Discussion - Business Finance
Reflect on the assigned readings for Week 4 and then type a two page paper regarding what you thought was the most important concept(s), method(s), term(s), and/or any other thing that you felt was worthy of your understanding. Define and describe what you thought was worthy of your understanding in half a page, and then explain why you felt it was important, how you will use it, and/or how important it is in managerial economics.
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CHAPTER
12 More Realistic and
Complex Pricing
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● After acquiring a substitute product,
• raise price on both products to eliminate price
competition between them.
• raise price more on the low-margin
(more price elastic demand) product.
• reposition the products so that there is less
substitutability between them.
● After acquiring a complementary product, reduce
price on both products to increase demand for both
products.
● If fixed costs are large relative to marginal costs,
capacity is fixed, and MR > MC at capacity, then set
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2
● If demand is unknown, and the costs of underpricing
are smaller than the costs of over-pricing, then
underprice, on average, and vice-versa.
● If promotional expenditures make demand more
elastic, then reduce price when you promote the
product, and vice-versa.
● Psychological biases suggests “framing” price
changes as gains rather than as losses.
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3
Harry Potter
● When Scholastic Publishing released the final Harry
Potter, sales expectations were through the roof – the
previous HP had sold over 7M copies in the first 24
hours alone.
• Scholastics suggested selling price was $34.99, and they
sold the book to wholesale retailers for $18.99
• Instead of following the advice in chapter six and pricing
the book at the point where the markup equals the inverse
demand elasticity (P-MC)/P = 1/|e|, Barnes and Noble,
Amazon, Costco, and Walmart all priced the book at less
than $20
• These retailers are clearly interested in maximizing profit,
so why were prices so low?
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4
Realistic Pricing
● In this chapter, we move beyond the simple, singleproduct analysis of Chapter 6 to more realistic
settings. In fact, the MR=MC pricing rule applies
only to a single-product firm setting a single price.
For firms that sell multiple products, or those who
use low prices to win new customers, the rule does
not hold.
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5
Pricing schemes
●
We have seen this kind of pricing before, the low price for 3-liter Coke
used merely to attract customers to a grocery store. Whatever the grocery
store lost on 3-liter Cokes, it made up in sales on other items.
●
Amazon was following a similar tactic. By pricing low, Amazon sold over
two million copies of HP.
• Some were new customers, who would purchase books from Amazon in the
future; and some purchased additional items at the same time they purchased
The Deathly Hallows.
• In fact, Amazon estimates that about 1\% of its $2.89 billion second-quarter
revenue was due to added sales from customers who also purchased The
Deathly Hallows.
●
Both the grocery store and the bookstore were pricing where MR < MC,
or equivalently where (P-MC)/P < 1/|e|. They did so because they were
trying to maximize total profit, not profit on their individual product lines.
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6
Pricing commonly owned substitutes
● To price commonly owned products, use marginal analysis
● Discussion: Purchasing a nearby, rival video store
• How does this change the price of video rentals at each store?
• If there were only one store, marginal analysis finds the point where
MR=MC to maximize profits, BUT common ownership of two
substitutes changes the calculation
• Reducing price at one store steals sales from the other
(reduces MR at both)
• To counter the falling MR, raise prices at both stores to
maximize profits
● Consider your product portfolio as a “bundle” of goods
• Demand for a bundle of substitutes is less elastic than demand for the
individual products - less elastic demand implies a higher optimal price
• Raise the price more on the more elastic product (try to push pricesensitive customers to the higher-margin product)
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7
Another option for substitutes
● After acquiring a substitute product, you can
reposition the products so they don’t directly
compete with each other.
● For example, you might want to stock multiple
copies of the most popular videos at one of the stores
(add depth) but stock a wider range of titles (add
breadth) at the other.
● Moving the products farther apart can further
increase profit after acquiring a substitute product.
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8
Pricing commonly owned complements
● Again, use marginal analysis to determine pricing.
● Discussion: Purchasing a parking lot adjacent to video store
• Common ownership means pricing decisions must consider
the effects on movie rentals as well as parking lot use.
• Reducing price at one increases demand at the other, i.e.,
common ownership increases MR at both
● With bigger MR, reduce price (sell more) to maximize
profits
● Again, consider your product portfolio as a “bundle” of goods
• Demand for a bundle of complements is more elastic than
demand for the individual products
• More elastic demand implies a lower optimal price
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9
Revenue or yield management
● Products such as cruise ships, hotels, stadiums, commercial
parking lots, etc. have similar characteristics.
• The costs of building capacity are mostly fixed or sunk
• And, these businesses face capacity constraints
● The first decision for these firms is how much capacity to
build – because this is an extent decision, marginal analysis
can be used.
• Keep adding capacity until LRMR = LRMC
● Once capacity is built, firms make pricing decisions, ignoring
the sunk or fixed costs of building capacity.
• Relevant costs are now short-run MR and MC
• If MR>MC at capacity, price to fill available capacity – because
the capacity is fixed the firm cannot sell more by reducing price.
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10
Revenue management example
●
Example: designing a new hotel
• keep adding rooms to the design plan, as long as LRMR > LRMC
• Suppose that the optimal size is 300 rooms. At the optimal size, annualized
LRMC of building, cleaning, and heating the room is about $400 per day.
●
Once the rooms are built/the costs have been sunk, the hotel’s owners must
decide what to charge for the rooms. Suppose that 90\% of the annualized
LRMC are fixed or sunk and that the relevant marginal cost is just $40 per
day.
●
Since capacity decisions are determined by all costs, and the pricing
decision only by short-run MC, it ’s likely that MR > MC at the capacity of
the hotel. If so, then the hotel’s owner should price to fill capacity (sell all
available rooms).
●
Choose a price that matches expected demand to capacity
• In some industries, like parking lots, stable demand and the daily observation of
realized demand make this relatively easy to do
• In other industries, like cruise ships, this is much more difficult
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11
Revenue or yield management (cont.)
● When demand is difficult to predict, pricing to fill
capacity is also difficult.
● To maximize profits, balance the cost of over-pricing
(lost profit on unsold capacity) against the cost of underpricing (lower margins on capacity sold)
● Optimal price minimizes the expected costs of these two
mistakes.
● In general, if the lost profit from over-pricing (unused
capacity) is bigger than the lost profit from under-pricing
(lower margins), then price lower than would fill
capacity, and vice-versa.
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12
Advertising and promotional pricing
● Combines two of the “Four P’s of marketing,” Pricing and
Promotion
● Promotional spending affects demand in different ways
• Price-related promotions (coupons, end-of-aisle displays, etc.)
tend to make demand more elastic
• If promotion makes demand more elastic, it makes sense to
reduce price concurrently
● Product-related promotions (quality advertising, celebrity
endorsements, etc.) tend to make demand less elastic
• If promotions make demand less elastic, it makes sense to raise
price concurrently
● Caveat: Prices can affect customer perception of quality – i.e.
higher price equals higher quality in the mind of the consumer
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13
Psychological Pricing
● Biases can affect optimal pricing decisions.
• Example: Airline snacks
• In 2008, some airlines began charging for snacks
• It seems like a good idea because those who value an in-flight
snack could buy one and those who didn’t didn’t have to buy.
• Many passengers, though, viewed the change negatively and
changed airlines as a result.
● Research in the field of behavioral economics
says that this reaction was predictable using “prospect
theory”
• The way a decision is framed matters a great deal to the
decisions that consumers make, i.e. consumers feel losses
more than gains – so decisions should be framed in such a
way to highlight a gain not the loss of an in-flight snacks.
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14
Psychological pricing
(cont.)
● Consumers are also very sensitive to fairness.
● Many retailers make deliberate pricing decisions so as not to appear
unfair
• Home Depot didn’t raise prices after Katrina, though demand did
increase; hardware stores don’t increase the price on snow shovels
following a big winter blizzard
• In 2008, when gas prices rose to meet consumer demand, many US
citizens were outraged and heavily criticized oil companies for
profiting “unfairly.”
● To avoid looking unfair, companies must come up with creative
solutions.
• In the music industry, performers set concert ticket prices below the
market price. People buy up the low priced tickets and sell them on
secondary markets, which consumers don’t subject to rules of fairness.
• Often, artists also sell tickets on secondary sites, sharing in the profits
but avoiding the label of “unfair”
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15
Title?
● American Airlines pioneered the development of
sophisticated reservation management systems, launching
SABRE in 1968
● Without overbooking practices like those instituted through
SABRE, AA estimates that 15\% of the seats on sold out
flights would be unused.
● This overbooking process was the first element in
developing a “yield management” system.
● With additional industry changes in the 1970’s, AA moved
to develop a yield management system with the goal of
“selling the right seat to the right customer at the right
time.”
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16
Title continued?
● The yield management system helps determine
• How many seats to allocate initially to each fare category
• How to dynamically adjust this allocation as reservations
come in and the date of the flight approaches.
• Accurate forecast of demand and cancellations are critical
● The complexity of the problem eventually led to the
development in 1988 of an automated system for yield
management, DINAMO. The systems net impact was
estimated be $1.4 billion in additional revenues over a
three year period.
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17
Las Vegas Casinos
● Las Vegas Casinos
• Offer both hotel rooms and gaming
• Prices on rooms are often set at “sub-optimal” levels
• Casinos plan to more than make up for the room profit
shortfall with gaming profits
● Similar to grocery store loss leader concept
• Get people in the door
● Goal is to maximize total profit, not individual
product profit
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18
CHAPTER
11 Foreign Exchange,
Trade, and Bubbles
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● In the market for foreign exchange, the supply of pounds
includes everyone in Britain who wants to buy Icelandic
goods, or invest in Iceland. To do so, they must “sell pounds
to buy krona.” The supply of pounds is also equal to the
demand for krona.
● In the market for foreign exchange, the demand for pounds
includes everyone in Iceland who wants to buy British goods,
or invest in Britain. To do so, they must “sell krona to buy
pounds.” The demand for pounds is also equal to the supply
of krona.
● The so-called “carry trade,” borrowing in foreign currencies
to spend or invest domestically, increases demand for the
domestic currency, appreciating the domestic currency.
However, borrowing in foreign currency to buy imports or
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2
• continued
● Currency devaluations help suppliers because they make
exports less expensive in the foreign currency; but they hurt
consumers because they make imports more expensive in the
domestic currency.
● Once started, expectations about the future play a role in
keeping bubbles going. If buyers expect a future price
increase, they will accelerate their purchases to avoid it.
Similarly, sellers will delay selling to take advantage of it.
● You can potentially identify bubbles by using the
“indifference principle” of Chapter 9 to tell you when market
prices move away from their long-run equilibrium
relationships.
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3
Iceland
● In 2003, Iceland’s three banks borrowed from other banks and
began investing in foreign assets.
• Icelandic banks borrowed as much as they could, as fast as they
could – and used the money to buy as much as they could
● By 2006 it was becoming difficult for Icelandic banks to
borrow. So they began accepting internet deposits – essentially
borrowing money from British residents.
• They offered the highest interest rate available and British
consumers sold pounds to buy krona to deposit in Icelandic
banks.
● The expansion of the financial sector created a domestic
consumption spree – mostly of imports.
• And if Icelandic citizens didn’t have the cash to buy goods, they
simply borrowed (from foreign banks because foreign interest
rates were 3\% versus domestic rates of 15.5\%)
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4
Iceland (continued)
● Normally, gov’t insurance prevents bank runs, but in this
case, Iceland’s deposit guarantees were several times
greater than its entire national income.
● When the British depositors finally became concerned
about repayment, the resulting bank run devastated the
country.
• The krona fell dramatically in value and domestic prices
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