1 page reflection of reading - Business Finance
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CHAPTER THREE
THE DISCOVERY OF BEHAVIORAL
SURPLUS
He watched the stars and noted birds in flight;
A river flooded or a fortress fell:
He made predictions that were sometimes right;
His lucky guesses were rewarded well.
—W. H. AUDEN
SONNETS FROM CHINA, VI
I. Google: The Pioneer of Surveillance Capitalism
Google is to surveillance capitalism what the Ford Motor Company and General
Motors were to mass-production–based managerial capitalism. New economic
logics and their commercial models are discovered by people in a time and place
and then perfected through trial and error. In our time Google became the
pioneer, discoverer, elaborator, experimenter, lead practitioner, role model, and
diffusion hub of surveillance capitalism. GM and Ford’s iconic status as
pioneers of twentieth-century capitalism made them enduring objects of
scholarly research and public fascination because the lessons they had to teach
resonated far beyond the individual companies. Google’s practices deserve the
same kind of examination, not merely as a critique of a single company but
rather as the starting point for the codification of a powerful new form of
capitalism.
With the triumph of mass production at Ford and for decades thereafter,
hundreds of researchers, businesspeople, engineers, journalists, and scholars
would excavate the circumstances of its invention, origins, and consequences.1
Decades later, scholars continued to write extensively about Ford, the man and
the company.2 GM has also been an object of intense scrutiny. It was the site of
Peter Drucker’s field studies for his seminal Concept of the Corporation, the
1946 book that codified the practices of the twentieth-century business
organization and established Drucker’s reputation as a management sage. In
addition to the many works of scholarship and analysis on these two firms, their
own leaders enthusiastically articulated their discoveries and practices. Henry
Ford and his general manager, James Couzens, and Alfred Sloan and his
marketing man, Henry “Buck” Weaver, reflected on, conceptualized, and
proselytized their achievements, specifically locating them in the evolutionary
drama of American capitalism.3
Google is a notoriously secretive company, and one is hard-pressed to
imagine a Drucker equivalent freely roaming the scene and scribbling in the
hallways. Its executives carefully craft their messages of digital evangelism in
books and blog posts, but its operations are not easily accessible to outside
researchers or journalists.4 In 2016 a lawsuit brought against the company by a
product manager alleged an internal spying program in which employees are
expected to identify coworkers who violate the firm’s confidentiality agreement:
a broad prohibition against divulging anything about the company to anyone.5
The closest thing we have to a Buck Weaver or James Couzens codifying
Google’s practices and objectives is the company’s longtime chief economist,
Hal Varian, who aids the cause of understanding with scholarly articles that
explore important themes. Varian has been described as “the Adam Smith of the
discipline of Googlenomics” and the “godfather” of its advertising model.6 It is
in Varian’s work that we find hidden-in-plain-sight important clues to the logic
of surveillance capitalism and its claims to power.
In two extraordinary articles in scholarly journals, Varian explored the theme
of “computer-mediated transactions” and their transformational effects on the
modern economy.7 Both pieces are written in amiable, down-to-earth prose, but
Varian’s casual understatement stands in counterpoint to his often-startling
declarations: “Nowadays there is a computer in the middle of virtually every
transaction… now that they are available these computers have several other
uses.”8 He then identifies four such new uses: “data extraction and analysis,”
“new contractual forms due to better monitoring,” “personalization and
customization,” and “continuous experiments.”
Varian’s discussions of these new “uses” are an unexpected guide to the
strange logic of surveillance capitalism, the division of learning that it shapes,
and the character of the information civilization toward which it leads. We will
return to Varian’s observations from time to time in the course of our
examination of the foundations of surveillance capitalism, aided by a kind of
“reverse engineering” of his assertions, so that we might grasp the worldview
and methods of surveillance capitalism through this lens. “Data extraction and
analysis,” Varian writes, “is what everyone is talking about when they talk about
big data.” “Data” are the raw material necessary for surveillance capitalism’s
novel manufacturing processes. “Extraction” describes the social relations and
material infrastructure with which the firm asserts authority over those raw
materials to achieve economies of scale in its raw-material supply operations.
“Analysis” refers to the complex of highly specialized computational systems
that I will generally refer to in these chapters as “machine intelligence.” I like
this umbrella phrase because it trains us on the forest rather than the trees,
helping us decenter from technology to its objectives. But in choosing this
phrase I also follow Google’s lead. The company describes itself “at the
forefront of innovation in machine intelligence,” a term in which it includes
machine learning as well as “classical” algorithmic production, along with many
computational operations that are often referred to with other terms such as
“predictive analytics” or “artificial intelligence.” Among these operations
Google cites its work on language translation, speech recognition, visual
processing, ranking, statistical modeling, and prediction: “In all of those tasks
and many others, we gather large volumes of direct or indirect evidence of
relationships of interest, applying learning algorithms to understand and
generalize.”9 These machine intelligence operations convert raw material into
the firm’s highly profitable algorithmic products designed to predict the behavior
of its users. The inscrutability and exclusivity of these techniques and operations
are the moat that surrounds the castle and secures the action within.
Google’s invention of targeted advertising paved the way to financial success,
but it also laid the cornerstone of a more far-reaching development: the
discovery and elaboration of surveillance capitalism. Its business is characterized
as an advertising model, and much has been written about Google’s automated
auction methods and other aspects of its inventions in the field of online
advertising. With so much verbiage, these developments are both over-described
and under-theorized. Our aim in this chapter and those that follow in Part I is to
reveal the “laws of motion” that drive surveillance competition, and in order to
do this we begin by looking freshly at the point of origin, when the foundational
mechanisms of surveillance capitalism were first discovered.
Before we begin, I want to say a word about vocabulary. Any confrontation
with the unprecedented requires new language, and I introduce new terms when
existing language fails to capture a new phenomenon. Sometimes, however, I
intentionally repurpose familiar language because I want to stress certain
continuities in the function of an element or process. This is the case with “laws
of motion,” borrowed from Newton’s laws of inertia, force, and equal and
opposite reactions.
Over the years historians have adopted this term to describe the “laws” of
industrial capitalism. For example, economic historian Ellen Meiksins Wood
documents the origins of capitalism in the changing relations between English
property owners and tenant farmers, as the owners began to favor productivity
over coercion: “The new historical dynamic allows us to speak of ‘agrarian
capitalism’ in early modern England, a social form with distinctive ‘laws of
motion’ that would eventually give rise to capitalism in its mature, industrial
form.”10 Wood describes how the new “laws of motion” eventually manifested
themselves in industrial production:
The critical factor in the divergence of capitalism from all other forms of “commercial society”
was the development of certain social property relations that generated market imperatives and
capitalist “laws of motion”… competitive production and profit-maximization, the compulsion to
reinvest surpluses, and the relentless need to improve labour-productivity associated with
capitalism.… Those laws of motion required vast social transformations and upheavals to set them
in train. They required a transformation in the human metabolism with nature, in the provision of
life’s basic necessities.11
My argument here is that although surveillance capitalism does not abandon
established capitalist “laws” such as competitive production, profit
maximization, productivity, and growth, these earlier dynamics now operate in
the context of a new logic of accumulation that also introduces its own
distinctive laws of motion. Here and in following chapters, we will examine
these foundational dynamics, including surveillance capitalism’s idiosyncratic
economic imperatives defined by extraction and prediction, its unique approach
to economies of scale and scope in raw-material supply, its necessary
construction and elaboration of means of behavioral modification that
incorporate its machine-intelligence–based “means of production” in a more
complex system of action, and the ways in which the requirements of behavioral
modification orient all operations toward totalities of information and control,
creating the framework for an unprecedented instrumentarian power and its
societal implications. For now, my aim is to reconstruct our appreciation of
familiar ground through new lenses: Google’s early days of optimism, crisis, and
invention.
II. A Balance of Power
Google was incorporated in 1998, founded by Stanford graduate students Larry
Page and Sergey Brin just two years after the Mosaic browser threw open the
doors of the world wide web to the computer-using public. From the start, the
company embodied the promise of information capitalism as a liberating and
democratic social force that galvanized and delighted second-modernity
populations around the world.
Thanks to this wide embrace, Google successfully imposed computer
mediation on broad new domains of human behavior as people searched online
and engaged with the web through a growing roster of Google services. As these
new activities were informated for the first time, they produced wholly new data
resources. For example, in addition to key words, each Google search query
produces a wake of collateral data such as the number and pattern of search
terms, how a query is phrased, spelling, punctuation, dwell times, click patterns,
and location.
Early on, these behavioral by-products were haphazardly stored and
operationally ignored. Amit Patel, a young Stanford graduate student with a
special interest in “data mining,” is frequently credited with the groundbreaking
insight into the significance of Google’s accidental data caches. His work with
these data logs persuaded him that detailed stories about each user—thoughts,
feelings, interests—could be constructed from the wake of unstructured signals
that trailed every online action. These data, he concluded, actually provided a
“broad sensor of human behavior” and could be put to immediate use in
realizing cofounder Larry Page’s dream of Search as a comprehensive artificial
intelligence.12
Google’s engineers soon grasped that the continuous flows of collateral
behavioral data could turn the search engine into a recursive learning system that
constantly improved search results and spurred product innovations such as spell
check, translation, and voice recognition. As Kenneth Cukier observed at that
time,
Other search engines in the 1990s had the chance to do the same, but did not pursue it. Around
2000 Yahoo! saw the potential, but nothing came of the idea. It was Google that recognized the
gold dust in the detritus of its interactions with its users and took the trouble to collect it up.…
Google exploits information that is a by-product of user interactions, or data exhaust, which is
automatically recycled to improve the service or create an entirely new product.13
What had been regarded as waste material—“data exhaust” spewed into
Google’s servers during the combustive action of Search—was quickly
reimagined as a critical element in the transformation of Google’s search engine
into a reflexive process of continuous learning and improvement.
At that early stage of Google’s development, the feedback loops involved in
improving its Search functions produced a balance of power: Search needed
people to learn from, and people needed Search to learn from. This symbiosis
enabled Google’s algorithms to learn and produce ever-more relevant and
comprehensive search results. More queries meant more learning; more learning
produced more relevance. More relevance meant more searches and more
users.14 By the time the young company held its first press conference in 1999,
to announce a $25 million equity investment from two of the most revered
Silicon Valley venture capital firms, Sequoia Capital and Kleiner Perkins,
Google Search was already fielding seven million requests each day.15 A few
years later, Hal Varian, who joined Google as its chief economist in 2002, would
note, “Every action a user performs is considered a signal to be analyzed and fed
back into the system.”16 The Page Rank algorithm, named after its founder, had
already given Google a significant advantage in identifying the most popular
results for queries. Over the course of the next few years it would be the capture,
storage, analysis, and learning from the by-products of those search queries that
would turn Google into the gold standard of web search.
The key point for us rests on a critical distinction. During this early period,
behavioral data were put to work entirely on the user’s behalf. User data
provided value at no cost, and that value was reinvested in the user experience in
the form of improved services: enhancements that were also offered at no cost to
users. Users provided the raw material in the form of behavioral data, and those
data were harvested to improve speed, accuracy, and relevance and to help build
ancillary products such as translation. I call this the behavioral value
reinvestment cycle, in which all behavioral data are reinvested in the
improvement of the product or service (see Figure 1).
The cycle emulates the logic of the iPod; it worked beautifully at Google but
with one critical difference: the absence of a sustainable market transaction. In
the case of the iPod, the cycle was triggered by the purchase of a high-margin
physical product. Subsequent reciprocities improved the iPod product and led to
increased sales. Customers were the subjects of the commercial process, which
promised alignment with their “what I want, when I want, where I want”
demands. At Google, the cycle was similarly oriented toward the individual as
its subject, but without a physical product to sell, it floated outside the
marketplace, an interaction with “users” rather than a market transaction with
customers.
This helps to explain why it is inaccurate to think of Google’s users as its
customers: there is no economic exchange, no price, and no profit. Nor do users
function in the role of workers. When a capitalist hires workers and provides
them with wages and means of production, the products that they produce
belong to the capitalist to sell at a profit. Not so here. Users are not paid for their
labor, nor do they operate the means of production, as we’ll discuss in more
depth later in this chapter. Finally, people often say that the user is the “product.”
This is also misleading, and it is a point that we will revisit more than once. For
now let’s say that users are not products, but rather we are the sources of rawmaterial supply. As we shall see, surveillance capitalism’s unusual products
manage to be derived from our behavior while remaining indifferent to our
behavior. Its products are about predicting us, without actually caring what we
do or what is done to us.
To summarize, at this early stage of Google’s development, whatever Search
users inadvertently gave up that was of value to the company they also used up
in the form of improved services. In this reinvestment cycle, serving users with
amazing Search results “consumed” all the value that users created when they
provided extra behavioral data. The fact that users needed Search about as much
as Search needed users created a balance of power between Google and its
populations. People were treated as ends in themselves, the subjects of a
nonmarket, self-contained cycle that was perfectly aligned with Google’s stated
mission “to organize the world’s information, making it universally accessible
and useful.”
Figure 1: The Behavioral Value Reinvestment
Cycle
III. Search for Capitalism: Impatient Money and the State of
Exception
By 1999, despite the splendor of Google’s new world of searchable web pages,
its growing computer science capabilities, and its glamorous venture backers,
there was no reliable way to turn investors’ money into revenue. The behavioral
value reinvestment cycle produced a very cool search function, but it was not yet
capitalism. The balance of power made it financially risky and possibly
counterproductive to charge users a fee for search services. Selling search results
would also have set a dangerous precedent for the firm, assigning a price to
indexed information that Google’s web crawler had already taken from others
without payment. Without a device like Apple’s iPod or its digital songs, there
were no margins, no surplus, nothing left over to sell and turn into revenue.
Google had relegated advertising to steerage class: its AdWords team
consisted of seven people, most of whom shared the founders’ general antipathy
toward ads. The tone had been set in Sergey Brin and Larry Page’s milestone
paper that unveiled their search engine conception, “The Anatomy of a LargeScale Hypertextual Web Search Engine,” presented at the 1998 World Wide Web
Conference: “We expect that advertising funded search engines will be
inherently biased towards the advertisers and away from the needs of the
consumers. This type of bias is very difficult to detect but could still have a
significant effect on the market… we believe the issue of advertising causes
enough mixed incentives that it is crucial to have a competitive search engine
that is transparent and in the academic realm.”17
Google’s first revenues depended instead on exclusive licensing deals to
provide web services to portals such as Yahoo! and Japan’s BIGLOBE.18 It also
generated modest revenue from sponsored ads linked to search query
keywords.19 There were other models for consideration. Rival search engines
such as Overture, used exclusively by the then-giant portal AOL, or Inktomi, the
search engine adopted by Microsoft, collected revenues from the sites whose
pages they indexed. Overture was also successful in attracting online ads with its
policy of allowing advertisers to pay for high-ranking search listings, the very
format that Brin and Page scorned.20
Prominent analysts publicly doubted whether Google could compete with its
more-established rivals. As the New York Times asked, “Can Google create a
business model even remotely as good as its technology?”21 A well-known
Forrester Research analyst proclaimed that there were only a few ways for
Google to make money wi ...
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Losinski forwarded the article on a priority basis to Mary Scott
Losinksi wanted details on use of the ED at CGH. He asked the administrative resident