2016 Presidential Campaign - Writing
I will attach the methods, literature review and results section. I want you to compile them and make the flow. then check the sections to be changed according to the professors commentsI will send you the Literature Review, Data and Methods, Assignment 9, Annotated Bibliography for this Research Paper. This assignment needs to have the following. A title page including a title and your name.Starting on a new page, place your introduction. The introduction should provide an interesting context relevant to the research (like an anecdote drawn from current events), basic background information on the question/problem, a clear and concise thesis, and an overview of the paper. Note the importance of the thesis. Papers without a thesis, and therefore without a central argument, will automatically receive an F.After your introduction, you will place your literature review. This section of the paper should include the heading Literature Review in bold type. Section headings should either be centered or left justified. The literature review should be revised consistent with the feedback you received.The next section is labeled Data and Methods. In this section, you will place the revised version of your data and methods section.The next section is labeled Results. This is where you will place the revised version of that section from Assignment 9.The next section is labeled Discussion. This is where you will place the revised version of that section from Assignment 9.Next, you will write the conclusion of your paper. Label the section Conclusion and follow the recommendations from Baglione. Note that your conclusion should address the following:Restate your thesis and assess your thesis based on your findings.Specifically address the question of how well traditional explanations of voting work for the 2016 election.If the traditional explanations work well, what made 2016, which felt so different, fairly normal?If non-traditional explanations matter more, what made 2016 so extraordinary?How well do you think your findings from 2016 will apply to the 2020 presidential election, and why?Lastly, please include a properly formatted reference section, labeled References, starting on a separate page. The reference section must include all of the sources you cite in your paper.In addition to the content described above, your grade will be affected by style and format. Please make sure of the following:Pages must be numberedCitations and references must be properly and consistently formattedAll citations must have a reference and all references must be cited in the paperThere is a separate title pageSections have appropriate headings (no heading for the introduction; every other section has a heading)The introduction starts on a new page and the paper continues without break until the end of the conclusionAvoid hanging headings and split tablesYour paper is well-written and free from spelling and grammatical errors
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DATA AND HYPOTHESES
1
Data and Hypotheses
DATA AND HYPOTHESES
2
Data and Hypotheses
Dependent Variable
The dependent variable is vote choice, which is measured as a categorical variable. The
respondents were asked the presidential candidates that they voted for in 2016 and were given
four choices to choose from. The choices include Clinton, Trump, others, and not applicable. The
aim of the study is to determine how different factors affect vote choice of the respondents.
Independent Variables
The first independent variable is the party identification of the respondent, which is
measured as a categorical variable. The respondents were given several choices to choose from,
and their choices were meant to determine the strength of the respondent’s party affiliation. The
choices to choose from include strong democrat, weak democrat, independent democrat,
independent, independent republican, weak republican, and strong republican. From the results,
most respondents are strong democrats followed by strong republicans, while the least
respondents are not affiliated to any party.
The second independent variable was the health insurance plan, which was measured as a
categorical variable. The variable represents the preference of the respondents in terms of
insurance plans, whether to have government health plans and private health plans and the
variabilities on the implementation level. The responses were on a seven-point scale with 1 being
a government insurance plan, which would cover all medical, hospital, and related expenses for
everyone and 7 being medical expenses should be paid by individuals through private insurance
plans. From the results, it is evident that most respondents prefer a government insurance plan
which would cover all medical, hospital, and related expenses for everyone.
DATA AND HYPOTHESES
3
The third independent variable is the marital status of the respondents, which was
measured as a categorical variable. The choices in which the respondents should choose from
include married, domestic partner, widowed, divorced/separated, and not applicable. The results
show that many of the respondents are married, followed by those who have never been married.
The ones who form the smallest junk of the respondents in matters of marital status are those
who are widowed.
The fourth independent variable is respondent’s racial self-identification, which identifies
the respondents with their races. The variable is a categorical variable, with respondents having
to choose from white, black, Hispanic, other, and not applicable. From the results, most
respondents were white, followed by black and Hispanic, while others had the least number.
Hypotheses
Hypothesis 1: Party affiliation of the respondent has an impact on the vote choice.
Hypothesis 2: The preference in the health insurance plan of the respondent has an impact on the
vote choice.
Hypothesis 3: The marital status of the respondent has an impact on the vote choice.
Hypothesis 4: The racial self-identification of the respondent has an impact on the vote choice.
Methodology
The data will be analyzed, and the hypothesis tested using cross-tabulation. Cross
tabulation is an important analytical tool that is mainly used to analyze data that is measured on a
categorical scale (Michael, 2001). Since the data in question is categorical data, cross-tabulation
is the best analytical tool that can be used to test the hypotheses of this study. Cross tabulation
records the frequency of the respondents that have the specific characteristics described in the
DATA AND HYPOTHESES
4
cells of the table. Further, it also provides a wealth of information about the relationship between
the variables in question. As such, the cross-tabulation will provide the voting choices of the
respondents across all the elements of the independent variables. For instance, the respondents
who voted for Trump will be shown in the cross-tabulation table by their party affiliation.
The chi-square statistic will be used to test whether the cross-tabulation table is
significant. The chi-square statistics will determine whether or not the dependent variable and
each of the dependent variables has no relationship (Michael, 2001). If the dependent variable
and any of the independent variables have no relationship, then the results of the statistical test
will be non-significant, which implies that we will fail to reject the hypothesis, which implies
that there shall be no relationship between the variables (Michael, 2001). If there is a relationship
between the variables, then the results shall be statistically significant, and we will reject the null
hypothesis and conclude that there is some relationship between the variables.
A sample of 6000 respondents was randomly chosen in the US and asked to fill the online
questionnaire. The respondents were informed that it was for research purposes, and as such,
they filled the questionnaires at their own will. The questionnaires were administered to the
respondents through an online platform. A sample of 6000 was appropriate for the study since it
is a large sample and fulfills the central limit theorem for normality. Further, such a large sample
implies that the study can be generalized to the whole population.
DATA AND HYPOTHESES
5
References
Michael, R. S. (2001). Crosstabulation & chi square. Indiana University, Bloomington, IN. URL
http://www. indiana. edu/~ educy520/sec5982/we ek_12/chi_sq_summary011020. pdf
(Visited 2010, June 15).
POL 409
Tables for Assignment 9
Results & Discussion
The end of this document includes all of the Figures you need for the Results section of your
paper. Remember that I am asking you for the following analyses:
1. What is the relationship between party identification and vote choice?
2. What is the relationship between trade attitudes and vote choice?
3. What is the relationship between income and vote choice:
o How did high/middle/low income whites vote?
o How did high/middle/low income blacks vote?
o How did high/middle/low income Latinx people vote?
o How did high/middle/low income Asians vote?
4. What is the relationship between sexist attitudes and vote choice?
o Does/how does this relationship change if the respondent thinks undocumented
immigrants should stay in the US?
o Does/how does this relationship change if the respondent thinks undocumented
immigrants should be deported?
o Which variable (sexism or immigration attitudes) do you think matters more:
sexism or opinions on undocumented immigrants?
In Assignment 8, you should have come up with an argument or hypothesis to answer each
question. The Results section is where you will use the figures to see if the argument you made is
right.
The figures come from cross-tabulations of the dependent variable (vote choice) by each of the
independent variables. The first two figures come directly from the analysis program in
SETUPS. Ignore the color choices. They are determined automatically, which unfortunately
made Clinton red and Trump blue.
The second two figures, which are more complex and include more information, were made in
Excel. I combined all of the information into a single figure for each question so that you do not
have to interpret four figures per question.
The Results part of the assignment should follow the format of figure then explanation for each
of the questions above. Your explanation should address all of the results that are presented in
the figure and, above all, answer the questions. Given that you have already provided
answers/hypotheses, you should state whether your suspected answer is correct. I provide an
example of how your Results section should look using the last question below.
After your Results section, you will write the Discussion section of your paper. As a reminder,
here is what your Discussion section should include:
•
•
•
•
•
Reiterate the research question and state the major findings from your analyses.
Explain the meaning of your findings and in particular answer the question of what
explains the results you observed. This is especially important if any of your findings are
surprising, unexpected, or conflict with the existing literature.
Address why your findings are important. Answer the question of why your classmates,
society, and I should care about what you found. How do your findings help us
understand the world, current politics, an important problem, etc.?
Address how your findings relate to findings in the literature you cited. What are the
similarities? What are the differences? Do your findings address any gaps or
inconsistencies in the literature and, if so, how?
Address alternative explanations for your findings. Your findings and discussion
throughout your paper likely point to a particular explanation at this point. This
explanation is going to become your thesis. You should, however, also pay attention to
other potential explanations for your findings—other reasons why you found what you
did. These will likely come from the literature and you may have to go back and reread a
few sources to find them.
Results Example
Vote by Sexism by Immigration Attitudes
Overall, increasing sexism decreases the likelihood of voting for Clinton. Increasing
leniency for undocumented immigrants increases voting for Clinton. Each of the lines above
represents a group of people with particular views on undocumented immigrants. Each line
slopes down, more or less. This means that for each group of people, the more sexist their views
are, the less likely they were to vote for Secretary Clinton. That relationship (more sexist, fewer
people voting for Clinton) seems to generally exist for all groups, except for people who think
the undocumented should remain in the U.S. without penalties. Sexism had little influence over
the way these people voted. In comparison to views on undocumented immigration, sexism
seems to have had less of an influence on how people voted.
Looking at all four lines, the change in the percentage of people voting for Clinton
moving from low sexism to high sexism ranges between 20 and 40 points. For example, consider
people who think it should be a felony to enter the country illegally and that individuals who
have entered illegally should be deported. At the lowest level of sexism, about 40\% of these
individuals voted for Clinton. At the highest level of sexism, almost 20\% voted for Clinton, a
difference of just over 20 points. For one of the more moderate groups, those who think the
undocumented should remain in the U.S., but with penalties or requirements, 80\% of those at the
lowest level of sexism voted for Clinton. At the highest level of sexism, 40\% voted for Clinton, a
difference of 40 points.
Attitudes on undocumented immigration seem to have a much larger effect on voting
behavior. At its smallest (for people with the lowest level of sexism), the difference between
those who think undocumented immigrants should be deported and those who think
undocumented immigrants should remain without penalties is over 50 points. At its largest, this
gap is over 80 points.
Figures to Use in Your Paper
Analysis for Question 1
Analysis for Question 2
Analysis for Question 3
Vote by Income by Race
100
90
Percent Vote for Clinton
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
< $20K
$20-$35K
White
$35-$55K
$55-$80K
Income Level
Black
Latinx
Analysis for Question 4
Vote by Sexism by Immigration Attitudes
$80-$125K
Asian
> $125K
1
Carlos A. Salinas Cruz
Professor: Sherman Lee
POL 225
05/13/2020
An Annotated Bibliography: 2016 Presidential Campaign
Bakir, Vian, and Andrew McStay. Fake news and the economy of emotions: Problems,
causes, solutions. Digital Journalism 6.2 (2018): 154-175.
In this article, the authors examined the 2016 US presidential elections campaign aiming
at identifying hitches with origins of or resolutions to the current fake newscast phenomenon. In
ensuring that they offered credible information, the authors employed textual feedback and
analysis from engagement, panels, or meetings with technologists, non-profits, media, academics,
public relations, and analytics firms. Bakir et al. note that bogus news might have prejudiced the
2016 presidential election results. The authors indicate that journalists drew a significant quantity
of counterfeit news surge on Facebook throughout the 2016 presidential voting campaign to
computer science scholars and youngsters in Macedonia who created multiple United States policy
websites. The source is relevant to my research since the authors indicate that regardless of if the
bogus news influenced the election, prevalent recirculating of untruths posturing as news cannot
portend well for realistic foundations where citizens form ideas and states consequential
democratic health.
2
Conley, Brian. Thinking What He Says: Market Research and the Making of Donald
Trump’s 2016 Presidential Campaign. Political Marketing in the 2016 US
Presidential Election. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2018. 29-48.
In this article, the author assesses the degree to which Trumps campaign depended on a
market study in determining who was targeted by the movement and how Trump was positioned
with precise voter segments. According to Conley, a lot has been done concerning the eccentric
nature of Trumps 2016 campaign. The author notes that Trumps will to indulge in offense and
individual attack politics to his almost total dependence on massive rallies and made media made
him defy what a presidential contender is anticipated to act. However, Conley notes that Trump
did one thing which must benefit USA presidential candidates. The author notes that Trump
established his main communication and strategy, placing on thorough research considerate of how
some voters besieged by his ideologies behaved or thought diplomatically. The source is relevant
for my research because it reviews the exclusive role which market study plays in marketpositioned politics. Consequently, the author evaluates how vital research-established voter
separation and target occurred in Trumps general policy alignment.
Darwish, Kareem, Walid Magdy, and Tahar Zanouda. Trump vs. Hillary: What went
viral during the 2016 US presidential election. International conference on social
informatics. Springer, Cham, 2017.
This article highlights what transpired throughout the 2016 US presidential voting.
Darwish et al. presented a qualitative or quantitative analysis concerning the topmost tweets about
the US elections from 1st September 2016 to 8th November 2016, which was the voting date. In
making their study credible, the authors marked the top fifty most retweeted opinions as attacking
or supporting either candidate. From the results, the authors highlighted some differences amidst
3
social media approaches for both contenders, message diffusion, and the possible effect of bouts.
The source is relevant since the authors showed that Trumps campaigns appeared more effective
compared to that of Clinton. The movements were effective in promoting campaign actions in
swing regions.
Enli, Gunn. Twitter as an arena for the authentic outsider: exploring the social media
campaigns of Trump and Clinton in the 2016 US presidential election. European
journal of communication 32.1 (2017): 50-61.
In this article, the authors explore twitter as an arena through which campaigns of Clinton
and Trump in the 2016 presidential vote occurred. The author notes that during the 2016 US
elections crusade, social media channels were gradually utilized as an unswerving news source
where it bypassed editorial media. According to Enli, Twitter is nowadays a podium for mass
communiqué and the contenders main online info channel, considering candidates have millions
of followers. Also, the author notes that social media has offered a channel for critiquing and
debating the conventional media through networks and campaigns. The source is relevant for my
research since it discusses the twitter strategies applied by Clinton and Trump throughout the US
2016 premier election campaigns. Enli notes that whereas the Clinton campaign strategy confirmed
theories regarding election professionalism campaigns, the Trump campaigns appeared more
unprofessional. Yet, reliable elegance in social media pointed toward de-professionalism as a
counter-drift in political communication.
4
Guess, Andrew, Brendan Nyhan, and Jason Reifler. Selective exposure to misinformation:
Evidence from the consumption of fake news during the 2016 US presidential
campaign. European Research Council 9 (2018): 1-49.
This article discusses selective acquaintance to misinformation by deriving evidence from
consuming fake newscasts in the 2016 presidential campaigning. The author notes that despite
warnings concerning online echo chambers, being hyperbolic propensities towards selective
acquaintance to diplomatically amiable content is probably leading to misrepresentation and being
aggravated via social media channels. In making their research credible, the authors tested the
prediction utilizing data on accurately dubious articles termed as fake news. From the data
estimation, the authors established that around 1 in 4 Americans checked a counterfeit news site
from October 7-November 14, 2016. Guess et al., indicated that Trump followers are the one who
saw most bogus news sites which were devastatingly pro-Trump. The source is relevant for my
research since the authors noted that counterfeit news consumption augmented substantially as the
2016 voting approached. Therefore, the article shall offer broad knowledge concerning the issue
of fake news during the 2016 presidential campaign.
Hart, Roderick P. The people’s voice during the 2016 presidential campaign. American
Behavioral Scientist 61.6 (2017): 566-583.
In this article, the authors examined the 2016 presidential movement by comparing peoples
voice with that of political establishment and press. In making their source credible, the authors
collected some five thousand texts during the crusade and compared them with 1200 letters to the
editor scripted in twelve minor American metropolises. According to Hart, the 2016 presidential
campaign appeared to have sharper relief after comparing the sample texts with similar ones
gathered from 1948 through 2012. Hart notes that the 2016 presidential campaign is an exciting
5
site for study. The author indicates that Trump and Clinton performed various unorthodox things
during the campaign, where they combined traditional and social media campaigns with
considerable serendipity amounts. According to Hart, the press also established new customs
through blanketing the crusade with Web-based exposure 24/7 running an unparalleled number of
civic opinion polls and offering Trump with approximately $2 billion value of free broadcasting
coverage. The source is relevant for my research since the author established that all trio voices,
including politicians, people, and the press were more philosophical and stringent in 2016
compared to prior years.
Howard, Philip N., Samuel Woolley, and Ryan Calo. Algorithms, bots, and political
communication in the US 2016 election: The challenge of automated political
communication for election law and administration. Journal of information
technology & politics 15.2 (2018): 81-93.
This article discusses algorithms, bots as well as political communication in the 2016
election. Howard et al., notes that political communiqué is a process of placing information,
technology together with media in power provision. The authors illustrated how political bots are
used in manipulating public view and explaining how systems are the critical new realm of
investigation for political communication scholars. According to Howard et al., in the US 2016
elections, highly automatic accounts were utilized in spreading politically inspired rumors, sharing
junk newscasts, and providing U ...
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