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Pre-position and pre-planning. please see the question the file attached. logistic support bb.20.docx preposition_article_nps.pdf Unformatted Attachment Preview In the Preposition NPS article, review the value of prepositioning disaster supplies ahead of a disaster. In each case presented, determine if the effort to move supplies made a significant impact on the success or failure of the event. Select one event and provide an example of an action that would have provided a better outcome for the disaster. Briefly explain how you came to that conclusion. Provide two responses later NPS-LM-11-188 ^`nrfpfqflk=obpb^o`e= pmlkploba=obmloq=pbofbp= = Strategies for Logistics in Case of a Natural Disaster 28 September 2011 by Dr. Aruna Apte, Assistant Professor, and Dr. Keenan D. Yoho, Assistant Professor Graduate School of Business & Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited. Prepared for: Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93943 = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v= k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Report Documentation Page Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED 2. REPORT TYPE 28 SEP 2011 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Strategies for Logistics in Case of a Natural Disaster 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School,Graduate School of Business & Public Policy,Monterey,CA,93943 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT The need to effectively and efficiently provide emergency supplies and services is increasing all over the world. We investigate four policy options? prepositioning supplemental resources, preemptive as well as phased deployment of assets, and a surge of supplies and services?as potential strategies for responding to a disaster. We illustrate the linkage between our four policy options and a disaster classification based upon disaster localization (dispersed or local) and speed of disaster onset (slow or sudden). We summarize our work by introducing a matrix that aligns logistics strategies with disaster types in order to assist policymakers in their resource management decisions. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE unclassified unclassified unclassified 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18. NUMBER OF PAGES Same as Report (SAR) 43 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 The research presented in this report was supported by the Acquisition Chair of the Graduate School of Business & Public Policy at the Naval Postgraduate School. To request Defense Acquisition Research or to become a research sponsor, please contact: NPS Acquisition Research Program Attn: James B. Greene, RADM, USN, (Ret.) Acquisition Chair Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School 555 Dyer Road, Room 332 Monterey, CA 93943-5103 Tel: (831) 656-2092 Fax: (831) 656-2253 E-mail: jbgreene@nps.edu Copies of the Acquisition Sponsored Research Reports may be printed from our website www.acquisitionresearch.net = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v= k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= Abstract The need to effectively and efficiently provide emergency supplies and services is increasing all over the world. We investigate four policy options— prepositioning supplemental resources, preemptive as well as phased deployment of assets, and a surge of supplies and services—as potential strategies for responding to a disaster. We illustrate the linkage between our four policy options and a disaster classification based upon disaster localization (dispersed or local) and speed of disaster onset (slow or sudden). We summarize our work by introducing a matrix that aligns logistics strategies with disaster types in order to assist policymakers in their resource management decisions. Keywords: logistics, natural disaster, humanitarian assistance, humanitarian aid, disaster response = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= -i- THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= - ii - About the Authors Dr. Aruna Apte has successfully completed various research projects, involving application of mathematical models and optimization techniques that have led to over 20 research articles and one patent. Her research interests are in developing mathematical models for complex, real-world operational problems using optimization tools. She values that her research be applicable. Currently her research is focused in humanitarian and military logistics. She has several publications in journals, such as Interfaces, Naval Research Logistics, Production and Operations Management. She has recently published a monograph on Humanitarian Logistics. Aruna has over twenty years of experience teaching operations management, operations research, and mathematics courses at the undergraduate and graduate levels. She has advised emergency planners in preparing for disaster response. She is the founding and current president for a new college (focus group) in Humanitarian Operations and Crisis Management under the flagship academic professional society in her intellectual area of study, Production and Operations Management Society. Dr. Keenan Yoho’s primary research activities are in the area of analyzing alternatives under conditions of uncertainty and resource scarcity. Keenan’s primary research activities lie in the analysis of alternatives for capital purchases under conditions of resource scarcity, supply chain management, risk analysis, humanitarian assistance and disaster response, and resource management in environments that exhibit high degrees of uncertainty. Dr. Aruna Apte Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5000 Tel: 831-656-7583 Fax: (831) 656-3407 E-mail:auapte@nps.edu Dr. Keenan D. Yoho Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5000 Tel: 831-656-2029 Fax: (831) 656-3407 E-mail: kdyoho@nps.edu = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= - iii - THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK = = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= = - iv - NPS-LM-11-188 ^`nrfpfqflk=obpb^o`e= pmlkploba=obmloq=pbofbp= = Strategies for Logistics in Case of a Natural Disaster 28 September 2011 by Dr. Aruna Apte, Assistant Professor, and Dr. Keenan D. Yoho, Assistant Professor Graduate School of Business & Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School Disclaimer: The views represented in this report are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy position of the Navy, the Department of Defense, or the Federal Government. = = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= = -v- THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK = = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= = - vi - Table of Contents I. Introduction .............................................................................................. 1 II. Literature Review ..................................................................................... 5 III. Disaster Life Cycles ................................................................................. 7 IV. Disaster Classification ............................................................................. 9 V. VI. A. Indian Ocean “Boxing Day” Tsunami of 2004 ................................ 10 B. Haiti 2010 Earthquake ................................................................... 11 C. Hurricane Katrina .......................................................................... 12 D. Influenza “Swine Flu” Epidemic of 2009 ........................................ 12 Discussion .............................................................................................. 15 A. Prepositioning ................................................................................ 15 B. Proactive Deployment ................................................................... 17 C. Phased Deployment ...................................................................... 18 D. Surge Capacity .............................................................................. 20 Conclusion.............................................................................................. 21 List of References ............................................................................................. 25 = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= - vii - THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= - viii - I. Introduction In 2009 there were 335 natural disasters reported worldwide that killed 10,655 persons, affected more than 119 million others, and caused over $41.3 billion in economic damages (Vos, Rodriguez, Below, & Guha-Sapir. 2009). The number of natural disasters reported between 1900 and 2010 has increased significantly and, with it, the number of requests for aid and humanitarian assistance (see Figure 1). While the trend in the number of disasters reported shows an increase, it is not clear that there has been a commensurate response in terms of preparedness. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) reports that of all funds used to support disaster operations, 90\% are spent for response, whereas 10\% are spent on preparedness activities and investments and risk reduction (A. Giegerich, personal communication, September 21, 2010). The United Nations estimates that every dollar spent to prepare for a disaster saves seven dollars in disaster response (United Nations Human Development Program, 2007). 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Figure 1. Number of Disasters Reported from 1900–2010 (EM–DAT, 2011) = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v= k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= = -1- Although the objective of all the organizations and agencies involved in humanitarian assistance is to reduce human suffering and casualties, the duration and severity of the human toll during a natural disaster is largely dependent upon the speed and scope of the response, which is often a function of the level of preparedness that has been established prior to the disaster event. While there are no internationally agreed upon metrics by which to judge or measure the effectiveness of a response to a disaster, scholars working in the humanitarian and disaster response research area have found that improvement is desirable (Apte, 2009; Van Wassenhove, 2006). An effective and efficient humanitarian response depends “on the ability of logisticians to procure, transport and receive supplies at the site of a humanitarian relief effort” (Thomas, 2003). In this research we focus on the response to a disaster area in the form of distributing supplies, and strategies that will enhance the effectiveness of such a response. For the purpose of this research, we accept the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters’ (CRED) definition of disaster, which is “a situation or event which overwhelms local capacity, necessitating a request to a national or international level for external assistance.” The unpredictability of the timing of a disaster, as well as the scope of its human and material destruction, raises several serious questions for emergency planners and first responders. For example, how can a state of supply preparedness be established and maintained? How should adequate prepositioned disaster relief inventory be established and sustained over time, to include the rotation of perishable stocks? How can information regarding the location, quantity, and condition of prepositioned inventory be shared, and what effect would this information sharing have on the total investment of prepositioned stocks? Is prepositioning the best strategy for all types of disasters? How reliable are the potential supply lines if it is determined that supplies should be virtually stockpiled (that is, a detailed list or database of supplies by type and quantity is created and maintained, as well as reliable sources that can provide the supplies quickly)? = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v= k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= = -2- Should the supplies be sourced locally or from outside the disaster zone? Answers to these questions depend on the expected onset speed of the disaster, the volume and weight of supplies to be moved, the expected magnitude of humanitarian relief required, and the expected likelihood of a disaster in the area. As part of our investigation we explore four policy options: (1) prepositioning supplemental resources in or near the incident location; (2) proactive deployment of assets in advance of a request; (3) phased deployment of assets and supplies, analogous to the “just in time” inventory control philosophy practiced by many commercial manufacturers; and (4) “surge” transportation of manpower and equipment from locations outside the disaster area. = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v= k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= = -3- THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v= k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= = -4- II. Literature Review One of the major issues in a response supply chain in case of a natural disaster is to coordinate the operations and relief inventories over a large number of stages, locations, and organizations. This has to be done while providing the emergency supplies and services to the affected population under extreme conditions. Decisions regarding the types of provisions that should be prepositioned, as well as their location, should be made well before a disaster strikes in order to provide quick response. To some extent, without such a high level of uncertainty and an adverse environment, it is similar to the core question in supply chain management of coordinating activities and inventories over a spectrum of stages of the supply chain and facility locations of the inventory (Schoenmeyr & Graves, 2009). In the private sector, it has been found that if each individual stage in a serialsystem of the supply chain operates with a designated base stock policy with service guarantees, then the optimal safety stock strategy is to maintain inventory at certain key locations, which results in separating the stages of the supply chain; this type of policy allows each stage to operate independently by minimizing the need for communication and coordination amongst players (Simpson, 1958; Graves & Willems, 2002). Models available in supply chain management literature are predominantly with unlimited capacity for storage. In cases where there is unlimited capacity, the amount of safety stock needed is less than the level needed with capacity constraint (Schoenmeyr & Graves, 2009). The determination of the optimal placement of safety stock in a supply chain has been addressed by Simpson (1958) and Schoenmeyr and Graves (2008), where there are evolving or predetermined forecasts, and by Graves and Willems (2002), where there is uncertain, as well as non-stationary, demand. This concept can explain the response supply chain where there exists uncertainty for the quantity required, as well as what is required (Apte, 2009; Ergun, Karakus, Keskinocak, = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v= k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= = -5- Swann, & Villareal, 2009). Rawls and Turnquist (2010) developed a model for determining the location and quantity of supplies that should be prepositioned when there is uncertainty with respect to whether a disaster will occur and where it will occur, and built upon this work by adding service quality constraints (Rawls & Turnquist, 2011) to ensure the probability of meeting demand and the average shipment distance is within a specified parameter. In addition to the prepositioning of relief inventories, a disaster response may require the formulation of policies that require the expansion of warehouses, medical facilities, and temporary shelters, while infrastructure preparation may include the provision of airstrips and ramp space at existing airfields (Salmeron & Apte, 2010). Koavacs and Spens (2009) weighed the difference between traditional commercial logistics and humanitarian logistics. With humanitarian logistics, it is imperative to go beyond the profitability of commercial logistics. Within the domain of humanitarian logistics, suppliers have different motivations for participating, and customers do not generate voluntary demand. It is clear that in most cases a “repeat purchase” is not a possibility. Thus, supply networks must take into account the lack of true demand. Demand is dictated by the relief agencies that are the primary actors within this framework. Therefore, it is the responsibility of the agency to “push” the supplies to the disaster location in the immediate response phase, which is different from the commercial philosophy of pull-based demand. Humanitarian logistics focuses on getting the greatest volume of supplies to the points where they are needed, and there may be lessons learned in the commercial sector that could be used to improve the planning and execution of strategies that could be implemented during a disaster response. = = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=mêçÖê~ã= do^ar^qb=p`elli=lc=_rpfkbpp=C=mr_if`=mlif`v= k^s^i=mlpqdo^ar^qb=p`elli= = -6- III. Disaster Life Cycles The life cycle of a disaster from the perspective of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) is divided into three stages (as illustrated in Figure 2): being prepared in the pre-disaster stage, response as the disaster strikes, and recovery in post-disaster (Apte 2009; Van Wassenhove, 2006). RESPONSE PREPAREDNESS RECOVERY Asset Prepositioning Infrastructure Preparation Pre-Disaster Ramp Up ... Purchase answer to see full attachment