, psychiatric disorder); parental criminal history (sexual crimes); parental sexual problems Relationship with parents/siblings – instability of residence, father absent (12 years +), mother dominant parent, negative relationship with male caretaker figures and mother, perceived unfairly treated, no older sibling role model ‹#› 16 Sexual Homicides Formative events History of excessive parental discipline History of abuse and neglect Sexual experiences – witnessing sexual violence, witnessing disturbing sex, sexual injury or disease, sexually stressful events, childhood sexual abuse, voyeurism, pornography, fetishism, rape fantasies, sexual incompetence, sexual aversion, autoerotic practices ‹#› 17 Sexual Homicides Formative events Typologies Behaviours Childhood abuse ‹#› 18 Sexual Homicides Behavioural Indicators Childhood – daydreaming, compulsive masturbation, isolation, chronic lying, enuresis, rebelliousness, nightmares, destroying property, fire setting, stealing, cruelty to children/animals, poor body image Adolescence – assaultive action toward adults, rebelliousness, compulsive masturbation, stealing, daydreaming, isolation, chronic lying, nightmares, poor body image, cruelty to children, destroying property, enuresis, fire setting and cruelty to animals Adulthood – assaultive action toward adults, daydreaming, compulsive masturbation, isolation, rebelliousness, chronic lying, poor body image, stealing and nightmares ‹#› 19 Sexual Homicides Performance Academic Grade repetition Did not complete high school Poor performance in high school Employment (prior to murder) Military Criminal record in military Honourable/general discharge Undesirable/dishonourable/medical discharge ‹#› 20 Sexual Homicides Antecedent Behaviours Pre-crime stress factors Conflict with females Parental conflict Financial problems Employment problems Marital problems Additional stress factors Frame of mind Frustration Hostility and anger Agitation Excitement Internalised distress – nervousness, depression, fear, calm, confusion Precrime planning Precrime actions Increased criminal or violent activities Looking for victims Victim selection Triggering factors ‹#› 21 Sexual Homicides The offence The sexual element of the murder Subtle vs. overt sexual acts Rape-murder Mutilation-murder ‹#› 22 Vulnerability It doesnt matter whether youre selling hotdogs, newspapers or pussy, when you sell it on the street, somebodys going to bash you over the head and try to take it from you.“ Monet, 47yrs, sex worker from California ‹#› 23 Vulnerability “Obviously if you are going to attack a woman, the easiest target is a prostitute. She’ll get willingly into your car…the first she knows about it is when it all goes wrong. Up until then she’s been totally co-operative. There’s no other victim you could find that would do that, [who] is not in some way connected to you… Prostitutes are ideal.” (Vice-squad officer. In Benson, 1998, p.12) ‹#› 24 Serial Murderer Typology Holmes & Holmes (1998) - 5 types of serial murderer Visionary Mission Lust Thrill Power/Control ‹#› 25 Serial Murderer Typology Visionary Acting on voices or visions from Gods, angels, devils Commandments/direction to kill certain individuals (e.g., prostitutes, atheists etc.) Crime Characteristics: Typically leaves chaotic crime scene – scattering belongings, clothing spread around, weapon left in victim, ransacking, bludgeoning ‹#› 26 Serial Murderer Typology Mission Focused on certain group or type of person as ‘unacceptable’ or valueless (and world is better free of them) Crime Characteristics: Murder weapon missing, firearm use, bludgeoning, throat cutting ‹#› 27 Serial Murderer Typology Lust Subcategory of hedonistic killers Process of fulfilling sexual fantasy Sex is the point of the process Crime Characteristics: multiple sex acts, penetration with object, vaginal rape, abdominal mutilation, torture, violence to genitals ‹#› 28 Serial Murderer Typology Thrill Subcategory of hedonistic killers Enjoy process of killing Pleasure and excitement from killing Death deliberately extended (to prolong) Crime Characteristics: Similar to lust (torture, vaginal rape, penetration with objects); Bite marks, manual or ligature strangulation, body covered after death and concealed in isolated spot; Possible burns on victim ‹#› 29 Serial Murderer Typology Power/Control Gratification in killing is that the killer has control Dominance is motive Enjoyment of process leads to prolonging sequence Crime Characteristics: Restraints, torture, gagging, body parts missing, evidence tampered with, decapitation, vaginal rape, ligature strangulation, body concealed ‹#› 30 Quick tip: Keppel & Birnes – Signature Killers ‹#› 31 Case Study: Peter Sutcliffe AKA Yorkshire Ripper 1975-1980 13 Murders, and attacks on a further 7 women Given 20 life sentences ‹#› 32 Case Study: Peter Sutcliffe ‹#› 33 Case Study: Peter Sutcliffe Dear Sir I am sorry I cannot give my name for obvious reasons. I am the Ripper. Ive been dubbed a maniac by the Press but not by you, you call me clever and I am. You and your mates havent a clue that photo in the paper gave me fits and that bit about killing myself, no chance. Ive got things to do. My purpose to rid the streets of them sluts. My one regret is that young lassie McDonald, did not know cause changed routine that nite. Up to number 8 now you say 7 but remember Preston 75, get about you know. You were right I travel a bit. You probably look for me in Sunderland, dont bother, I am not daft, just posted letter there on one of my trips. Not a bad place compared with Chapeltown and Manningham and other places. Warn whores to keep off streets cause I feel it coming on again. Sorry about young lassie. Yours respectfully Jack the Ripper Might write again later I not sure last one really deserved it. Whores getting younger each time. Old slut next time I hope. Huddersfield never again, too small close call last one. ‹#› 34 Case Study: Steve Wright AKA Suffolk Strangler October-December 2006 5 Murders Given life sentences ‹#› 35 Case Study: Steve Wright Gemma Adams, 25, lived in Ipswich and disappeared on 15th November 2006 at about 01.15 - her body was found on 2nd December in a river – she was naked but had not been sexually assaulted Tania Nicol, 19, from Ipswich disappeared on 30th October 2006 and was reported missing on the 1st November. Her body was found on the 8th December in a river and there was no evidence of sexual assault Annette Nicholls, 29, from Ipswich, disappeared on the 5th December 2006 at 21.50 and her body was found on the 12th December, naked but with no evidence of sexual assault Anneli Alderton, 24, was three months pregnant when she went missing on the 3rd December 2006. Her body was found on the 10th December and she had been asphyxiated and was discovered naked but with no sign of sexual assault Paula Clennell, 24, disappeared on 10th December in Ipswich at about 00.20. Her body was found on the 12th December naked but not sexually assaulted. A post mortem revealed that she had been killed by a compression of her throat ‹#› 36 Case Study: Steve Wright Psychological Speculations (‘Profiling’) Keith Ashcroft (forensic psychologist) The murderer is deliberately “taunting” police - the person “probably has some massive grudge against the police force, probably even in Suffolk” and wants to make the police look inadequate Joseph Diaz (criminologist) commented that the fact the bodies were dumped in water suggests that the killer is of above average intelligence, because he knows physical evidence will be washed away Further comment in the Daily Telegraph speculates the killer probably has a dominant mother, and is not in a stable relationship with a woman – possibly a virgin David Canter (Forensic/Investigative Psychologist) comments in The Times: His first murder was likely to be a carefully considered attempt to hide some other crime: killing the victim because she was a crucial witness. ‹#› 37 Detection Avoidance Dr Claire Ferguson’s Area of Expertise Any behaviours offender uses to hide, destroy, or manipulate evidence in order to avoid detection or apprehension by police Forensic Awareness also included CONTEXT IS EVERYTHING Examples: Destroying evidence Disposing of victims body Protecting identity Acting on the victim (posing) Or environment (staging) Securing alibi ‹#› 38 Detection Avoidance ‹#› 39 Detection Avoidance ‹#› 40 Detection Avoidance ‹#› 41 HINT: this is a good chance to ask me anything ‹#› 42 Terrorism Difficult to study (context/situation dependent) Use of force or violence Individuals or groups Directed to civilian population Intended to instil fear A means of coercing political or social change ‹#› 43 Terrorism NOT A MODERN DEVELOPMENT, But B&B claims that globalisation and concomitant ease of travel, commerce and spread of information has made terrorism a modern threat. But the Baader-Meinhof, Che and IRA were operating with considerable threat. ‹#› 44 Terrorism International vs Domestic Distinction is also made between international terrorists and domestic or home grown terrorists but sometimes this can be blurred.   McVeigh was clearly a domestic terrorist   But London 2005 bombers were home grown but related to Islamic terrorists ‹#› 45 Terrorism International vs Domestic The critical issue in this distinction is that historically home grown terrorists have been a much greater threat than international terrorists. See Oklahoma City and Tokyo but also note that Madrid, London and Bali were also home grown.   Some home grown terrorists might be considered to be international because of their international links. ‹#› 46 QUICK TIP Lone-Actor Terrorists (Gill, 2015) UCL Grievance Project (@Grievance_ERC) LATs may have ‘contact’ with others, but effectively work alone Psychological motivations Harder to track Sequential methods used (among many others) ‹#› 47 Keatley & Gill CSA – Lone Actor Terrorists ‹#› 48 Keatley, Forsyth, & Clarke Linguistic Pattern Matching ‹#› 49 Terrorism Categorization Who are the terrorists? Very heterogeneous thus categorisation is very difficult Islamic terrorists: 60\% higher education; 3/4 higher socio-economic status; wide age range; but some were from menial backgrounds with little opportunity  B&B suggests two approaches: classification based on interest of the group and a typology based on motivation of members. ‹#› 50 Terrorism Classifications – interest or group based: Right wing terrorists – nationalistic, anti-global, conspiracy theorists Left wing terrorists – generally aiming at removing disadvantage, discrimination Special interest extremist for example protecting the environment ‹#› 51 Terrorism Typology – offender motivation Rationally motivated – clear, rational, achievable objectives; generally aim for infrastructure damage as opposed to loss of life. Extreme environmental groups (Greenpeace?) fit in this category – instrumental aggression? Psychologically motivated – appears to be a category for individuals who have problems and engage in terrorism – hostile aggression? Culturally motivated – individuals who are responding to a perceived threat to their values, beliefs etc – see Tedeschi and Felson “threats” in aggression lecture ‹#› 52 Terrorism Why join? B&B points out that for the disadvantaged it may represent a form of escape – an alternative to reactive depression or learned helplessness. But given that many are successful and functional why do they join? B&B suggests that it is driven by perceived persecution from outside groups. True for some, eg Palestinian terrorists, Boadicea. But how does that explain Osama Bin Laden, a wealthy Saudi who never experienced any persecution, or the London 2005 bombers who were relatively integrated into British society etc. ‹#› 53 Terrorism Why join? Trying to understand terrorism that is not driven by direct persecution: Start with frustration aggression hypothesis – it is a sound aggression model Identify the frustration – Tedeschi and Felson’s threat to beliefs This may explain a motivation but it doesn’t explain how they join or why they engage in violence. ‹#› 54 Terrorism How do they join? Ever seen an advertisement for ‘terrorist wanted – must be willing to kill self and others’   Can the organisations advertise, recruit etc? In most countries it would be illegal and in any case it would be too easy for anti-terrorists to respond. INTERNET IS MAKING THIS EASIER ‹#› 55 Lavf56.25.101